Photo by Bridgett Ledak, TexAgs
Texas A&M Baseball
Series Preview: No. 19 Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Who: University of Mississippi (29-20, 11-13 SEC)
Where: Swayze Field — Oxford, Mississippi
When: Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Saturday 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Sunday 12:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchups
Scouting Mississippi
Ole Miss shot up the national rankings after sweeping No. 6 East Carolina and No. 23 UNC-Wilmington in the first two weekends of the 2017 season back in February. However, an 0-3 performance at the Shriner's Classic at Minute Maid Park and a 1-5 stretch in March against Kentucky and Mississippi State quelled expectations for the Rebels.
At 29-20 and 11-13 in SEC play, Ole Miss is looking for some wins against Texas A&M and Auburn in the final two weeks of the regular season to solidify its standing to get into the NCAA regional field. A series win against the No. 19 Aggies would go a long way toward punching the Rebels' ticket to the tournament.
Both are pitching-heavy and struggle to score runs at times. In fact, this weekend's match-up features the SEC's No. 1 pitching staff (Texas A&M, 3.03 ERA) versus the No. 2 pitching staff (Ole Miss, 3.35 ERA).
The Rebels will open the series with right-handed sophomore James McArthur. Don't let his 3.99 ERA deceive you. He's given up almost half of his earned runs this season in two games. Those came against LSU and last week versus Florida where he was cruising through a quiet first three innings but gave up seven runs in the fourth frame – all with two outs. He entered last week's disastrous start as the reigning SEC Pitcher of the Week with an ERA well below 3.00.
Granted, his won-loss record (3-5) and season ERA (3.99) look very pedestrian for a Friday night SEC starter, but his innings-pitched-to-hits ratio (56 IP, 36 hits) is one of the best in the SEC for a starting pitcher. The Aggie offense is hoping there are some lingering effects from the fourth inning shellacking he took at the hands of the Gators during his last outing.
Freshman lefty Ryan Rolison moved into the starting rotation mid-season, and he's been very good for the Rebels with a 6-2 mark and a stingy 2.15 ERA. Rolison will be a big challenge for an Aggie offense that has so many key hitters swinging from the left side.
Ole Miss will come back with another southpaw on Sunday. David Parkinson sports a solid 5-3 record with a 3.66 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .259 against him, and he's surrendered an eye-popping 10 home runs so far in 2017. The most home runs allowed by an Aggie pitcher is four, so the long ball could play a big role in Sunday's finale.
While Texas A&M may have a slight advantage in the starting matchups on paper, the strongest component to this Ole Miss team is the bullpen. The Aggies can't afford to enter the late innings trailing, because comebacks will be very difficult to come by this weekend.
At the plate, though, Ole Miss has struggled to score runs all season. To date, the Rebels have managed to score just 241 runs through 49 games compared to Texas A&M's 313 runs generated in 2017. Ole Miss hits a meager .253 as a team (A&M is at .279). Only three players are hitting above .300, and the highest batting average on the team is Nick Fortes' .315.
While overall offensive production is low, the Rebels are capable of hitting the ball out of the park. Aggie pitchers must be aware of Colby Bortles, who passed up a chance to play pro ball to return to Oxford for his senior season. The big, power-hitting third baseman has launched nine big flies this season and can leave the yard at any time. Tate Blackman has left the yard eight times in 2017, and he'll be a dangerous hitter to face this weekend. But overall, this offense is one of the weakest the Aggies will face in the SEC this season. That's a good thing because Texas A&M's offense will face its toughest test on the mound this weekend.
On paper, this series sets up as a pitcher's duel. The top two pitching staffs by the numbers are set to have a low-scoring battle this weekend. The dominant storyline for the first two-thirds of this season was consistency in the starting rotation. All three starters had their ups and downs, struggling to find a steady performance. But the past couple of weeks, the starting pitching has been dirty throughout the weekend.
Against a very explosive Mississippi State offense last week, A&M's starters allowed just five earned runs in 19.1 innings of work. The pitching did its job. A lack of offensive punch and a leaky defense were the major contributors to the series loss. The Aggie offense managed to squeeze out a mere 10 hits and four runs in the last two games of the Mississippi State weekend, and State's pitching staff isn't nearly as deep or talented as the Ole Miss staff.
Lexie Hudson, TexAgs
Nick Choruby and the rest of the Aggie lineup will have to be on their toes to scratch out runs against a quality Ole Miss pitching staff.
The top of the lineup must be productive and scratch out runs. Nick Choruby has a tendency to run hot-and-cold at the plate, and the Aggies need him on base as a table-setter this weekend. Logan Foster is back to 100% healthy after playing with a nagging groin injury last weekend. It is critical for him to get some quality at-bats, put the ball in play, advance runners and maybe mix in a big hit in the two-hole.
Braden Shewmake's at-bats must count. Runners have to be on base when he's at the plate. He's Texas A&M's best and most reliable hitter. Coming to the plate with two outs and nobody on-base reduces his ability to change the game and put runs on the scoreboard.
Blake Kopetsky had a big weekend with a couple of home runs, and he's raised his average to .307 recently. Can his hot streak continue in Oxford? On the flip side, Cole Bedford struggled at the plate last Saturday, going 0-for-4 with three strike outs in the two-hole in the 5-1 loss, and he did not play in the 4-3 loss in the series finale. For this lineup to be productive, Bedford needs to be in the lineup and swinging a hot bat.
For the rest of the lineup, it's hard to expect big production this weekend because Ole Miss will be salty on the mound. However, the lower half of the order needs to have good, extended at-bats, put some stress on the pitchers and run up their pitch counts. Mix in an occasional big hit or a long ball, and that could be enough to win what should be some low-scoring affairs.
The other storyline to watch is who emerges from the bullpen as the closer. Mitchell Kilkenny was completely ineffective last weekend, and he's been scuffling for several outings now. Even in recent games when he eventually notched the save, he's allowed base runners and had to squeeze out of some big, late-inning jams.
Lefty Kaylor Chafin is not your typical closer that can come in and overpower hitters, but he's the most effective bullpen arm right now. It's not even close. He's become the primary set-up man over the past 5-6 weeks. Does Rob Childress decide to move him to the closer role or leave intact the back-end of the Texas A&M bullpen? That will be interesting to monitor this weekend.
Christina DeRuyter, TexAgs
Texas A&M head coach Rob Childress has the Aggies in position to make the NCAA Tournament field with ease.
The series loss to Mississippi State has cooled any talk of winning the SEC title, and the probability of hosting a regional has all but fallen to the wayside. The only scenario where Texas A&M hosts an NCAA regional includes sweeping the Rebels and Razorbacks in the final six SEC regular season games and ending up 20-10 in conference. That close would likely land the Aggies a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament, and it would be hard to imagine Texas A&M being snubbed under that scenario.
But let's be honest, that's an unlikely scenario. So barring a surprise road sweep in Oxford his weekend, the Aggies appear headed for the road as a No. 2 seed in the first round of the NCAA regionals.
On the flipside, the only scenario where Texas A&M could drop to a No. 3 seed or drop out of the NCAA's altogether would be a 1-5/0-6 finish. I don't see a split series one way or the other having much impact on Texas A&M's postseason positioning at this point. So the marching order for this weekend is to win a minimum of one game. The Aggies must avoid the sweep. And if everything falls into place and A&M can secure the weekend sweep, maybe we'll be talking about far more interesting scenarios this time next week before the regular season series finale with Arkansas.
Where: Swayze Field — Oxford, Mississippi
When: Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Saturday 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Sunday 12:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchups
- Thursday: Brigham Hill (RHP, 7-3, 2.62) vs. James McArthur (RHP, 3-4, 3.99)
- Friday: Corbin Martin (RHP, 5-2, 3.13) vs. Ryan Rolison (LHP, 6-2, 2.19)
- Saturday: Stephen Kolek (RHP, 3-2, 3.31) vs. David Parkinson (LHP, 5-3, 3.66)
Scouting Mississippi
Ole Miss shot up the national rankings after sweeping No. 6 East Carolina and No. 23 UNC-Wilmington in the first two weekends of the 2017 season back in February. However, an 0-3 performance at the Shriner's Classic at Minute Maid Park and a 1-5 stretch in March against Kentucky and Mississippi State quelled expectations for the Rebels.
At 29-20 and 11-13 in SEC play, Ole Miss is looking for some wins against Texas A&M and Auburn in the final two weeks of the regular season to solidify its standing to get into the NCAA regional field. A series win against the No. 19 Aggies would go a long way toward punching the Rebels' ticket to the tournament.
There are a lot of similarities between Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Both are pitching-heavy and struggle to score runs at times.
There are a lot of similarities between Ole Miss and Texas A&M.Both are pitching-heavy and struggle to score runs at times. In fact, this weekend's match-up features the SEC's No. 1 pitching staff (Texas A&M, 3.03 ERA) versus the No. 2 pitching staff (Ole Miss, 3.35 ERA).
The Rebels will open the series with right-handed sophomore James McArthur. Don't let his 3.99 ERA deceive you. He's given up almost half of his earned runs this season in two games. Those came against LSU and last week versus Florida where he was cruising through a quiet first three innings but gave up seven runs in the fourth frame – all with two outs. He entered last week's disastrous start as the reigning SEC Pitcher of the Week with an ERA well below 3.00.
Granted, his won-loss record (3-5) and season ERA (3.99) look very pedestrian for a Friday night SEC starter, but his innings-pitched-to-hits ratio (56 IP, 36 hits) is one of the best in the SEC for a starting pitcher. The Aggie offense is hoping there are some lingering effects from the fourth inning shellacking he took at the hands of the Gators during his last outing.
Freshman lefty Ryan Rolison moved into the starting rotation mid-season, and he's been very good for the Rebels with a 6-2 mark and a stingy 2.15 ERA. Rolison will be a big challenge for an Aggie offense that has so many key hitters swinging from the left side.
Ole Miss will come back with another southpaw on Sunday. David Parkinson sports a solid 5-3 record with a 3.66 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .259 against him, and he's surrendered an eye-popping 10 home runs so far in 2017. The most home runs allowed by an Aggie pitcher is four, so the long ball could play a big role in Sunday's finale.
While Texas A&M may have a slight advantage in the starting matchups on paper, the strongest component to this Ole Miss team is the bullpen. The Aggies can't afford to enter the late innings trailing, because comebacks will be very difficult to come by this weekend.
Dallas Woolfolk is the team's closer, and he's one of the SEC's best with 10 saves and an ERA of 1.91. Opponents are hitting just .181 against him.
Dallas Woolfolk is the team's closer, and he's one of the SEC's best with 10 saves and an ERA of 1.91. Opponents are hitting just .181 against him, and he's allowed only five walks in 33 innings. He forces hitters to earn a base. It doesn't stop there. Ole Miss has three other relievers in Houston Roth (0.83 ERA), Will Etheridge (2.52 ERA), and Will Stokes (2.84) with extensive work out of the bullpen.At the plate, though, Ole Miss has struggled to score runs all season. To date, the Rebels have managed to score just 241 runs through 49 games compared to Texas A&M's 313 runs generated in 2017. Ole Miss hits a meager .253 as a team (A&M is at .279). Only three players are hitting above .300, and the highest batting average on the team is Nick Fortes' .315.
While overall offensive production is low, the Rebels are capable of hitting the ball out of the park. Aggie pitchers must be aware of Colby Bortles, who passed up a chance to play pro ball to return to Oxford for his senior season. The big, power-hitting third baseman has launched nine big flies this season and can leave the yard at any time. Tate Blackman has left the yard eight times in 2017, and he'll be a dangerous hitter to face this weekend. But overall, this offense is one of the weakest the Aggies will face in the SEC this season. That's a good thing because Texas A&M's offense will face its toughest test on the mound this weekend.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
On paper, this series sets up as a pitcher's duel. The top two pitching staffs by the numbers are set to have a low-scoring battle this weekend. The dominant storyline for the first two-thirds of this season was consistency in the starting rotation. All three starters had their ups and downs, struggling to find a steady performance. But the past couple of weeks, the starting pitching has been dirty throughout the weekend.
Against a very explosive Mississippi State offense last week, A&M's starters allowed just five earned runs in 19.1 innings of work. The pitching did its job. A lack of offensive punch and a leaky defense were the major contributors to the series loss. The Aggie offense managed to squeeze out a mere 10 hits and four runs in the last two games of the Mississippi State weekend, and State's pitching staff isn't nearly as deep or talented as the Ole Miss staff.
Lexie Hudson, TexAgs
Nick Choruby and the rest of the Aggie lineup will have to be on their toes to scratch out runs against a quality Ole Miss pitching staff.
Braden Shewmake's at-bats must count. Runners have to be on base when he's at the plate. He's Texas A&M's best and most reliable hitter. Coming to the plate with two outs and nobody on-base reduces his ability to change the game and put runs on the scoreboard.
Blake Kopetsky had a big weekend with a couple of home runs, and he's raised his average to .307 recently. Can his hot streak continue in Oxford? On the flip side, Cole Bedford struggled at the plate last Saturday, going 0-for-4 with three strike outs in the two-hole in the 5-1 loss, and he did not play in the 4-3 loss in the series finale. For this lineup to be productive, Bedford needs to be in the lineup and swinging a hot bat.
For the rest of the lineup, it's hard to expect big production this weekend because Ole Miss will be salty on the mound. However, the lower half of the order needs to have good, extended at-bats, put some stress on the pitchers and run up their pitch counts. Mix in an occasional big hit or a long ball, and that could be enough to win what should be some low-scoring affairs.
The other storyline to watch is who emerges from the bullpen as the closer. Mitchell Kilkenny was completely ineffective last weekend, and he's been scuffling for several outings now. Even in recent games when he eventually notched the save, he's allowed base runners and had to squeeze out of some big, late-inning jams.
Lefty Kaylor Chafin is not your typical closer that can come in and overpower hitters, but he's the most effective bullpen arm right now. It's not even close. He's become the primary set-up man over the past 5-6 weeks. Does Rob Childress decide to move him to the closer role or leave intact the back-end of the Texas A&M bullpen? That will be interesting to monitor this weekend.
Christina DeRuyter, TexAgs
Texas A&M head coach Rob Childress has the Aggies in position to make the NCAA Tournament field with ease.
What's at stake this weekend
The series loss to Mississippi State has cooled any talk of winning the SEC title, and the probability of hosting a regional has all but fallen to the wayside. The only scenario where Texas A&M hosts an NCAA regional includes sweeping the Rebels and Razorbacks in the final six SEC regular season games and ending up 20-10 in conference. That close would likely land the Aggies a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament, and it would be hard to imagine Texas A&M being snubbed under that scenario.
But let's be honest, that's an unlikely scenario. So barring a surprise road sweep in Oxford his weekend, the Aggies appear headed for the road as a No. 2 seed in the first round of the NCAA regionals.
On the flipside, the only scenario where Texas A&M could drop to a No. 3 seed or drop out of the NCAA's altogether would be a 1-5/0-6 finish. I don't see a split series one way or the other having much impact on Texas A&M's postseason positioning at this point. So the marching order for this weekend is to win a minimum of one game. The Aggies must avoid the sweep. And if everything falls into place and A&M can secure the weekend sweep, maybe we'll be talking about far more interesting scenarios this time next week before the regular season series finale with Arkansas.
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