If someone doesn't double on an 11 when the dealer is showing a 6, I am going to question that decision.

We're talking basic statistics.

Personal decisions may vary slightly, but making three rights to avoid a left turn is crazy.

i can read the charts about ICU census of vax vs unvax, i see the impact. you can ignore it in terms of your risk calculation, that's fine.

totally agree that vax is completely a personal choice since Omicron cleared out the pretense of sterilizing immunity. if you want to increase your risk for developing bilateral pneumonia above the 2019 baseline, go ahead. i'll take the way out to revert to that baseline.

cone said:

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i'm surprised people are so intolerant of other people's risk calculations

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We should all be intolerant of things that aren't true. Risk analysis and decision making are personal, but a risk calculation should be based on best data - and that data doesn't say 17% risk of hospitalization, it says less than 1/3 of that.

Sure, for a hospital it matters if you reduce the hospitalized population from 5% to 3% - but that reduction is a function of those with a propensity for severe infection in the first place: the old and sick. Vaccinating & quarantining the young and the healthy just doesn't move the needle by a material ammount at the personal level nor at the service provider level.

The thing is risk calculation isn't basic statistics.....it's more complex

Going back to your poker example, let's say you have a 95% chance to win a hand of texas hold em, would you raise by $100. Absolutely. Now, would you raise and put your house and/or your savings on the line? Basic statistics say sure, but risk calculation is up to the individual.

Completely get that, but again you're using extremes.

A single 21 year-old can wage his net worth on a single deal. A father of 3 that's 2 years away from retirement - not so much. That's the same argument here.

• What's the severe risk of COVID? - In general, about 1%
• Where does someone fall on that risk factor scale? - which is exponential after ~50 years old
• What steps can someone take to change that risk factor?

You want to take the vaccine - great.
You want to lose weight and better your health - great.

But don't get me that hog wash I'm rolling the dice with my chances and I was lucky to come away with a good experience.

Old Buffalo said:

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Completely get that, but again you're using extremes.

A single 21 year-old can wage his net worth on a single deal. A father of 3 that's 2 years away from retirement - not so much. That's the same argument here.

• What's the severe risk of COVID? - In general, about 1%
• Where does someone fall on that risk factor scale? - which is exponential after ~50 years old
• What steps can someone take to change that risk factor?

You want to take the vaccine - great.
You want to lose weight and better your health - great.

But don't get me that hog wash I'm rolling the dice with my chances and I was lucky to come away with a good experience.

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You say I'm using extremes than pretty much agree with my point. You comparing a single 21 year old to a father of three was exactly my point. This isn't basic statistics as you originally stated, it's risk analysis which is more complex. The risk for the father is obviously higher than the single 21 year old. And not just because he's more at risk with COVID, the risk is higher because more people depend on him. His risk is higher even if the basic statistics are the same.

And I have zero qualms with anybody not getting the vaccine. You're right, based on all data, you'll be fine. However, several posters are not simply arguing why they didn't get the vaccine, they're using these dice and poker examples to point out why other's shouldn't get the vaccine and are dumb for doing so.

Quote:

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I'm going to question that decision

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For example, this quote. Now your latest post seems to contradict that as you said if someone chooses to get the vaccine, great, that's their decision. In which case, we're in agreement. Everyone does their own risk analysis and I'm not going to question their decision either way. As I understand their risk analysis can and will be different than mine.

JFrench said:

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cone said:

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you rolled the dice and came away a winner

i chose to further reduce my odds of pneumonia. i feel like a winner too.

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Don't cash in your chips just yet. Know two vaccinated that just got home from 3-4 week stays for pneumonia.

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I don't know one person that has been hospitalized yet. I am in sales and know a lot of people too. Just saying.