I'd guess after the midterms. It would be the height of naivety not to see the political calculus that's is going on.

Just like you ALWAYS have to take your shoes off at
the airport, post the shoe bomber attempt, we will continue to wear masks in planes for years.

The whole eviction cluster will continue and the CDC will continue to advice Joey on it.

The whole voting reform disaster that is ongoing is very much tied to Covid

The virus (and I'm not an anti-vaxxer or feel it should be taken lightly) has provided a rich growth medium for a lot of political experimentation.

Its cool for the rest of the world to keep up the charade just for the sake of our midterms.

It's over when we say it's over. Get vaccinated or don't. You'll get it anyway at some point. Stop pretending we can control it.

it probably ends after almost everyone gets covid at least once

you can either face it prepared or unprepared

Yeah the masks are keeping you safe. Good Lord

It's sad that masks and vaccines are put in the same Category - as If they're equally good

What a f'cking anti-science joke that is

Everybody will eventually get it whether they are vaxxed or non-vaxxed. 99% will survive regardless of vaccination status. Natural immunity will prove to be vastly superior to vaccination. Eventually our immune systems will adjust and handle it like a common cold. It's never going away.

That's per my physician this week.

Diet Cokehead said:

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Everybody will eventually get it whether they are vaxxed or non-vaxxed. 99% will survive regardless of vaccination status. Natural immunity will prove to be vastly superior to vaccination. Eventually our immune systems will adjust and handle it like a common cold. It's never going away.

That's per my physician this week.

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Yep.

As I understand it they believe that a current coronavirus that we have been dealing with for centuries probably caused a pandemic when it first hit humans as well. But over the years we are so immune to it that it is now just a normal cold if that. Wish I could find that article.

This will be the same. That is why I do not understand this push to vaccinate children.

West Point Aggie said:

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I'd guess after the midterms. It would be the height of naivety not to see the political calculus that's is going on.

Just like you ALWAYS have to take your shoes off at
the airport, post the shoe bomber attempt, we will continue to wear masks in planes for years.

The whole eviction cluster will continue and the CDC will continue to advice Joey on it.

The whole voting reform disaster that is ongoing is very much tied to Covid

The virus (and I'm not an anti-vaxxer or feel it should be taken lightly) has provided a rich growth medium for a lot of political experimentation.

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Or pay the government a fee so they can vouch for you and let you go to a special security line. So long as you keep paying the fee.

If you don't think Covid politics are going on world wide you are naive.

agsalaska said:

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Diet Cokehead said:

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Everybody will eventually get it whether they are vaxxed or non-vaxxed. 99% will survive regardless of vaccination status. Natural immunity will prove to be vastly superior to vaccination. Eventually our immune systems will adjust and handle it like a common cold. It's never going away.

That's per my physician this week.

---

Yep.

As I understand it they believe that a current coronavirus that we have been dealing with for centuries probably caused a pandemic when it first hit humans as well. But over the years we are so immune to it that it is now just a normal cold if that. Wish I could find that article.

This will be the same. That is why I do not understand this push to vaccinate children.

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$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Cheetah01 said:

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This article is pretty bleak it its take.

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-covid-pandemic-end-maybe-2023-2021-8?op=1

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So why is Israel, who is the most vaccinated in the world (78 percent of eligible over 12 years of age are vaccinated), having one of the largest outbreaks of infection rates?

1 in 150 have the virus; 7,500 new cases daily

Half of Israel's seriously ill hospitalized patients are fully vaccinated.


Those numbers seem to indicate that the vaccinations are not working at curbing the virus. And more and more vaccinated are finding themselves in the hospital.

aggierogue said:

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Cheetah01 said:

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This article is pretty bleak it its take.

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-covid-pandemic-end-maybe-2023-2021-8?op=1

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So why is Israel, who is the most vaccinated in the world (78 percent of eligible over 12 years of age are vaccinated), having one of the largest outbreaks of infection rates?

1 in 150 have the virus; 7,500 new cases daily

Half of Israel's seriously ill hospitalized patients are fully vaccinated.


Those numbers seem to indicate that the vaccinations are not working at curbing the virus. And more and more vaccinated are finding themselves in the hospital.

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You are probably overstating the case of the vaccines vs. Delta.

Vaccines are not working as well against Delta as they did against the original variants, but it's not fair to say that they're "not working". They are working, just not as well.

Second, of course more and more vaccinated people are finding themselves in the hospital. The vaccines have never been represented as 100% effective in preventing hospitalization. So as more people get vaccinated, more people who are vaccinated and become infected will also be hospitalized. The key data point, which I have not seen, is the percentage of people who are vaccinated end up being hospitalized.

Look at the death rates in Israel. Despite the rapidly rising number of infections, the death rates remain remarkably low. Those low rates are almost certainly attributable to the vaccine.

GAC06 said:

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Israel's cases just surpassed their previous peak. Their previous peak in deaths (7 day average) was just over 60. Now they're just over 30, and apparently still rising. If 78% of eligible people are vaccinated and the vaccine is 90% or better at preventing severe disease, why isn't there a more significant reduction in deaths?

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Cannot answer that question with certainty - we don't have enough data available to us to properly analyze it.

The answer could be that the vaccines aren't as advertised in preventing deaths. However, it could also be that the folks dying are those that didn't get vaccinated. Again, there's simply not enough data to jump to any conclusion no matter how badly we want that conclusion to be true.

I suspect that a major reason is that it's simply a numbers game. Even though Israel is highly vaccinated, there are still quite a few people who aren't. The current death rate could be due to those who aren't.

And from everything I've read recently, the unvaccinated in Israel have a 9x higher chance of becoming seriously ill and dying than those who are vaccinated.

In addition, it seems that the Moderna vaccine does a better job against Delta than does the Pfizer. 100% of Israel's vaccines were Pfizer, or at least that's my understanding.

And last, it appears that the effectiveness of the vaccines wanes over time. Israel was the first to institute widespread vaccination, so the rising death rates may be an symptom of that.

The ultimate answer is probably a combination of all of those factors plus several I'm not aware of.

Perhaps the better question is not why Israel's current deaths/day is only 1/2 of its peak, but rather what did Israel do to keep that number so low even during the peak. Israel's deaths/million population is really low, only about 1/3 of ours. Did the vaccines contribute to that low death rate?

Coronavirus vaccines work. But this statistical illusion makes people think they don't.

Quote:

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Is the vaccine wearing off? It's an exhausting thought for those of us who believed the battle against covid-19 would be won once enough needles plunged into enough arms. But outbreaks of the delta variant have blossomed even in places with high levels of vaccination, including Israel, Britain and my own home of Madison, Wis. Recent reports from Israel that nearly 60 percent of people hospitalized with severe covid-19 were fully vaccinated raised particular alarms about the limits of the protection that vaccines provide.

While there is other evidence that the vaccines' protection against infection (not severe illness) declines over time and also some evidence that booster shots work we shouldn't be overly concerned about the Israeli hospitalization statistics. The explanation involves a famous old statistical curveball called "Simpson's paradox" which isn't really a paradox at all. It's just a reminder of why you have to be careful with data.

Simpson's paradox is a warning that the whole of the data often looks weirdly different than the sum of its parts. In the case of Israel as a number of epidemiologists and other scholars have pointed out what explains the surprising hospitalization figures is largely the relative ages of vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The University of Pennsylvania biostatistician Jeffrey Morris wrote an especially thorough and widely shared blog post making this point although the post was not shared nearly as widely as the worry that vaccines aren't helping you stay out of the intensive care unit. Anxiety travels halfway around the world while a spreadsheet is still getting its boots on.

Remember that a lot of Israelis are vaccinated, around 80 percent of the adult population. That's important. If everyone were vaccinated, then all hospitalized people would be vaccinated and that obviously wouldn't mean vaccination was useless. In real-life Israel, as of Aug. 15 using Morris's summary of official data 301 fully vaccinated people had an illness severe enough to require hospitalization. They represented just 53 out of every million fully vaccinated Israelis. At the same time, 214 hospitalized people were not vaccinated. Those people made up a much bigger fraction of the smaller population of unvaccinated people: 164 out of every million. So an unvaccinated Israeli is about three times as likely to end up in the hospital as their vaccinated compatriot.

But that's not as impressive a difference as you might expect, is it? When we get that shot, we're hoping for and expecting a lot heftier risk reduction than a factor of three. The really counterintuitive nugget at the heart of Simpson's paradox lies deeper. I learned last summer, from mathematician Dana Mackenzie, a way to make the power of the "paradox" really clear. It has to do with racial differences in rates of covid-19 infection and deaths.

As of July 2020, Mackenzie noted, confirmed cases of covid19 in the United States broke down along racial lines like this: 34.6 percent were Hispanic, 35.3 percent were non-Hispanic White and 20.8 percent were Black.

The distribution of deaths from covid19 looked different, however: 17.7 percent were Hispanic, 49.5 percent were non-Hispanic White and 22.9 percent were Black.

These numbers are startling on their face if you know anything about health disparities in the United States, which in almost all cases involve differentially bad health outcomes for people of color. Why was the proportion of White deaths so high?

The answer is simple. White people with covid19 are more likely to die of covid19 because old people with covid19 are more likely to die of covid19, and White people tend to be old (relative to non-White people). Break down cases by age groups and things look completely different, Mackenzie noted. Among Americans between 18 and 29, in July 2020, White people made up 30 percent of covid19 cases but just 19 percent of the deaths. Among people 85 and up, 70 percent of covid19 cases and 68 percent of deaths were White people. In fact, within every single age band of adults recorded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a covid19 case in a White person was less likely to be fatal than it would be for the typical American that age. Yet when you combine the groups together, the disease appears to be falling harder on White people because it was so much likelier to be fatal for the elderly, a group made up of a larger share of White people.

Something very similar is happening in Israel. Vaccinated Israelis, like White Americans, are older as a group than unvaccinated Israelis. And that's why they're going to the hospital at a rate higher than you might naively hope. Among Israeli adults under 50, as of Aug. 15, 3.5 million were vaccinated and 1.1 million were not. That's still a considerable number of vaccine holdouts. Among those 3.5 million vaccinated younger people, just 11 were hospitalized about three per million. Meanwhile, of the unvaccinated in this age range, 43 were in the hospital, or 39 per million.

Note that hospitalizations of young people for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated are low, because younger people rarely suffer the severest illness from covid-19. Still, vaccination reduced the rate of hospitalization more than 10-fold in the population under 50.

Now look at the population 50 and older. There are 2.1 million vaccinated Israelis over 50, and 290 were in the hospital Aug. 15. That's 136 per million, a rate that dwarfs anything younger people are experiencing. And unvaccinated older Israelis? There are very few people in that category: just 186,000. But of that group, 171 were hospitalized a grievously higher rate of 919 per million. In the older population, vaccinated people were less than one-sixth as likely to be hospitalized as the unvaccinated.

Clearly, the vaccines are impressively effective. Still, overall, more vaccinated Israelis were in the hospital than unvaccinated ones. This is a natural consequence of the fact that if you prioritize the most vulnerable people for vaccination which is what you should do then vaccinated people will be disproportionately drawn from the vulnerable population. That means more of them than you might otherwise expect will end up sick. (Since Aug. 15, the picture has changed somewhat: Israel now has more unvaccinated hospitalized patients than vaccinated hospitalized patients, possibly related to the rollout of booster doses at the end of July.)

Compare the situation in Israel with that in Oklahoma, whose weekly epidemiology and surveillance report gives an admirably thorough breakdown of the state of the pandemic. In Oklahoma, nearly a quarter of people over 65 are not fully vaccinated, a far higher proportion than in Israel. That means there's a huge reservoir of Oklahomans who enjoy neither the protection of youth nor mRNA technology. And that results in a lot of hospitalization in unvaccinated people. So in Oklahoma, fewer than 1 in 10 people hospitalized with covid-19 are vaccinated. That makes the vaccine look better at a glance than the statistics from Israel. But from the standpoint of public health, you'd still rather be in Tel Aviv than Tulsa.

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Yes, it's from the Washington Post (which I normally avoid because of politics), but the information seems unbiased and logical.

Another Doug said:

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Its cool for the rest of the world to keep up the charade just for the sake of our midterms.

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Look at Australia. Never let a crisis go to waste.

End game...boosters for life. Complete .gov control of your comings and goings depending on your vax status.

Just taking that from Biden's speech.

aggierogue said:

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Cheetah01 said:

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This article is pretty bleak it its take.

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-covid-pandemic-end-maybe-2023-2021-8?op=1

---

So why is Israel, who is the most vaccinated in the world (78 percent of eligible over 12 years of age are vaccinated), having one of the largest outbreaks of infection rates?

1 in 150 have the virus; 7,500 new cases daily

Half of Israel's seriously ill hospitalized patients are fully vaccinated.


Those numbers seem to indicate that the vaccinations are not working at curbing the virus. And more and more vaccinated are finding themselves in the hospital.

---

If 78% are contributing half of hospital population and 22% the other half, then the vaccinations are helping at roughly a 4:1 rate. It's just math.

This isn't hard. The end game is more government control.

StandUpforAmerica said:

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This isn't hard. The end game is more government control.

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Staff seems to support more control, since they won't allow a discussion on what is happening with this political virus. It's beyond public health, and I can't feel bad for anyone who can't see it by now.

Cheetah01 said:

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Watching UK and Israel, this thing popped and came down but is still going strong. Anyone have an educated opinion on when this thing ends?

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Whenever we are full blown communist, comrade. Take your ration of Joe Juice and await assignment to work camp.

There are over 200 million Americans who are vaccinated, and daily cases right now are 300% higher than they were a year ago when there were ZERO people vaccinated. Fauci and the lockdowners don't even attempt to explain this. Ask why.

— Buck Sexton (@BuckSexton) September 9, 2021

BadMoonRisin said:

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There are over 200 million Americans who are vaccinated, and daily cases right now are 300% higher than they were a year ago when there were ZERO people vaccinated. Fauci and the lockdowners don't even attempt to explain this. Ask why.

— Buck Sexton (@BuckSexton) September 9, 2021

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That guy is either really stupid or is being purposefully deceptive.