I'm actually surprised by the headline. The real headline seems to be 25% of Covid hospitalizations in Oklahoma are vaccinated. This seems very different than the 95-99% that the doctors are experiencing in Texas. I know OK isn't a normal place, but it doesn't seem that different than TX health wise.

https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/unvaccinated-individuals-make-up-75-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-across-oklahoma/article_429f59b6-f6fc-11eb-95c0-53eb52f1b201.html

From the article, this kind of stuff is horrific to think about having to deal with the rest of your life:



Malik said that when a COVID-19 infection takes a turn for the worse it can destroy a family.

He described how an unvaccinated young gymnast came home carrying the virus and a parent became infected. That parent died two weeks later.

"What is this poor child going to think for the rest of her life?" Malik said.

The raw data for those interested.

https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/covid19/documents/weekly-epi-report/2021.08.04%20Weekly%20Epi%20Report.pdf

A few charts on the vaccinated cases...

John Francis Donaghy said:

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75/25 seems to line up pretty well with J&J effectiveness numbers. Was the vaccine effort in Oklahoma primarily Johnson and Johnson doses?

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I don't understand the dislike for J&J by others on different threads.

It has proven to be a useful tool. NYT and others reporting it is holding up quite well to delta.

The over-50 cohort makes up 62% of the unvaccinated but hospitalized crowd (surprising how many youngsters are hospitalized?) Same cohort makes of 93% of the vaccinated but hospitalized crew. Also - note the reductions in hospitalizations across age groups. Remarkable.

Wakesurfer817 said:

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The over-50 cohort makes up 62% of the unvaccinated but hospitalized crowd (surprising how many youngsters are hospitalized?) Same cohort makes of 93% of the vaccinated but hospitalized crew. Also - note the reductions in hospitalizations across age groups. Remarkable.

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Don't think you are reading the hospitals across age groups right. That % is total % of hospitalizations.

You need the vaccination % by age to really see if the vaccinations are reducing hospitalizations at different age groups. But overall in OK it does not look like it's helping prevent hospitalizations as much as hoped. OK is hopefully an outlier. Who knows. The cdc stopped providing breakthrough case info.

According to the chart there were 70 hospitalizations in the unvaccinated 18-35 age group from what I can tell. What's the corresponding number in the vaccinated group? I make it 4 - is that correct? I'm easily confused by these things, just trying to make sure I'm seeing it correctly.

Wakesurfer817 said:

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According to the chart there were 70 hospitalizations in the unvaccinated 18-35 age group from what I can tell. What's the corresponding number in the vaccinated group? I make it 4 - is that correct? I'm easily confused by these things, just trying to make sure I'm seeing it correctly.

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Yes those are the raw numbers, but we have no idea what % of that population is vaccinated. I.e. 80% of that age group could be unvaccinated. You can't read it as the odds of hospitalization drops from 11% to <1% for that age group.

Ok, fair enough. But would this not be true of the totals as well.

Never mind - ETA - I see they've posted the total vaccination rates elsewhere. Got it. Thanks.

But - thinking out loud here - if you assume a given vaccination rate - say 50% across age groups (I think that's the max, no?). How does this affect the manner in which you look at the data? As the rate goes down from that level, does not the presumed effectiveness of the vaccine go up?

Wakesurfer817 said:

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Ok, fair enough. But would this not be true of the totals as well.

Never mind - ETA - I see they've posted the total vaccination rates elsewhere. Got it. Thanks.

But - thinking out loud here - if you assume a given vaccination rate - say 50% across age groups (I think that's the max, no?). How does this affect the manner in which you look at the data? As the rate goes down from that level, does not the presumed effectiveness of the vaccine go up?

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no, as the rate of vaccination goes down in that assumption, the calculated effectiveness of the vaccine will also decrease because you have a fixed number of hospitalizations and are now saying that number came from a smaller sample size. which means the hospitalization rate per 100k people among the vaccinated cohort goes up, and the hospitalization rate per 100k people in the unvaccinated cohort goes down (because you are making that group larger with a fixed hospitalization number)

Ah - interesting. Ok, now I'm going to actually have to put this in a spreadsheet to understand it. Thanks for the help all.

KidDoc said:

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What is really discouraging about those raw numbers is the high number of patients under 49 that are not vaccinated and requiring hospitalization. There are more patients non-vax under 49 hospitalized than the entire vaccinated population.


I strongly suspect the comorbidity rate, especially obesity, is likely a factor in 90% or more of those patients.

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A buddy who is a surgeon in Tampa told me that at least 90% of their hospitalizations for covid are obese and have comorbidities such as diabetes.

nm

Another Doug said:

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The raw data for those interested.

https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/covid19/documents/weekly-epi-report/2021.08.04%20Weekly%20Epi%20Report.pdf

A few charts on the vaccinated cases...

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I would like to see the number of corresponding deaths on the last chart. It only shows hospitalizations

Not available in that format, but the total breakthrough deaths is 25, but deaths always lag hospitalizations .

Another Doug said:

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Not available in that format, but the total breakthrough deaths is 25, but deaths always lag hospitalizations .

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Thank you, how about for unvaccinated?

not really a good way to compare the numbers apples to apples, but lots more.

Put it this way, there have been 25 breakthrough deaths total since vaccines became available in OK (8-9 months)
There were 46 total COVID deaths in OK in just the last week

Among the 18-35 crowd in the hospital, 95% unvaccinated. Ages 36-49, 92% unvaccinated. Ages 50-64, 84% unvaccinated. Age 65 and above, 57% unvaccinated.

About 3-5% go to the hospital regardless but out of those unlucky ones that need to go to hospital, it's pretty clear it's majority unvaccinated.