Power Play: Freshman quarterbacks could raise Texas A&M's 2017 ceiling

Maybe experience is overrated.

According to the proverb, youth must be served. And according to recent college football results, a youthful quarterback can serve up a lot of victories.

So, even if Texas A&M starts a quarterback that hasn’t yet taken a collegiate snap, the Aggies can manufacture some wins. They figure to win when they play Nicholls State. They figure to win when they play Louisiana-Lafayette. They figure to win when they play New Mexico.

Indeed, they figure to win if they just play the percentages.

Of course, the Aggies' three-player competition in the quarterback race includes redshirt freshman Nick Starkel, true freshman Kellen Mond and senior Jake Hubenak.

That means the Aggies have a 66.7 percent chance of starting a freshman quarterback when they open the season against UCLA on Sept. 3. By doing so, their chances of posting at least 10 victories would appear to increase by 50 percent.

That last sentence surely caused eyes to roll, brows to furl and deep sighs to be exhaled. The more learned readers might even quote Mark Twain’s assessment that there are “lies, damn lies and statistics.”

But last year’s statistics show Power Five football programs with a freshman quarterback leading the way were twice as likely to post at least 10 victories than those with a senior quarterback at the helm.

That ain’t no lie.

It may not be a coincidence, either.

There was a time when playing a freshman quarterback typically equated to suffering through a subpar season. That’s obviously no longer the case. There are several reasons for that, according to ESPN College Football Analyst Kirk Herbstreit, a former Ohio State quarterback.

“The game has changed so much for a couple of different reasons, which is why we’re seeing (freshman excelling) more now than back in the ‘80s and '90s or 15 years ago,” Herbstreit said while on a conference call on Wednesday. “The way quarterbacks train now when they’re in middle school and high school is at a very, very different level.

“They train with personal quarterback coaches, so by the time they leave as a high school senior they’re so much more polished and educated in the passing game and ready to read coverages. It’s leaps and bounds from where it used to be.”

That was very evident last season.

Fifteen teams from the Power Five conferences posted at least 10 victories — a total that’s typically seen as the dividing line between a good and excellent season. Four of those 15 teams were led by freshman quarterbacks for all or most of the season.

Alabama was 14-1 with freshman Jalen Hurts running the offense. Florida State was 10-3 behind DeOndre Francois, USC was 10-3 with Sam Darnold as the starter. Wisconsin finished 11-3 with Alex Hornibrook starting nine games. The Badgers were 7-2 in games he started.

Yet, only two teams that reached 10 victories were led by seniors. Colorado was 10-4 with senior Sefo Liufau at quarterback, and West Virginia was 10-3 behind senior Skylar Howard.

There were actually nine freshmen Power Five conference quarterbacks who started most of the games for their teams.

Six of those teams posted at least six wins. Georgia was 8-5 with Jacob Easton making 12 starts, and South Carolina finished 6-7 with Jake Bentley starting the last seven games. The Gamecocks were 4-3 in those games.

So, 66.7 percent of the Power Five teams that started freshman quarterbacks in the majority of games at least reached a bowl game.

Those that did not included 5-7 Texas (Shane Buechele), 4-8 Duke (Daniel Jones) and 4-8 Oregon (Justin Herbert). Baylor actually started a freshman in a bowl game against Boise State, but Zach Smith only started the final four games for the Bears.

Texas A&M also has had its share of success with freshmen quarterbacks — and not just in recent years.

Of course, Johnny Manziel was a redshirt freshman when he led the Aggies to an 11-2 finish in 2012. Also, Corey Pullig was thrust into the lineup as a true freshman in 1992 when the Aggies finished 12-1.

Freshman Bucky Richardson led the Aggies to a bowl victory in 1987. Freshman Reggie McNeal came off the bench to lead the Aggies to an upset victory over No. 1 Oklahoma in 2002.

Maybe the Aggies will have another surprisingly successful campaign this year.

But if they don’t, the percentages suggest it won’t necessarily be due to having a freshman quarterback.