Baseball Preview: Texas A&M vs. No. 25 Vanderbilt
Who: Vanderbilt Commodores (31-24, 16-14 SEC)
Where: SEC Tournament, Hoover Met. Stadium — Hoover, AL
When:
Tuesday 9:30 a.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchup
Kaylor Chafin (LHP, 4-0, 3.47) vs. Tyler Brown (RHP, 1-3, 6.07)
Scouting Vanderbilt
The Commodores have not performed at the level of a typical Tim Corbin team in 2018. Usually competing near the top of the SEC in recent years, Vanderbilt has been scrambling to make the NCAA Tournament just like the Aggies. The big difference has been the finish, where the Commodores closed strong at 5-1 in the SEC play to conclude the regular season at 31-24 and 16-14 in conference. On the other hand, the Aggies are limping into the SEC Tournament with a 1-5 finish. Two weeks ago, the Aggies looked like a lock for the NCAA's, and Vandy was on the outside looking in. Heading into tomorrow's breakfast time game, both teams are scrambling to make the big dance and both teams need this game. Ironically, because of the quick turnaround from last weekend's games to the start of the SEC Tournament, the fate of both squads could be in the hands of struggling pitchers tabbed to take the hill tomorrow.
You won't find a pitching match-up with so many contrasts. Vanderbilt will go with freshman righty Tyler Brown, who stands 6-foot-3 and weighs over 240 pounds. Texas A&M is countering with crafty senior lefty Kaylor Chafin, who stands about 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds. What is similar though is the season pitching stats, and both hurlers have struggled in 2018. Brown has been hit hard in his freshman campaign with a bloated 6.07 ERA and an innings pitched-to-hits ratio of 29/36. As we all know, Chafin has had his inconsistencies as well with a 3.47 ERA but an IP-to-hits ratio of 36/43. Looking at these numbers another way, opposing batters hit .289 against Brown and .301 against Chafin. The key to this game could be the starting pitcher that can hold the rope and survive for five innings. The numbers indicate this could be a high scoring game. Both bullpens have been thin and suspect all year. Vanderbilt's pitching staff as a whole has an ERA of 4.21 compared to Texas A&M's 3.39. Zach King is the anchor of the Commodore bullpen with an ERA of 3.09, three saves, and an IP-to-hits ratio of 43/35. Solid statistics, but not dominating.
At the plate, Vanderbilt is pretty average statistically with a team batting average of .264 compared to Texas A&M's .283. Run production is very similar to the Aggies (342 runs scored to 333 for A&M) while the Commodores have hit three more homers over the season (51-48). Austin Martin leads them in hitting at .323, followed by Philip Clarke at .302. No other Commodore starter is above the .300 mark. Pat Demarco (9) and Stephen Scott (12) have combined for 21 homers and 76 RBI. The duo serves as a formidable 1-2 power punch in the lineup. It should also be noted that Vanderbilt loves to be aggressive on the base paths and will put pressure on the A&M defense at every opportunity. They stole a league-leading 94 bases compared to just 41 for the Aggies. That's not a good match-up for A&M.
Offensively, this game could come down to free passes and defense, and that's where Vanderbilt has a distinct advantage. The Commodores are patient at the plate, drawing 261 walks this season compared to 215 base-on-balls for the Aggies. Vandy's defense is very reliable, fielding .983 as a team compared to .971 for Texas A&M. Shortstop Connor Kaiser has committed just one error in over 200 chances.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
The Aggies simply need to clean things up to succeed in this game. Texas A&M has a significantly better ERA and batting average, and the quick turnaround gives them a freshman pitcher with a fat ERA of 6.07. It will boil down to two things. Will we see the Chafin that struggles to hit his spots and falls behind in the count, or will we see the Chafin that has command of the plate and works ahead in the count? If the struggling Chafin shows up tomorrow morning, this game will be over quickly. Despite the freshman hurler with the 6.07 ERA, the Aggies can't come back from a crooked number in the early innings. If Chafin can't make it through five innings, that means A&M is relying on a bullpen of young lefties that are just as inconsistent as Chafin has been in 2018. The path to success is one where Chafin hangs in the game and remains competitive. He doesn't need to shut the door completely on Vanderbilt, and the odds of that happening are pretty low. But, he needs to stay in the fight for five-plus innings, stay competitive, and keep the Aggies in the game heading to the late innings. Do that and the No. 11 seed Aggies have a good chance to win tomorrow because Vanderbilt is a solid team, but not a great team by any stretch. Second, Texas A&M must play a clean game defensively. With Vanderbilt's speed and the caliber of pitching scheduled to throw tomorrow, neither team can afford to give the other extra outs, especially the Aggies because that has been a struggle all year. Bottom line, if Chafin can hang around and compete for at least five innings and the defense is solid behind him, A&M will be in a position to win.
What's at stake this weekend
For Texas A&M, the rest of the season is at stake. Lose tomorrow and all that is left is wishing and praying that there aren't many upsets in the smaller conferences so the Aggies can grab an at-large berth. Lose and the team's post-season fate rests with the NCAA Committee, and frankly, a 2-8 finish in SEC play doesn't look good on the resume'. Lose tomorrow and there's nobody to blame but yourself if this is the first season in 12 years that Texas A&M will be staying at home. Win tomorrow and you guarantee yourself another two games against high RPI teams. The odds of getting an NCAA berth are pretty high at that point. So, win and you likely go to an NCAA Regional where anything can happen as we saw last year, or lose and likely stay home for the first time in over a decade. Yeah, there's a lot at stake in this one, to say the least.
