University of Florida study predicts when Delta will peak.

7,124 Views | 37 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by agforlife97
SBISA Victim
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AG
Thoughts?
Quote:

Hospitals have been filling up with more and more COVID-19 patients. But researchers at the University of Florida say we could be near the peak of the delta variant's surge.

Experts believe it could come around Aug. 18. Dr. Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics, was part of the UF team that put together this projection, of how the latest COVID-19 wave will look in Florida. The peak is far higher than previous surges but the surge is also expected to cease more quickly.

Researchers found, that based on how the delta variant has progressed in places like India, the virus will run out of vulnerable people to infect.

"We have people that have prior immunity due to natural infections, we have vaccinated people who have protection, so there's a balance and it will peak when it hits that balance," Dr. Logini said.
Experts believe cases will drop in mid-August and continue to fall until November.

"It really means we will go back to levels we were at in June before the delta variant, and it will probably stay at that level more or less until another variant comes," Dr. Logini said.


https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/university-of-florida-study-predicts-when-delta-surge-is-expected-to-peak/

Even though it's Florida I think the same model could be used on Texas as well.
Kvetch
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AG
When are you people going to stop putting faith in models that have been exponentially wrong for the past 2 years?
Gordo14
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Kvetch said:

When are you people going to stop putting faith in models that have been exponentially wrong for the past 2 years?


Modeling is better than covering your eyes and hoping for the best. The whole point of models is that they aren't right. Try running a business without modeling outcomes.
Fitch
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Learned early on the models are all only as good as their inputs at a single moment in time.

Certainly fair to hope a peak is around the corner, but I put no faith in any forward-looking analyses.

Schools reopening this week make the idea of a peak next week a little dubious - just my own opinion
chris1515
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It seems logical to me that if this is really as contagious as they say, it should burn itself out fairly quickly as it tears through a declining population with NO immunity.

Once it's in full circulation, who is it going to infect in month #2 that it wasn't able to in month #1?
barbacoa taco
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From the looks of things it looks like we are going for the tall and thin bell curve, i.e. the opposite of flatten the curve. So if that's true then cases should drop off fairly quickly. Hope that's true while at the same time praying hospitals dont overflow too much
Beat40
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Gordo14 said:

Kvetch said:

When are you people going to stop putting faith in models that have been exponentially wrong for the past 2 years?


Modeling is better than covering your eyes and hoping for the best. The whole point of models is that they aren't right. Try running a business without modeling outcomes.
The point isn't that they aren't right. The point is they help you determine if you're looking at the right stuff and if you have a pulse on what's going on. As people have said, if your inputs are crap, your model will be crap.

I would hope models a year later would be more accurate than they were in the beginning of this thing.
Beat40
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larry culpepper said:

From the looks of things it looks like we are going for the tall and thin bell curve, i.e. the opposite of flatten the curve. So if that's true then cases should drop off fairly quickly. Hope that's true while at the same time praying hospitals dont overflow too much
Well, Florida has like 90% of seniors vaccinated, which was part of their plan, so I'm with you that hopefully hospitals are able to manage and that with a younger population the hospital turnover time is quicker than last summer/winter.
TommyBoy
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Both India and the UK had severe Delta outbreaks and each peaked about 45-50 days from the beginning exponential rise in cases. Our 50 day mark is around this weekend so if we follow same trajectory, that model could be somewhat accurate.
Capitol Ag
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AG
Similar to what this guy said:



This has been the case in about every spike so far with Delta. Which is why I think it's pointless to institute any mitigation at this point. Once any mitigation is implemented, the likelihood that the spike will already be going down is VERY good, plus the harder it will be to end the mitigation. For instance, if a mask mandate were to be enacted like certain cities and counties are trying to attempt currently, the odds that a major natural drop in this current spike persuading those leaders to drop the mandate are slim, as in many cases its a political strategy only. I would advise those counties to be patient and watch that this will drop dramatically.

Granted, the TX Supreme Court likely will decide in favor of the Attny Gen and Gov. ending the mandates anyway. We will just have to see....
bay fan
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S
Beat40 said:

larry culpepper said:

From the looks of things it looks like we are going for the tall and thin bell curve, i.e. the opposite of flatten the curve. So if that's true then cases should drop off fairly quickly. Hope that's true while at the same time praying hospitals dont overflow too much
Well, Florida has like 90% of seniors vaccinated, which was part of their plan, so I'm with you that hopefully hospitals are able to manage and that with a younger population the hospital turnover time is quicker than last summer/winter.
Don't many of the Florida seniors leave for the summer?
Txgunrnnr
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TommyBoy said:

Both India and the UK had severe Delta outbreaks and each peaked about 45-50 days from the beginning exponential rise in cases. Our 50 day mark is around this weekend so if we follow same trajectory, that model could be somewhat accurate.
Yep, we're about 2-3 weeks behind the UK and then things will fall fast.
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” -Henry Ford

#FJB
agforlife97
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Numerous smart people have observed that the outbreaks seem to follow a gompertz distribution. People like Michael Levitt are predicting about 10 more days to peak based on this, and they've been pretty accurate in the past.
Another Doug
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agforlife97 said:

Numerous smart people have observed that the outbreaks seem to follow a gompertz distribution. People like Michael Levitt are predicting about 10 more days to peak based on this, and they've been pretty accurate in the past.
Thats unpossible, Michael Levitt already mathematically proved COVID was over in July 2020.
Satellite of Love
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Missouri and a few other states look like they are over the hump and trending downward with new cases.
barbacoa taco
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TommyBoy said:

Both India and the UK had severe Delta outbreaks and each peaked about 45-50 days from the beginning exponential rise in cases. Our 50 day mark is around this weekend so if we follow same trajectory, that model could be somewhat accurate.
Did this rise start in late June/early July? Feels like it started so much more recently
Captain Pablo
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Txgunrnnr said:

TommyBoy said:

Both India and the UK had severe Delta outbreaks and each peaked about 45-50 days from the beginning exponential rise in cases. Our 50 day mark is around this weekend so if we follow same trajectory, that model could be somewhat accurate.
Yep, we're about 2-3 weeks behind the UK and then things will fall fast.


UK case counts aren't falling

They hit a peak, Fell, but the decline has stalled, and they still have a very high case count

Deaths are still low, as with every other country.

India's case count Spiked sky high, and then plummeted just as fast

Hopefully, our experience it's like India, and not Great Britain
Another Doug
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Looking to India's numbers for guidance is a waste of time. A "spike" in India, just means a spike in people that have means to health care.
Bruce Almighty
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Another Doug said:

Looking to India's numbers for guidance is a waste of time. A "spike" in India, just means a spike in people that have means to health care.


No joke. There's no way all those millions of people in slums are getting any kind of healthcare.
Teslag
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Another Doug said:

agforlife97 said:

Numerous smart people have observed that the outbreaks seem to follow a gompertz distribution. People like Michael Levitt are predicting about 10 more days to peak based on this, and they've been pretty accurate in the past.
Thats unpossible, Michael Levitt already mathematically proved COVID was over in July 2020.


For most of us it was.
Another Doug
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Then thank you for your prolonged effort of trying to enlighten us to your big brain world where covid is over. It must seem silly to see all of us normies on a covid forum 13 months after it's over. some people here are looking for advice for friends and loved ones on vents, be sure to tell them covid is actually over.
Agsrback12
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Another Doug said:

Then thank you for your prolonged effort of trying to enlighten us to your big brain world where covid is over. It must seem silly to see all of us normies on a covid forum 13 months after it's over. some people here are looking for advice for friends and loved ones on vents, be sure to tell them covid is actually over.


The COVIDs isn't over just like the flu isn't over. Only difference is the Twitter blasts for every case.
Infection_Ag11
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We're peaking here in DFW right now it seems, based on internal data at least
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Teslag
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Another Doug said:

Then thank you for your prolonged effort of trying to enlighten us to your big brain world where covid is over. It must seem silly to see all of us normies on a covid forum 13 months after it's over. some people here are looking for advice for friends and loved ones on vents, be sure to tell them covid is actually over.


The advice for your friends and loved ones is to get vaccinated. That's literally the only thing they need to do and covid is over for them.
Another Doug
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gougler08
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Florida has been hovering at 1 or slightly less for last few days on Rt, so the 18th should be about right for the cases to start to decline. Obviously, how sharp of a decline is still to be seen

wcb
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Infection_Ag11 said:

We're peaking here in DFW right now it seems, based on internal data at least
My guess is that schools going live this week start a whole new round.
Infection_Ag11
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wcb said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

We're peaking here in DFW right now it seems, based on internal data at least
My guess is that schools going live this week start a whole new round.


I doubt it personally, kids are poor vectors of transmission of covid (as opposed to influenza, where schools are the primary source of transmission) and the R0 of delta is so high that it's burning through populations fast enough to prevent multiple spikes from that variant alone.

People want to give credit to ivermectin for the drop in India, but the reality is they are just so densely populated and it started running out of people to infect. The under reporting in India is second only to China.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Teslag
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wcb said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

We're peaking here in DFW right now it seems, based on internal data at least
My guess is that schools going live this week start a whole new round.


Wasn't it determined that children are not big transmission vectors?
Gordo14
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Salute The Marines said:

wcb said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

We're peaking here in DFW right now it seems, based on internal data at least
My guess is that schools going live this week start a whole new round.


Wasn't it determined that children are not big transmission vectors?


Even if they are I could see it taking the Rt from 1.0 to say 1.05. Anything that provides increased opportunity for transmission will result in more transmission. I don't think schools will cause a new huge spike, but I think they'll stall out the decline a bit longer.
Knucklesammich
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Infection_Ag11 said:

We're peaking here in DFW right now it seems, based on internal data at least
What is the thought on the downward slope of the spike? Does it plummet or long tail?
Knucklesammich
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Infection_Ag11 said:

wcb said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

We're peaking here in DFW right now it seems, based on internal data at least
My guess is that schools going live this week start a whole new round.


I doubt it personally, kids are poor vectors of transmission of covid (as opposed to influenza, where schools are the primary source of transmission) and the R0 of delta is so high that it's burning through populations fast enough to prevent multiple spikes from that variant alone.

People want to give credit to ivermectin for the drop in India, but the reality is they are just so densely populated and it started running out of people to infect. The under reporting in India is second only to China.

totally anecdotal, but that's basically what our pediatrician told us. its burning so fast through the kids and parents (not sure who is giving it to whom) that it has to run out of fuel.

I do think kids going to school will keep it around a little longer but I think kids back in school will cause a big spike of all the other crap. The kids across the street haven't been in school since 3/2020...they'll be puking by the first weekend is my guess.
Fitch
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On the phone this morning with one of our contractors who went down with the rona this weekend. Kid brought it home from camp he thinks.
ExpressAg11
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Which is why I'm confused on the masks in schools thing. Masks are meant to prevent you from spreading the virus, not from getting it. So if that's the case and kids rarely spread it, then masks on kids seems redundant.
jenn96
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ExpressAg11 said:

Which is why I'm confused on the masks in schools thing. Masks are meant to prevent you from spreading the virus, not from getting it. So if that's the case and kids rarely spread it, then masks on kids seems redundant.
Especially since a cloth mask only provides minimal protection either direction. For kids in class together for an hour or more - and all day in the case of elementary kids - they are literally pointless as a Covid preventative. Now N95 and the like do provide better protection, but no one is even remotely considering requiring those for kids.
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