Regional Preview: Impact players, paths to victory in Austin
The Texas A&M baseball team begins the journey to Omaha looking for the school's first back-to-back trip to college baseball's ultimate destination. The road to the College World Series goes through Austin and the Texas Longhorns. Though the Aggies have played at Disch-Falk Field many times over the years, this will be the first time the baseball program has played an NCAA regional game in the state's capitol.
The Texas Longhorns will serve as the host this weekend to Big Ten representative Indiana, Texas Southern and Texas A&M from the SEC. Play will begin Friday afternoon at 4:00 with the No. 2 seed Hoosiers taking on the third-seeded Aggies, while the top-seeded Longhorns square-off against the No. 4 seed Tigers in the 8:00 p.m. nightcap. If the Aggies and Longhorns win on Friday, it will be a winner's bracket rivalry royale on Saturday night in front of a raucous, sold-out Disch-Falk Field crowd. But, first things first. Texas A&M has a big fight on its hands against the Hoosiers to open up the Austin Regional.
Here's a breakdown of all four teams in this weekend's regional:
No. 1 Seed: Texas Longhorns
- RPI: 22
- Record: 37-20 (17-9 Big 12)
- Team average: .272
- Team ERA: 4.36
- Fielding %: .977
- Offense: 5.96 runs/gm
- Defense: 4.79 runs/gm
Season record vs. RPI teams
- vs. 1-50: 12-12
- vs. 51-100: 11-4
- vs. 101-200: 6-3
- vs. 200+: 8-1
Top pitchers
- Nolan Kingham (7-3 record, 3.88 ERA)
- Blair Henley (5-6 record, 3.54 ERA)
- Andy McGuire (7 saves, 2.12 ERA)
Top hitters
- Kody Clemens (.341 BA, 19 HR, 61 RBI)
- David Hamilton (.307 BA, .428 OBP, 28 stolen bases)
- Zach Zubia (.288 BA, 10 HR, 41 RBI)
Keys to winning the regional
The Longhorns should feel pretty good about this weekend. The home park at Disch-Falk Field is sold out, so there will be a significant home-field advantage throughout the regional. As the No. 1 seed, they get a manageable match-up with 4-seed Texas Southern on Friday night, out of the daytime heat. In fact, stay in the winner's bracket, and the Longhorns get three night games at home to win the regional title against an opponent that has to play at least three games in the daytime heat fighting through the loser's bracket. So the dynamics of the regional, including first round competition and heat, play very much into the Longhorns' favor, and they earned it with a Big 12 Conference Championship.
However, there are a few things going against Texas in this regional. First, the team played horribly in Bricktown, losing to Kansas and Oklahoma and exiting stage left immediately. The team has had a week to think about that effort. Second, a bug has traveled through the Longhorn team, affecting a handful of players including Friday night starter Nolan Kingham. In fact, his start has been moved back to Saturday. Part of that strategy is the 4-seed competition on Friday. Part of that is giving him one more day of rest to regain his strength. But that leaves Texas going with Chase Shugarts and his 4-3 record and 4.76 ERA in the opening game against Texas Southern. Yeah, it's TSU from the SWAC. They shouldn't be able to compete and win against an No. 1 seed, right? Probably not. However, Shugarts has given up a lot of hits and a team-leading 35 walks. That's not a typical opening night pitcher for a No. 1 seed in a regional.
Texas is still the home team and the team to beat. The Longhorns don't need dominant pitching outings like other teams in the bracket. They need solid outings. They need pitchers that can keep them in games, allowing the potent and dangerous top of the batting lineup to do damage to opposing pitchers. There is nobody more dangerous at the plate in this regional than second baseman Kody Clemens. Batting in the three-hole, Clemens is hitting .341 with 19 home runs and 61 RBI with a slugging percentage of .687. With three quarters of his at-bats coming at the pitching-friendly Disch-Falk Field, that's an amazing stat line. Simply put, he's the best hitter in this regional.
Speedster David Hamilton leads off the batting order for the Longhorns with a .307 batting average, .420 on-base percentage and 28 stolen bases. Add in clean-up hitter Zach Zubia with 10 home runs and 41 RBI, and the top of the lineup is where most of the run production will originate. To win this regional, the top of the batting order must produce. Shut down the top of the lineup, and an opposing pitcher likely shuts down the Longhorn offense.
For Texas, they key is to leverage the advantages of being the No. 1 seed and remain in the winner's bracket. That means taking care of business against Texas Southern and then riding the arm of Nolan Kingham in the critical Saturday night winner's bracket game. The Longhorns don't have the pitching depth to survive the long road through the loser's bracket. It's pretty simple for the regional host. Stay in the winner's bracket. Period.
Chance to win Austin Regional: 35 percent
No. 2 Seed: Indiana Hoosiers
- RPI: 29
- Record: 38-17 (14-9 Big 10)
- Team average: .284
- Team ERA: 2.91
- Fielding %: .976
- Offense: 6.18 runs/gm
- Defense: 3.58 runs/gm
Season record vs. RPI teams
- vs. 1-50: 8-12
- vs. 51-100: 4-2
- vs. 101-200: 13-2
- vs. 200+: 13-1
Top pitchers
- Jonathan Stiever (5-5, 2.89 ERA)
- Pauly Milto ( 7-2, 2.29 ERA)
- Matt Lloyd (6 saves, 1.23 ERA)
Top hitters
- Matt Gorski (.363 BA, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 19 SB)
- Scotty Bradley (.323 BA, .444 OBP)
- Logan Sowers (.309 BA, 10 HR, 32 RBI)
Keys to winning the regional
On paper, the Hoosiers look like the team to beat. They are tied with Texas A&M for the highest team batting average in the Austin Regional with a .284 mark, they hit the most home runs of any team (60), and they have the best team ERA in the field at a very impressive 2.91. Even the team fielding percentage of .976 is just .001 short of the Longhorns' .977 that leads the regional field. And the level of competition in the Big Ten in 2018 was pretty solid – not up to SEC standards, but not far behind other power baseball conferences like the Big 12 and Pac-10. But it seems in all of the hype about a potential Texas A&M-Texas match-up, not many folks in the Lone Star State are talking much about a "north" team in a historically weak conference coming in as the No. 2 seed with impressive season statistics across the board. Well, they should. Indiana is arguably the most well-rounded squad in the Austin Regional.
The key for the Hoosiers is getting a quality start from the anchor of their starting rotation, Jonathan Stiever. That sounds pretty obvious with any collegiate team this weekend, right? But it means something when discussing Stiever. He hasn't won a start since April 20 when he shut out Ohio State, 4-0. Since the end of April, the junior power pitcher is 0-4. Now, he had a couple of hard-luck losses to nationally-ranked regional host Minnesota (4-1) and a heartbreaking Fiday night loss to Illinois (3-2). His overall ERA during this 0-4 stretch is 3.87. Not bad, but not sub-3.00 either. During these last five starts, Stiever has had mild control problems, walking four batters in three starts and averaging three free passes in this losing streak.
The key for Stiever is to minimize the walks and not over-throw his 95 mph fastball. He's actually pitches better throwing under more control in the low 90's. If Stiever keeps his nerves and adrenaline under wraps against the Texas A&M hitters, it could be a long day for the Aggies. If he labors to find the strike zone early, he could wilt under the Texas heat and could be destined for a short outing. He has not managed to complete the sixth inning in any of his five previous starts during this losing stretch. The Hoosiers have a deep and solid bullpen, but none of the relievers have the velocity and pitchability of Stiever.
If Stiever and the bullpen hold up and the Hoosiers move into the Saturday winner's bracket game, they have a quality No. 2 starter, Pauly Milto (7-2, 2.29), to toe the rubber. Bottom line? Win the first game against Texas A&M and stay in the winner's bracket, and the Hoosiers have the arms to win it all. In fact, I think the Hoosiers become the clear-cut favorite to win the regional if they advance on Friday. Texas A&M and Texas don't possess the elite pitching depth needed to win a regional playing out of the loser's bracket, and Milto's 2.29 ERA compares favorably to the Longhorn's projected starter, Nolan Kingham, with a 3.88 ERA.
It is assumed that the Hoosiers, with a season fielding percentage of .976, won't have any problems with the all-turf field at Disch-Falk, and with an offense as good as any in this field, it will come down to starting pitching and how far Coach Lemonis can ride these arms in the near 100-degree heat expected this weekend. Get two quality starts from Stiever and Milto, and the Hoosiers have a great chance to advance to the Super Regional. If Stiever can't find his control early and labors in the heat on Friday, I don't see Indiana (or any team playing in the loser's bracket for three straight days in the heat) surviving in the end. That's why this Indiana-Texas A&M game on Friday is so important.
Chance to win Austin Regional: 25 percent
No. 3 Seed: Texas Aggies
- RPI: 15
- Record: 39-20 (16-18 SEC)
- Team average: .284
- Team ERA: 3.23
- Fielding %: .973
- Offense: 5.90 runs/gm
- Defense: 4.02 runs/gm
Season record vs. RPI teams
- vs. 1-50: 14-16
- vs. 51-100: 7-3
- vs. 101-200: 10-0
- vs. 200+: 8-1
Top pitchers
- Mitchell Kilkenny (8-4, 3.00 ERA)
- John Doxakis (7-5, 2.89 ERA)
- Nolan Hoffman (1.24 ERA, 14 saves)
Top hitters
- Michael Helman (.366 BA, .511 Slg, .453 OBP)
- Braden Shewmake (.329 BA, 44 RBI, 12 SB)
- Logan Foster (.304 BA, 8 HR, .511 Slg)
Keys to winning the regional
Game one against the Hoosiers is critical for the Aggies. National pundits have consistently touted Texas A&M's pitching depth, but over the course of the season that just hasn't been the case. With Kaylor Chafin, Cason Sherrod and freshmen Asa Lacy and Chandler Jozwiak struggling for consistency much of the season, Coach Childress had been forced to ride his starting pitching as long as possible and pray they can get the team into the late innings and bring in Nolan Hoffman. That's one reason why the Aggies finished the SEC regular season at 13-17. But a funny thing happened at the SEC Tournament in Hoover.
When forced to start Chafin and Lacy in the first two games of the event, Childress found the lefties were dialed-in. They delivered in a big way. Cason Sherrod also had one of his best outings of the year. The result was a 3-1 record that upon further reflection is why Texas A&M is even in the field of 64. Last weekend was pretty amazing. In four games in Hoover (three against nationally-ranked opponents), Aggie pitching allowed just five runs total. If Texas A&M's pitchers can replicate that performance this weekend, the odds of winning the Austin Regional are pretty high to say the least. But, it happened once. It may or may not happen again. I don't think Childress wants to be put in a situation early in the regional to see if these guys can deliver two weeks in a row.
Going against a sub-3.00 power righty in Stiever, John Doxakis needs a quality start. He is pitching at his best late in the season. His last outing against Auburn was a gem, allowing just two hits and one run in 7.1 innings. He has slowly become the team ace, which is why Childress is giving him the ball in this important game one with Indiana. If Doxakis delivers and the Aggies advance to the winner's bracket game on Saturday, that likely sets up the titanic battle against the Longhorns and Nolan Kingham. If Kingham is healthy, the Kilkenny vs. Kingham match-up will be a war. However, the statisics show that Kilkenny has the advantage.
Even if Texas A&M stays in the winner's bracket, the path to a regional victory still has question marks on the mound. Nolan Hoffman won't be capable of closing out all three games. Somebody else has to step up and deliver in the late innings. Ideally, Aggie fans would love to see Sherrod take that role, leaving Chafin and Lacy available for a Sunday start or long relief late in the regional. The other question mark is Stephen Kolek, who struggled late in the year and didn't pitch in Hoover. Is he the game three starter to win it all in the winner's bracket, or does Childress go with the hot hand(s)? If the Aggies fall into the loser's bracket, Kolek will get the ball at some point on Sunday, as will Chafin and Lacy. The easiest path appears to be staying in the winner's bracket with wins on Friday and Saturday with Doxakis and Kilkenny, and then giving the ball to Chafin, who will match up well against the primarily left-handed Texas lineup if the Longhorns make it out of the loser's bracket against Indiana.
It will also be critical for the top of the Aggie lineup to produce runs. Zach DeLoach must be the most hard-luck hitter in recent history as he's been getting good quality at-bats over the past three weeks but few hits to show for it. If the line drives fall for him this weekend and Michael Helman and Braden Shewmake can be productive in the No. 2 and No. 3 hole, the offense should be able to generate adequate run production for a pitching staff that is peaking at the right time.
Shewmake is the most important hitter to the Aggies' success. He's been solid all season, but he hasn't lived up to his ability to carry an offense. During the middle of the season, Shewmake seemed too aggressive at the plate and swung at pitches out of the zone. His aggressiveness also led to him becoming a pull hitter, and he pounded many ground balls right to the second baseman and first baseman for easy outs. He generated his fair share of hits, but he hasn't delivered the big blow this season as expected. Of his 76 hits, only 16 have been of the extra-base hit variety. It's amazing that the all-American shortstop has had only seven doubles this season, which is sixth on the team. For the Aggies to produce enough runs to win in Austin, Shewmake needs to relax, be less aggressive, take the ball where it's pitched and spray it to all fields. That's when he's at his most dangerous, and a dangerous Shewmake is bad news for the regional field.
Another critical factor to success this weekend is getting production from Chris Andritsos out of the clean-up spot. Texas A&M doesn't need Andritsos to catch fire or carry this offense, but the Aggies will need him to drive in a couple of runs and get a big hit along the way. Lack of production from what should be the most productive spot in the lineup has really hampered the offense in 2018. If Andritsos can deliver an RBI-double or crank a big fly along the way, this team will be in good shape.
Finally, Texas A&M will be playing good defensive teams on a very clean surface. So the Aggies will have to earn every run this weekend. By the same token, the Aggie defense must be clean as well. Their .973 fielding percentage isn't bad, but it isn't particularly good either. It's in the acceptable range, and it falls below both Indiana (.976) and Texas (.977). Defense has wavered at times this season, but in Hoover the defense was rock solid for the most part. It needs to stay that way to keep up with the other stellar defenses in this regional.
Texas A&M is certainly good enough to win this tournament despite the No. 3 seed. In fact, a good case can be made that if the Aggies perform like they did in Hoover last week, they may be a slight favorite to win it all in Austin. But that's a big "if."
The Aggies need the team leaders on the mound (Doxakis, Kilkenny, Chafin, Hoffman) and at the plate (Helman, Shewmake, Andritsos) to deliver this weekend and lead by example.
If that happens, there's a good chance Texas A&M will advance to a Super Regional as a No. 3 seed two years in a row.
Chance to win Austin Regional: 35 percent
No. 4 Seed: Texas Southern Tigers
- RPI: No. 215
- Record: 27-26 (17-6 SWAC)
- Team average: .307
- Team ERA: 5.23
- Fielding %: .966
- Offense: 6.98 runs/gm
- Defense: 5.64 runs/gm
Season record vs. RPI teams
- vs. 1-50: 0-8
- vs. 51-100: 0-4
- vs. 101-200: 1-1
- vs. 200+: 24-13
Top pitchers
- Aron Solis (10-3, 3.44 ERA)
- Chris Saurez ( 2.75 ERA, 5 saves)
Top hitters
- Kamron Dukes (.396 BA, 65 runs, 30 SB)
- Lucca Gaudencio (.385 BA, 50 RBI, .496 OBP, 25 SB)
- Christian Sanchez (.343 BA, 17 HR, 60 RBI)
Keys to winning the regional
Let's be honest. The odds of Texas Southern advancing to the Super Regionals are not good. The SWAC automatic qualifier is usually the sacrificial lamb in one of these regionals. Yeah, there's the infamous "Herman Coachman" opening win over national seed and regional host Rice in 2004 that opened the door for Texas A&M to win that regional, but the 4-seed is usually dispatched early in the tournament.
The Tigers do have some intriguing offensive numbers. Just look at the gaudy offensive numbers of their top three hitters: Kamron Dukes, Luca Gaudencio and Christian Sanchez. There are a lot of RBI and stolen bases in those offensive numbers. The Friday night starter, Aron Solis, is 10-3 with a 3.44 ERA. The closer has a 2.75 ERA. Yes, the competition is a big factor, but those stats are intriguing at any level.
Despite those impressive statistics, the context of those numbers can't be ignored. The Tigers are 1-13 against top-200 teams and winless against top-100 teams. The other teams in the Austin Regional have RPI's in the top 30, so that doesn't bode well for the SWAC champs. However, a few fortuitous bounces of the ball and a loss of control by an opposing pitcher could result in a stunning upset along the way. And really, that's about as much as can be expected from Texas Southern this weekend. They will try to play the role of spoiler.
Chance to win Austin Regional: 5 percent
