Could Vaccines Make Covid Worse Over Time?

2,687 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by eric76
NicosMachine
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AG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.22.457114v1.full.pdf
NewOldAg
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The conclusion within the abstract clearly calls for the creation of vaccines for each variant. I'm not sure I saw where they advocate that vaccines cause COVID to be worse.
NicosMachine
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NewOldAg said:

The conclusion within the abstract clearly calls for the creation of vaccines for each variant. I'm not sure I saw where they advocate that vaccines cause COVID to be worse.
I'm not a doctor, but a vaccine that "enhances infectivity" sounds like a case of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). My limited understanding of ADE is that it is one of the greatest fears of virologist, immunologist, and others vaccine scientists.

"Although Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2-immune sera neutralized the Delta variant, when four common mutations were introduced into the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the Delta variant (Delta 4+), some BNT162b2-immune sera lost neutralizing activity and enhanced the infectivity."

"Moreover, we and others have recently demonstrated that antibodies against a specific site on the NTD can enhance the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 by inducing the open form of the RBD (Li et al., 2021; Liu et al., 2021b)."

An entire section of the study deals with "Enhanced infectivity of the Delta 4+ pseudovirus by some BNT162b2-immune sera".
Get Off My Lawn
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Thoughts on topic from a zero-credential perspective:

The good:
A) more virus reproduction = more variants
B) reducing novel hosts should reduce virus reproduction opportunities
C) therefore the vaccines should reduce # of variants generated

The other:
D) suppressing a primary strain may give variants an easier path to achieve dominance (as well as their variants)
E) variants which might previously have been choked out by primary strains may now achieve greater reach than they would have otherwise
F) The suppression of symptoms through these vaccines may also exacerbate asymptomatic spread (people who would've previously self quarantined due to a cough are now out and about)

I may well be wrong on some of those bullets, and reduction in novel infections within at-risk populations has had a spectacularly positive impact... but when you fall the tallest trees in a forest the other trees go from suppression to thriving. Competition for resources and all.
Kyle Field Shade Chaser
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Vaccines create an environment for the virus to mutate more easily/rapidly vs. if everyone relied on natural immunity (vaccines didn't exist) it would be harder for the virus to create new variants. That is my none doctor understanding from reading too many reports, lol. Robert Malone being one of the interviews I believe who spoke about this (inventor of RNA).

But, going for herd immunity via naturally immunity would likely mean significantly more death so hence the vaccine.
Zobel
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The first sentence doesn't seem right to me.

There is one and one only reason viruses mutate, and that's from errors during replication. The number of mutation opportunities is identical to the number of replications. A new variant is just a random mutation that enables some kind of competitive advantage versus other variants. So number of replications, mutations, and new variants are all directly related.

How do vaccines make it easier for the virus to replicate?
PJYoung
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DFWTLR
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PJYoung said:




The study is "The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is poised to acquire complete resistance to wild-type spike vaccines" not about mutations. I'm probably wrong, but don't think Eric is debunking this study.
Windy City Ag
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I know Robert Malone has been discredited to some extent by a lot of other leading global researchers. I take him with a grain of salt simply because he keeps popping up on far right political media outlets and is not debating via more traditional research channels.

The dude does seem imbalanced. Interesting read on him. He is, interestingly, a COVID long hauler who has taken to blaming the vaccine for extending his symptoms.

Atlantic Profile of Robert Malone

NewOldAg
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Strange this thread hasn't gotten more traffic. I would expect this study to be a hot topic.
Zobel
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Haven't finished reading, but it is interesting.

The N terminal domain (NTD) is part of the spike S1 subunit, and the receptor binding domain (RBD) is what "fits" to the cell. They say the anti-N terminal antibodies are already ineffective, but the virus can mutate a lot in the NTD without screwing up the binding to the receptor.

Since the Pfizer antibodies focus strongly on the receptor binding domain, they say maybe if there's a significant mutation in the receptor binding domain, the Pfizer vaccine will be completely useless. The counterpoint is that the receptor binding domain is like a key for a lock, where the lock is the receptor on the cell. If you mutate there, that may make it less able to bind. So the mutation that would "matter" would be one that makes the antibodies for the receptor binding domain not work as well, but also doesn't prevent binding (or make binding less efficient).

Not so fast my friend, they reply. In addition to ACE2, L-SIGN can also be an entry receptor, and it binds to the N terminal domain, but not the receptor binding domain. So even if the vaccines cover up the receptor binding domain, the N terminal domain is still free to bind. womp womp.

They also propose that this could be a form of antibody enhancement. The wild-type antibodies bind to the N terminal domain but don't neutralize it, which changes the shape of the receptor binding domain, which make it bind better to ACE2. But, they say, this hasn't been observed in humans specifically, but maybe it has in the form of being the explanation for reduced protection.

This is all focused on antibodies, and infections. But it doesn't say anything about cellular immune system response. Something like this could be why infection protection drops, but protection from severe disease doesn't.

It also seems like it would apply also to someone who was originally infected with wild-type and developed antibodies against that.
NewOldAg
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That's a great response, holy cow. But you're right, I'm being a little to anxious considering the density of the study.
NicosMachine
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Windy City Ag said:

I know Robert Malone has been discredited to some extent by a lot of other leading global researchers. I take him with a grain of salt simply because he keeps popping up on far right political media outlets and is not debating via more traditional research channels.

The dude does seem imbalanced. Interesting read on him. He is, interestingly, a COVID long hauler who has taken to blaming the vaccine for extending his symptoms.

Atlantic Profile of Robert Malone


He seems to be quite a character and bit arrogant - the same could be said of Dr. Fauci. That said, I'm not aware of any scientific statements he's made that have been scientifically refuted. He raises legitimate scientific concerns. The Atlantic article mentions a single instance of Malone veering into conspiracy territory - he claimed that according to an unnamed "Israeli scientist," Pfizer and the Israeli government have an agreement not to release information about adverse effects for 10 years.

The article acknowledges that Malone was a pioneer of mRNA technology. He is not anti-vax. He advocates the Covid vaccine for the elderly and those at increased risk from Covid. Overall, it reads like a smear campaign and offers few substantive refutations of Malone's claims.
Zobel
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41401-020-0485-4

Good to have open side by side with op article.
eric76
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Motracicletraficificker said:

Vaccines create an environment for the virus to mutate more easily/rapidly vs. if everyone relied on natural immunity (vaccines didn't exist) it would be harder for the virus to create new variants. That is my none doctor understanding from reading too many reports, lol. Robert Malone being one of the interviews I believe who spoke about this (inventor of RNA).

But, going for herd immunity via naturally immunity would likely mean significantly more death so hence the vaccine.
I'm not sure that's true.

Mutations generally require infections (I can imagine that a virus could be affected outside of a cell such as being exposed to radiation, so it might be possible to have some potential for mutations outside of a cell). If the vaccine reduces the number of the infections, then that should be fewer chances for viruses to mutate.

What vaccines might do is reduce the competition between the mutations with the existing viruses, though, giving the mutation a greater opportunity to become dominant.

This is just speculation on my part. There is probably much that I am overlooking in this.
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