Who: Mississippi State Bulldogs (25-24, 9-15 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:
Friday: 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Sunday: 12:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchups
Friday: Nathan Dettmer (RHP, 5-2, 3.18) vs. Brandon Smith (RHP, 3-4, 4.58)
Saturday: TBA vs. Preston Johnson (RHP, 3-3, 5.51)
Sunday: TBA vs. Cade Smith (RHP, 4-2, 3.90)
The defending national champions have struggled in SEC play with a 9-15 record and are 25-24 overall. The Bulldogs are fighting for their postseason lives just trying to secure a spot in Hoover in hopes of a late-season run to steal an NCAA bid.
However, that road looks long and bumpy, and the road goes through College Station and a hot-hitting Aggie team. That’s not good for a team that has sustained three season-ending injuries on the pitching staff with a team ERA of 6.73 in the SEC.
The starting pitching has been solid and consistent, although not elite by any stretch. The Bulldog’s best pitcher statistically is Cade Smith (4-2, 3.90) and he’s scheduled to throw on Sunday. His hits-to-innings pitches ratio is .835 which is quite good. He’ll be a challenge with A&M looking to piece together a Sunday rotation as usual.
MSU head coach Chris Lemonis is also employing the reverse strategy to get a better match-up on Sunday. Friday starter Brandon Smith has made just six starts on the season and his 3-4 record and 4.58 ERA isn’t on par with a typical Friday night ace. Preston Johnson has been in the starting rotation for most of the season and has decent numbers (3-3, 5.51), but the Aggie lineup has typically devoured pitchers with such numbers.
Still, the starting rotation is solid top-to-bottom, but the bullpen is a disaster with the depleted staff. Pico Kohn is the only reliever with significant innings that has an ERA under 4.00 (3.66). After that, it’s not pretty from a Bulldog point of view and I’ll leave it at that.
On the other hand, Mississippi State has been very consistent offensively and will be formidable against an A&M pitching staff still trying to figure out some things. Looking at the offensive comparison below should show you just how good the Aggies have been at the plate because the Bulldogs are ranked third in most SEC offensive categories.
Unlike South Carolina, MSU doesn’t tail off at the bottom of the lineup. Seven of their top batters are hitting above .280. Seven hitters have at least seven home runs, and four MSU players have 12 or more bombs. The lineup is led by RJ Yeager with 16 homers and 50 RBIs. He’s followed by Hunter Hines with 14 dingers and 49 RBIs.
The Bulldogs rank second in the SEC in total bases, third in team batting average, third in slugging percentage, and third in home runs. With the wind expected to be blowing out and temperatures in the 90s, expect some shoot-outs this weekend.
| Hitting (SEC) | Avg. | Runs | Slugging % | On-Base % | Strikeouts |
| Texas A&M | .289 | 180 | .470 | .394 | 232 |
| Miss St. | .274 | 142 | .473 | .356 | 226 |
| Pitching (SEC) | ERA | WHIP | Walks | Opp. Avg. | Strikeouts | Fielding % |
| Texas A&M | 5.08 | 1.52 | 91 | .272 | 231 | .968 |
| Miss St. | 6.73 | 1.69 | 138 | .267 | 246 | .980 |
By this late in the season, most of you know the important storylines so I’ll be brief.
The Aggies are facing a very powerful MSU offense and with the wind expected to blow out all three days, the Aggies better find some consistent pitching from the likes of Joseph Menefee, Jacob Palisch, Micah Dallas, and Chris Cortez to name a few.
Each of these guys has delivered some stingy performances, but they’ve also given up too many crooked numbers in 2022.
Nathan Dettmer has to pitch like Nathan Dettmer and go secure game one. MSU is rolling the dice and pitching backward, so A&M has to take care of business Friday night with the advantage on the mound.
From there, Coach Schlossnagle has to get at least three good to solid outings from that list of four above. It would be great if Micah Dallas gets the nod on Saturday and gets back to being the Micah Dallas of February and March. That would completely change the complexion of this series, and frankly the rest of the season for the Aggies. But that’s also wishful thinking after a string of bad outings.
Still, the Aggies have to find a way to eat innings and piece together enough pitching and allow the A&M offense to get into a very weak Bulldog bullpen.
Another key for the pitching staff will be the performance of Wyatt Tucker, who could be making his first career SEC start. Officially, the Aggies have not named a Saturday or Sunday starter, but Coach SChlossnagle has hinted at using Tucker in the starting rotation this weekend. He’s pitched well recently, but he hasn’t been battle-tested as a weekend starter either.
On offense, what can I add here? You know the drill. The guys are leading the SEC in almost every major category and given MSU’s lack of depth in the bullpen, expect to see a lot of runs scored and a lot of hard-hit balls leave the yard for the Aggies. I do not expect many changes to the batting order this weekend. Why change what’s working, right?
We’re officially in the home stretch of SEC play and postseason scenarios are becoming very clear. Barring a stunning collapse, Texas A&M has essentially punched its ticket to the NCAA Regionals. The bigger question is whether the Aggies can earn a host spot and get back to Olsen Field for the NCAA Regionals for the first time in six years.
I think A&M secures that host spot with a 3-3 finish in SEC play and winning at least one game in Hoover at the SEC Tournament. If the Aggies can win its sixth straight series over MSU, that will mean needing only one win at Ole Miss next weekend to be on pace to safely host a regional.
There has been talk of the Aggies even earning a national top eight seed which means hosting a Super Regional if they advance past the initial NCAA Regional round. A&M has a lot of work to do to be a top-eight seed, but it’s definitely on the table.
Realistically, that would need to start with a sweep this weekend against the 9-15 Bulldogs and then win a pair of games in Oxford before winning a couple of games in Hoover. For now, let’s focus on securing an NCAA Regional host spot, and that means winning at least two this weekend.
