Series Preview: No. 14 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Mississippi State
Who: Mississippi State University (36-9, 13-8 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – College Station, TX
When:
- Thursday 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
- Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Saturday 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchups
Thursday: John Doxakis (LHP, 5-2, 1.81) vs. Keegan James (RHP, 3-1, 4.36)
Friday: Asa Lacy (LHP, 6-3, 2.23) vs. Ethan Small (LHP, 5-1, 2.05)
Saturday: Christian Roa (RHP, 2-1, 2.76) vs. JT Ginn (RHP, 8-2, 3.24)
Scouting Mississippi State
I know as a writer I’m supposed to hold off on bad news until the end of the article so you actually read the whole piece. But I’ll go ahead and rip the Band-Aid off quickly and let you know that this is not a good match-up for Texas A&M on paper. Luckily, the game isn’t played on paper. These games will be played at Olsen Field, so we’ll see if home cooking will balance the scales. Mississippi State has a great offense with a lineup full of .340-.390 hitters with power and speed. On the mound, only the Bulldog pitching staff can outdo the Aggies in terms of strikeouts and power pitching. On top of that, the MSU ace is a left-hander, which gives this Texas A&M lineup fits. So bottom line, the Bulldogs come into this weekend’s series with a very significant advantage at the plate, while being able to match the Aggies’ superior pitching. Of course, you expect these difficult match-ups when facing the No. 6 team in the nation and a fixture at the top of the SEC West division. Aggie fans should expect nothing less.
Diving into the details, MSU is hitting .318 as a team compared to Texas A&M’s .259. Braden Shewmake leads the Aggies (by far) in RBI with 41. The Bulldogs have four hitters with 41 or more RBI. Braden Shewmake leads A&M (by far) in slugging percentage with a .497 mark. The entire MSU lineup has an average slugging percentage of .491, with four hitters over .500 and one over .600. Mississippi State has the equivalent of seven Braden Shewmakes in their lineup.
MSU is led by one of the greatest college hitters of all-time, Jake Mangum. Last week, he became the all-time SEC hits leader with 355. He currently sits No. 12 in the NCAA with another 15+ games to move up that list. He is a hitting machine. He will get his hits. The issue is whether A&M pitching can strand him on base and not allow him to come to the plate with runners on-base. He’s hitting .394 with a team-leading .444 on-base percentage. However, it’s hard to work around Mangum when Jordan Westburg (.345, 47 RBI) and Justin Foscue (.340, 12 HR, 47 RBI) immediately follow him. There’s simply no break in the batting order. Six hitters have five or more home runs. The team leaders in home runs for Texas A&M (Shewmake and Blaum) have five, and that pair will likely be 1-2 in the order so any long balls will likely come with few men on-base.
On the mound, the Bulldogs have their own 1-2 punch in the starting rotation with lefty Ethan Small (5-1, 2.05, 114 K’s) and righty JT Ginn (8-2, 3.24, 77 K’s). Small is arguably the best pitcher in the SEC. He’s surrendered only 39 hits in 66 innings, and his WHIP of 0.85 is one of the best in the nation. That’s not to mention his whopping strikeout total of 114. By comparison, Asa Lacy has struck out 100 batters this season. Ginn’s numbers aren’t as gaudy as Small’s, but still very formidable. His 75 K’s this season is very similar to John Doxakis’ 77 strikeout count. All season, we’ve touted the combined strikeout total for Doxakis and Lacy. At 177 strikeouts, the duo is second in the nation in that category. However, Small and Ginn lead the nation with 189 K’s. This is going to be a huge challenge for an Aggie offense that has struggled all season against much weaker pitching. If there is one light at the end of the tunnel, the Bulldog bullpen is not very intimidating. The saves leader is Cole Gordon (8) who has a season ERA of 5.79. Jared Liebelt is the only MSU reliever with an ERA under 3.00 (2.97). The rest of the bullpen hovers between an ERA of 3.60-4.30. If A&M can somehow get to the bullpen, there is damage to be done. The big question: can they get into the bullpen?
Texas A&M storylines to watch
This is a tough one. A&M hitters have been aggressive and swinging at early count fastballs most of the season. That’s what has been taught, and it’s been the hitting strategy most of the season. This is not a good off-speed pitch hitting team, so the aggressiveness is a necessity to find an early count fastball. Unfortunately, opposing pitchers know this as well. If they can start off the count with an off-speed strike and consistently locate that pitch, Aggie hitters struggle significantly. This offense will be facing two elite strikeout pitchers on Friday and Saturday. Do they continue chasing with an aggressive approach that will limit the pitch counts of Small and Ginn and allow them to extend their outings deep into the game? Or does A&M change their plate strategy and go in taking pitches and being more selective, hoping that MSU will have to go to the bullpen in the 6th or 7th inning, and getting a crack at some of those 3.75-4.25 ERAs? It’s hard to ask a team to abruptly change their approach at the plate, but if there was ever a time to try, this might be it.
But before we get to Small and Ginn, there is the game tonight. Due to some fatigue and the early Thursday series start, head coach Chris Lemonis decided to leave his aces on regular rest and push them back to Friday and Saturday, forcing junior righty Keegan James into the series opener. His 3-1 record and 4.36 ERA isn’t nearly intimidating as the other starters, and the Aggies will definitely have the pitching advantage tonight with ace John Doxakis and his 1.81 ERA on the rubber in game one. Thus, it is critical for the Aggies to win this game. The advantage flips back around to Mississippi State for games two and three, so tonight is crucial not only for the series but for postseason play as well.
To be successful, the offense will need to score more than 2-3 runs to beat the dynamic Bulldog offense. Even with guys like Doxakis and Lacy throwing for the Aggies, MSU will get their share of runs. Given the pitching they will face Friday and Saturday, that’s a big hill for this offense to climb, but that’s what they must do to win this series. Can this offense drive in runs with their top run producer in the lead-off spot? It worked on Tuesday against Sam Houston. But Sam Houston isn’t Mississippi State, and this isn’t a struggling mid-week starter. This is a whole new ball game. I’m not convinced moving Shewmake to the lead-off spot is the most prudent move, but hopefully I’ll be proven wrong with adequate run production coming from Zach Deloach, Mikey Hoehner, and Logan Foster in the middle of the batting order.
What's at stake this weekend
This is a huge series. A&M looked to be in good shape for a regional host spot until last weekend’s disappointing sweep suffered at the hands of the Ole Miss Rebels. With dangerous No. 6 MSU coming to Olsen, one of two results will happen: The Aggies wither at the hands of the Bulldog power pitching and power hitting and lose this home series, sending A&M into a tailspin hoping to hold-on to a postseason regional berth, or they rise up and find a way to win an RPI-rich series against No. 6 MSU and get back on-track with a regional host spot. If Texas A&M can win this series, they’ll have a chance to go 4-2/5-1 in these next two series after a three-game set against last-place Alabama next week. That would get the momentum back heading into the final series with Arkansas and then SEC Tournament. There’s a distinct possibility that this weekend is the turning point of the season. Win and every goal for this team is still well within reach, including a regional host spot. Lose the series and we’re looking at a tailspin going into the final two weeks of the regular season with an NCAA berth now on the line.