I'm looking for some data on the average age of covid deaths over time. The early variant obviously wrecked havoc on the elderly. With the vaccines, most elderly are vaccinated or have natural immunity. Most current hospitalizations and deaths are unvaccinated. If these assertions are true, then we should see a significant downward trend in the average age of death due to covid. Does anyone know where I can view this data?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

You can adjust the table to look at monthly age breakdown.

Thanks, I pulled the data from that source. There is a clear upward trend of deaths percentages by the younger crowd. However, the vast majority that are dying are still the elderly. Two things can be true at once, it is very easy to be deceptive with statistics.

"Deaths from COVID Delta Variant Triple for Young People Under 40" (1.5 to 4.5% of total covid deaths)

"Covid Still a Disease of the Elderly - People over 40 make up 95%+ of total deaths, even with Delta"

Both would be technically true but would leave to very different conclusions from the reader.

My conclusion is vaccinations are incredibly important for elderly, immune compromised and those with comorbidities. Young, healthy people under 40 are still not at huge risk to this virus. The vaccine will reduce your odds of having severe disease and hospitalization but the increased reduction in risk must be weighed against the potential adverse reactions from the vaccines. The younger and healthier you are, the more tight that equation is.

Correct, this analysis only takes age into account. If you die under 40, your likelihood of being COVID is 3.7%. I found that number striking considering nearly 100% of our risk mitigation is focused on a disease that accounts for less than 4% of the deaths in that age range.

RandyAg98 said:

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Quote:

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Covid Still a Disease of the Elderly - People over 40 make up 95%+ of total deaths, even with Delta

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40 is elderly? damnit.

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LOL no, I'm just giving example of the way a misleading headline could read. My main goal was to reassess the risk for young (<40) crowd with the new delta strain. The risk appears to have increased, when only factoring in age and time. But overall, the risk is still very low. Obviously comorbidity and vaccination status are large factors as well.

Skillet Shot said:

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Thanks, I pulled the data from that source. There is a clear upward trend of deaths percentages by the younger crowd. However, the vast majority that are dying are still the elderly. Two things can be true at once, it is very easy to be deceptive with statistics.

"Deaths from COVID Delta Variant Triple for Young People Under 40" (1.5 to 4.5% of total covid deaths)

"Covid Still a Disease of the Elderly - People over 40 make up 95%+ of total deaths, even with Delta"

Both would be technically true but would leave to very different conclusions from the reader.

My conclusion is vaccinations are incredibly important for elderly, immune compromised and those with comorbidities. Young, healthy people under 40 are still not at huge risk to this virus. The vaccine will reduce your odds of having severe disease and hospitalization but the increased reduction in risk must be weighed against the potential adverse reactions from the vaccines. The younger and healthier you are, the more tight that equation is.

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It's still basically insane to worry about kids and covid suddenly. Yet we keep hearing it on the news. I'm fighting a rearguard action with the school superintendent at my kids school to not shut down his grade because of a few cases.

What defines obese?

Not sure they are able to track the exact BMI of every patient that comes through the door or tests positive.

Admittedly not exactly on subject, but using CDC published data (which is published in rates per 100,000) and the US population size by age cohort you can back into the approx. percentages of hospitalizations by age... tends to show the shift that the vaccines have brought about with more older folks vaccinated per capita.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions

agforlife97 said:

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Skillet Shot said:

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Thanks, I pulled the data from that source. There is a clear upward trend of deaths percentages by the younger crowd. However, the vast majority that are dying are still the elderly. Two things can be true at once, it is very easy to be deceptive with statistics.

"Deaths from COVID Delta Variant Triple for Young People Under 40" (1.5 to 4.5% of total covid deaths)

"Covid Still a Disease of the Elderly - People over 40 make up 95%+ of total deaths, even with Delta"

Both would be technically true but would leave to very different conclusions from the reader.

My conclusion is vaccinations are incredibly important for elderly, immune compromised and those with comorbidities. Young, healthy people under 40 are still not at huge risk to this virus. The vaccine will reduce your odds of having severe disease and hospitalization but the increased reduction in risk must be weighed against the potential adverse reactions from the vaccines. The younger and healthier you are, the more tight that equation is.

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It's still basically insane to worry about kids and covid suddenly. Yet we keep hearing it on the news. I'm fighting a rearguard action with the school superintendent at my kids school to not shut down his grade because of a few cases.

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Yeah, I'm not worried about the kids themselves but they are seemingly gettin delta more often then before thus potentially spreading it more to non kids.

I got tested at CVS last week after my daughter tested positive for COVID. They don't have my height or my weight.

Can't track mortality by only counting those who die. Can't track who much of a non risk if your aren't tracking the BMI of those who only test positive but don't visit a dr.

Never mind the problems with the calculations. At the top end of the BMI I'm supposed to be 205 lbs. No doubt I need to loose some pounds but at 6'4 when I was 205 lbs I wore a 34-35 inch waist Jean. So if the 1994 me died of COVID and I was 210 lbs I would be considered obese.

Now if I got it today, no doubt I'm over weight but it's unrealistic to think someone of my frame could be much under 205 if that little and have any muscle mass at all.

You can track the percentage of people in the hospital or who die that are obese or not obese.

And at 6'4 you aren't obese until you're 250 lbs, you may be technically overweight but not obese.

I used to think the calculations were wrong too, and should include other metrics like body fat. But it's an overall indicator of where you need to be for your height so your body can function properly.

Not according to the CDC calculator, I'd think the 250 was accurate but it just told me 205 which was odd.

Knucklesammich said:

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Not according to the CDC calculator, I'd think the 250 was accurate but it just told me 205 which was odd.

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Anything over BMI 25 is overweight, anything over 30 is obese. So 6'4 205 you are at 25, at 250 lbs you are ar 30.

Knucklesammich said:

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I got tested at CVS last week after my daughter tested positive for COVID. They don't have my height or my weight.

Can't track mortality by only counting those who die. Can't track who much of a non risk if your aren't tracking the BMI of those who only test positive but don't visit a dr.

Never mind the problems with the calculations. At the top end of the BMI I'm supposed to be 205 lbs. No doubt I need to loose some pounds but at 6'4 when I was 205 lbs I wore a 34-35 inch waist Jean. So if the 1994 me died of COVID and I was 210 lbs I would be considered obese.

Now if I got it today, no doubt I'm over weight but it's unrealistic to think someone of my frame could be much under 205 if that little and have any muscle mass at all.

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Yep

A better way to track obesity is by using percentage of body fat

A ripped up football player, for example will likely exceed the weight limit by height, but it will be all muscle thus he'll have a low body fat percentage

Just using height and weight can be misleading

NyAggie said:

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Knucklesammich said:

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I got tested at CVS last week after my daughter tested positive for COVID. They don't have my height or my weight.

Can't track mortality by only counting those who die. Can't track who much of a non risk if your aren't tracking the BMI of those who only test positive but don't visit a dr.

Never mind the problems with the calculations. At the top end of the BMI I'm supposed to be 205 lbs. No doubt I need to loose some pounds but at 6'4 when I was 205 lbs I wore a 34-35 inch waist Jean. So if the 1994 me died of COVID and I was 210 lbs I would be considered obese.

Now if I got it today, no doubt I'm over weight but it's unrealistic to think someone of my frame could be much under 205 if that little and have any muscle mass at all.

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Yep

A better way to track obesity is by using percentage of body fat

A ripped up football player, for example will likely exceed the weight limit by height, but it will be all muscle thus he'll have a low body fat percentage

Just using height and weight can be misleading

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Focus on morbidly obese then.

If you have a BMI over 40, and low body fat, you are an outlier, and probably a competitive athlete.

BMI isn't perfect, but good enough at assessing obesity for the average non ripped football player (99.9999% of the population).

Skillet Shot said:

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My conclusion is vaccinations are incredibly important for elderly, immune compromised and those with comorbidities. Young, healthy people under 40 are still not at huge risk to this virus. The vaccine will reduce your odds of having severe disease and hospitalization but the increased reduction in risk must be weighed against the potential adverse reactions from the vaccines. The younger and healthier you are, the more tight that equation is.

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The risk of adverse reactions with the vaccines for young people is almost zero. Your risk of an adverse outcome with the virus is manyfold higher (while also being very low).

Fitch said:

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Admittedly not exactly on subject, but using CDC published data (which is published in rates per 100,000) and the US population size by age cohort you can back into the approx. percentages of hospitalizations by age... tends to show the shift that the vaccines have brought about with more older folks vaccinated per capita.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions

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Statistical illiteracy is a far more serious issue in this country than Covid. (And yes, I do believe in a 6 figure covid kill count and that vaccines are a net risk reducer.)

Slicing data in this regard while not separating out vaccinated vs not gives a very skewed picture. If 80% of the 60+ demographic vaccinated between these graphs while 50% of the younger demographics vaccinated the shift in population's risk factors skews the graph. Effectively, when you artificially shrink the largest pie slices the others naturally "grow."

So this graph seems to indicate that Delta is significantly more dangerous to younger demographics, but it's really showing us that vaccines are reducing the risk among the highest risk population.