Series Preview: Texas A&M at No. 7 Arkansas
Who: University of Arkansas (33-15, 14-10 SEC)
Where: Baum Stadium — Fayetteville, AR
When:
Friday 6:00 p.m. (SEC Network)
Saturday 1:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Sunday 12:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Pitching matchups
Friday: Mitchell Kilkenny (RHP, 8-2, 2.20) vs. Blaine Knight (RHP, 7-0, 2.77)
Saturday: John Doxakis (LHP, 6-3, 3.04) vs. Kacey Murphy (LHP, 5-4, 2.57)
Sunday: Stephen Kolek (RHP, 5-4, 3.78) vs. Isaiah Campbell (RHP, 3-5, 4.76)
Scouting Arkansas
The Razorbacks sit atop the SEC West division at 14-10, and if the NCAA Tournament started today, Dave Van Horn's bunch would be a national seed and playing all postseason games at Baum Stadium. Playing at home has been a huge advantage for Arkansas this season. Few teams come into Fayetteville and leave with a win. The Hogs are 26-3 overall and 11-1 in SEC play in front of Razorback fans, and this weekend's series finale should see raucous crowds near 10,000 all weekend. So this weekend's assignment to win the series is difficult to say the least.
Arkansas' success starts with the offense that ranks first in the SEC with a team batting average of .306 and a total of 74 home runs and 343 runs scored. In comparison, Texas A&M is hitting .288 as a team with 44 home runs and 310 runs scored. So power in the middle of the lineup is what sets the Razorbacks from other SEC teams. Last week, we discussed Florida's big three of India, Dalton, and Schwarz. Well, the Hogs boast a big four of Carson Shaddy (.365), Heston Kjerstad (.357), Casey Martin (.340), and Eric Cole (.335). These four have combined for 41 home runs (10.25 per player) and 146 RBI (36.5 RBI per player). When a lineup has that kind of production from four players, that wears mentally on an opposing pitcher.
Add in Dominic Fletcher (.304, 34 RBI) and Luke Bonfield (.296, 27 RBI), and there's no portion of the lineup where a pitcher can relax and challenge a lesser hitter. A lineup that is dangerous throughout the batting order wears down an opposing pitcher, and that's why Arkansas leads the SEC in many offensive caegories. There's no time for the opposition to relax and breathe. There's no question Arkansas' offense is the biggest challenge A&M pitching has faced all season, and that includes No. 1 Florida.
On the mound, Arkansas has a solid 1-2 punch on Friday and Satuday starting with staff ace Blaine Knight, who is a perfect 7-0 for the season with a 2.77 ERA. Knight was hit with a three-spot at LSU last weeeknd in the first inning, but a late comeback by the Razorbacks allowed him to avoid his first loss of the season. It must be noted that the Aggie offense is most productive in the opening frame, outscoring the opposition 55-10 this season, so jumping on Knight early may be the best path to a Friday win. Lefty Kacey Murphy sports a 5-4 record but acually has the lowest ERA of any weekend starter at 2.57. Pitching drops off significantly on Sunday. Isaiah Campbell has struggled most of the year with a losing record of 3-5 and a bloated ERA of 4.76.
Pitching depth is where Arkansas is soft after Knight and Martin, and that depth is even softer this weekend. Razorbacks' top closer Matt Cronin contracted mononucleosis a couple of weeks ago and has been sidelined the past three weekend series. According to Coach Van Horn, Cronin has been cleared to pitch on Sunday, but will miss Friday and Saturday. And you have to wonder that despite being available for Sunday work, will he be effective? It would be his first live action on the mound in three weeks. Cronin is the team's leader with nine saves and opposing batters are hitting just .131 against him this season. For a pitching staff that is thin to bein with, losing Cronin has been a huge challenge for the Hogs. Jake Reindl has moved into the closer role temporarily with five saves and an ERA of 2.95. His hits-to-innings pitched ratio is right at 1.00...solid but by no means dominant. The bullpen has a couple of arms in the "solid" category like Barrett Loseke with a 3.38 ERA, but not many arms that will come in and shut down an opposing offense with consistency.
The Razorbacks have a defensive fielding percentage of .973, which matches the Aggies' .973. Their defense faltered last weekend and gave LSU four unearned runs in a 6-4 loss last Saturday. So Arkansas has decent pitching and decent defense but a really good offense. It's safe to say that Arkansas usually wins with offense.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
I'm going to work backwards to look at the most important storyline for the weekend. I actually see Stephen Kolek and his performance on Sunday is the biggest key to winning this series against Arkansas. Given Arkansas' two capable weekend starters and that potent offense, the Aggies will need to play nearly perfect baseball to win the Friday or Saturday contests. However, the numbers significantly favor Texas A&M in game three. Arkansas' Sunday starter (Campbell) has been struggling with an ERA near 5.00 compared to Kolek's 3.78.
If you look at SEC play, the Aggies hold a 6-2 record on Sundays, including last weekend's win over No. 1 Florida. So, if A&M is going to win this series, Kolek and the team have to take care of Sunday, and then scratch and claw for a win on Friday or Saturday. Bottom line, the goal for this weekend is to find a way to win one of these first two games, and then utilize their advantage on paper Sunday and take care of business. That should be the mindset going forward.
Coach Childress has been tweaking the batting order in recent weeks, partly out of necessity with the injury to Logan Foster, but also trying to find a spark in the lower half of the order. After seeing the extra range and a couple of spectacular catches in right field by Chandler Morris, I think he needs to move into that spot permanently to get the benefit of his speed and defense. Coach Childress has been experiementing with a lefty-righty platoon situation most of the season with Will Frizzell getting spot starts in right field against right-handed pitching. But at .280 with five home runs, I don't think his offensive pop outweighs the range and defense of Morris.
But this weekend boils down to starting pitching and the big bats in the A&M lineup. Mitchell Kilkenny, John Doxakis, and Kolek have a huge challenge to limit the best offense in the SEC. And while Arkansas' pitching depth is questionable, the odds of this Texas A&M offense outscoring the Hogs seems pretty low, especially on Friday and Saturday. Thus, the starters must be sharp and limit a very good offense to pull off the upset in games one and two. At the plate, A&M desperately needs Michael Helman to get hot again. His average has slipped about 25 points in the past couple of weeks. Helman must get on base for the Aggies to score enough to win. The bottom half of the Texas A&M batting order is still a big team weakness, so the top of the lineup must carry most of the offensive production, and it starts with Helman.
What's at stake this weekend
The Aggies are 12-12 in SEC play with six conference games remaining. Currently sitting at a Top 15 RPI, success or failure in these final six games can be the difference from missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over a decade or hosting an NCAA Regional at Olsen Field. That's a huge swing and indicates just how much is on the line this weekend at Arkansas. The Razorbacks come in at a No. 5 RPI and are slated to be a national seed at the moment. A road series win against a Top 5 team will certainly improve the Aggies' RPI, but the perception of Texas A&M's resume' to national pundits and the NCAA Committee will be significantly impacted in a positive manner. This would be Texas A&M's biggest marquee series win of the season and would put the Aggies squarely in position to nab a regional host spot.
And while we are getting way ahead of ourselves, if Texas A&M were to follow-up a road series win over Arkansas with a sweep of a surging Top 50 South Carolina, then all of a sudden this team will be going to Hoover, Alabama with a national seed within reach. But, losing this weekend's series coupled with losing the South Carolina series puts the Aggies two games below .500 going into the SEC Tournament on the NCAA bubble. Winning two games this weekend takes that worst case scenario off the table. So at this point, it is valid to say that the season is definitely on the line this weekend. It's big.
