Series Preview: No. 10 Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Who: University of Missouri (17-9, 2-4 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – College Station, TX
When:
- Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Saturday 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Sunday 1:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Pitching matchups
Friday: John Doxakis (LHP, 3-2, 2.31) vs. Jacob Cantleberry (LHP, 3-1, 2.65)
Saturday: Asa Lacy (LHP, 5-0, 1.80) vs. TJ Sikkema (LHP, 2-2, 1.30)
Sunday: TBA vs. Tyler LaPlante (LHP, 1-1, 3.19)
Scouting Missouri
Missouri is a hard team to figure out. In one light, the numbers don’t look impressive. In another light, the numbers reflect a team that is capable, but has fallen short in the win column. If I told you the Tigers were 2-4 in SEC play, would you believe they had an ERA of 1.93 in conference and have walked only 14 batters? For context, the Aggies are 5-1 with a team ERA in the SEC of 3.67 and 22 walks. Granted, it’s still a limited sample size at this point. So Missouri’s hitting must be its Achilles heel, right? Well, they have one of the most dangerous hitters in the SEC in junior Kameron Misner, and Chris Cornelius is pounding the ball with a .363 average with 28 RBI. Missouri has hit a total of 25 home runs compared to the Aggies’ 18. So overall, the bats haven’t been that bad either. That’s why this series is so dangerous for the Aggies. If you look at the standings, records, and rankings, Texas A&M should win this series – especially at home. And if the Aggies play well this weekend, the odds of winning the series are pretty good. But just a few bobbles of ball or one off-night by a trusted pitcher, and the possiblility of Missouri walking out of here on Sunday with a series victory is real.
At the plate, the offense revolves around junior preseason All-SEC hitter Kameron Misner. The freshman 2017 All-American and 2018 preseason All-SEC player battled with injuries last season that hindered his production, but his health has been good in 2019. He jumped out to a good start in non-conference, but he has hit a severe slump in SEC play, going just 1-for-21 in the first six games. And that number right there solves the mystery. Missouri has struggled scoring runs in their six conference games, plating only 15 runs in those contests including a three-game sweep at nationally ranked Arkansas by scores of 2-0, 4-3, 3-2. Add just a few more hits from Misner and those results could have been much different. Missouri’s plight in SEC play is very similar to what Texas A&M’s offense was experiencing in non-conference when Braden Shewmake was hitting in the .230s. It’s hard to consistently generate runs when your best hitter in the middle of the order is struggling. It also shows that Missouri is very close to being a top-flight SEC team. Just look at last weekend, where the 0-3 Tigers won the weekend series against No. 20 Ole Miss.
Despite his recent slump, Misner is still putting up good numbers, hitting .286 with six home runs and 18 RBI. He has also walked a whopping 29 times (Hoehner leads A&M with 17 BBs), so opposing pitchers aren’t willing to challenge him very often. But if an opposing coach is willing to put him on base, then he has to deal with Misner’s speed on the basepaths, and he is a perfect 12-for-12 in stolen bases. The other dangerous hitter for Missouri is Chris Cornelius, who is hitting .361 with five long balls and a team-leading 28 RBI. Mark Vierling is the only other full-time starter hitting above .300 (.338). With all that said, the numbers dramatically drop in SEC play. As a team, Missouri is hitting just .188 in SEC play with an anemic slugging percentage of .269.
On the other hand, Missouri’s pitching numbers are stellar both in and out of conference play, led by the formidable veteran starting pitching. With all the talk of Texas A&M’s unique three lefty starting pitching staff before Jonathan Childress’ injury, the Tigers will bring an all lefthanded starting pitching staff to Olsen Field this weekend, and it’s a quality rotation. Junior Jacob Cantleberry is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA, while Saturday starter TJ Sikkema has Asa Lacy-like numbers with a 2-2 record and a sparkling 1.30 ERA. Missouri will trot out experienced senior Tyler LaPlante with a 1-1 record and a 3.19 ERA. That’s a salty starting rotation. The bullpen is pretty good as well, led by closer Cameron Dulle with three saves and a 0.66 ERA in 13.2 inninhgs of work. Jordan Gubelman (1.12 ERA) and Ian Bedell (1.72 ERA) have absorbed a combined 31.2 innings of action in the bullpen for the Tigers. So this weekend will be significant challenge for the Aggie offense.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
After scouting Missouri, the important storylines for Texas A&M are clear. On the mound, the Aggies must minimize Misner’s impact throughout the series. History is pretty clear – shutdown Misner and you shutdown a good portion of Missouri’s run production. It will be interesting to see on Friday and Saturday if A&M’s elite starting pitchers try to challenge and beat Misner, or steer clear of run production and deal with his speed on the basepaths and force other Missouri hitters to beat them.
The other storyline is John Doxakis and seeing if he can get back on track after two so-so starts. It’s not that Doxakis has been hit hard and knocked out of games early, but he hasn’t been dominant like he was early in the season. He’s been falling behind hitters and working hard to escape trouble. Aggie fans will feel much better if and when dominant Doxakis returns to the mound and gives the team a quality Friday night outing. The team will need it against Cantleberry.
The other storyline to watch this weekend is the battle between Missouri’s all left-handed starting pitching and lefty Braden Shewmake. The junior shortstop has raised his average over 100 points over the past couple of weeks, and that has corresponded with Texas A&M’s reinvigorated offensive output and current seven-game win streak. It’s tough for any left-handed hitter to face a pitcher coming from the same side, and Shewmake will have to grind all three days against the three starting lefties scheduled to take the hill for Missouri. Shewmake can’t press and get aggressive, or we’ll see a lot of goundouts to the right side. He’s a much better hitter when he’s patient and using all fields, and that will be something to keep an eye on this weekend.
Who does Coach Childress turn to take the ball and start on Sunday? Christian Roa didn’t look himself in last Sunday’s start, and you have to wonder if something physically was bothering him. Regardless, the staff did not name a starting pitcher for Sunday and will likely play it by ear. Keep an eye on Joseph Menefee to see whether he comes out of the bullpen early in the weekend or he’s given the start on Sunday. That may depend on how much the bullpen is needed on Friday and Saturday.
FInally, this series looks like a low scoring affair, and that means the defense must play mistake-free. That hasn’t been the case over the past week. Ty Coleman made a couple of miscues on Tuesday, and the pitchers have made some fielding mistakes recently as well. The errors didn’t get much attention because the offense was hanging up big numbers, but one misplayed ball this weekend could be the difference in a series win and a disappointing series loss.
What's at stake this weekend
Last week’s road sweep at Kentucky has potentially changed the narrative for the Aggies in this early SEC race. At 5-1 with a 2-4 Missouri team coming to Olsen Field, Texas A&M wants to keep the momentum going and win another series. The Aggies could realistically finish the weekend in first place at 8-1, and a national seed and conference championship is clearly on the table going forward. A home series loss to one of only four unranked teams in the SEC will not only halt the current positive momentum, but the Aggies will be 6-3 with a brutal stretch of games at Texas, at LSU, and home to Auburn – all nationally-ranked competition. So ideally, the Aggies need to take advantage of playing an unranked SEC team at home so a few potential losses over the next two weeks can be easily aborbed without much damage to the résumé. But bottom line, fans expect the Aggies to protect their home field and win weekend series inside Blue Bell Park. To reach its goal of hosting a regional or super-regional, Texas A&M needs to take care of business at home against Missouri... Period.