Covid-19 Cases Now Fall into 3 Distinct Groups

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Capitol Ag
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10:08a, 8/6/21
AG
https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2021/8/5/22608142/us-covid-19-cases-deaths-delta-variant-vaccines

Great take on all of this. This is 100% unvaccinated driven and a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Also, shows the vaccinated should not be mandated to wear masks. Absolutely sends the wrong message that masks are as good or better than the vaccine and that the vaccinated are NOT a significant vector in spreading the virus. At least that's how I interpreted it.

Also shows that deaths haven't risen at the same rates that they did back in the Fall through Spring.
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ORAggieFan
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10:18a, 8/6/21
Glad to see this included:
Quote:
Unvaccinated people with natural immunity due to previous infection probably aren't showing up much in the case numbers right now because they do have immunity, and that immunity appears fairly robust to date.
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TarponChaser
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10:31a, 8/6/21
But when they put things like this into the piece it makes it suspect...

Quote:
Those people are facing a virus that has mutated to become more dangerous.

Delta is not more dangerous. By all reports and data it is more CONTAGIOUS but it is less VIRULENT. Meaning that if you're unvaccinated you're more likely to get it but less likely to get really sick.

Of course, the very rapid increase in breakthrough cases of Delta with the unvaccinated is showing this is also a pandemic of the vaccinated too.
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Zobel
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In reply to TarponChaser • 10:43a, 8/6/21
AG
I don't think you're correct about the contagious / virulent aspect. Here's the leaked CDC report.

They note that a Canadian study found higher odds of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death - Singapore study with more oxygen requirement, ICU, death, and pneumonia, and Scotland higher odds of hospitalization


Here is a comparison of vaccinated to unvaccinated, also from the Washington Post (pulled from that same leaked deck). I don't think it's close at all.

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Zobel
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In reply to mazag08 • 11:10a, 8/6/21
AG
I linked data for the risk of infection from the Canadian government / University of Toronto, Singapore Ministry of Health, and the University of Edinburgh in Scotland.

Do you have any information you'd like to share to support your opinion?
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TarponChaser
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In reply to Zobel • 11:14a, 8/6/21
Zobel said:
I don't think you're correct about the contagious / virulent aspect. Here's the leaked CDC report.

They note that a Canadian study found higher odds of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death - Singapore study with more oxygen requirement, ICU, death, and pneumonia, and Scotland higher odds of hospitalization


Here is a comparison of vaccinated to unvaccinated, also from the Washington Post (pulled from that same leaked deck). I don't think it's close at all.


IIRC, previous hospitalizations for covid and deaths for covid (pre-vaccine availability) were about double what they are with Delta with the unvaccinated.

So Delta spreads more easily but causes less serious symptoms and fewer serious cases/deaths.
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Zobel
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In reply to TarponChaser • 11:20a, 8/6/21
AG
Absolutely we have way fewer hospitalizations and deaths per case right now, but that's because a large portion of people are vaccinated which is a huge risk reduction. Based on the studies I linked, the delta strain itself is somewhere between the same to a little bit worse than the original-type - meaning, if we didn't have a big vaccinated population, the outcomes per case would probably be the same or worse.
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TarponChaser
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In reply to Zobel • 11:57a, 8/6/21
Zobel said:
Absolutely we have way fewer hospitalizations and deaths per case right now, but that's because a large portion of people are vaccinated which is a huge risk reduction. Based on the studies I linked, the delta strain itself is somewhere between the same to a little bit worse than the original-type - meaning, if we didn't have a big vaccinated population, the outcomes per case would probably be the same or worse.

But that's simply not the case.

The data you linked is showing that the cases are most prevalent and are more severe among the unvaccinated. We expected that. However, the rate of serious cases and deaths among the unvaccinated are still substantially lower from what they were before we had vaccines. Meaning compare the rate of serious cases requiring hospitalizations and death among the unvaccinated now vs. last spring/early summer when there was no vaccine at all. It's lower now.

And of course the vaccinated folks (and previously infected) who get breakthrough cases are experiencing even fewer serious cases or deaths.

The stuff you linked doesn't compare the rate of serious cases for unvaccinated now vs. a year ago when there was no vaccine.
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Charpie
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12:23p, 8/6/21
AG
I had one doctor tell me the other day, "the only reason you aren't seeing as many deaths is that these patients are young. They are taking longer to die."

Is it true? I don't know.
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Zobel
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In reply to TarponChaser • 12:26p, 8/6/21
AG
I think you missed the studies I linked dealing with this question (not the graphs).

Canadian study
Quote:
Compared to non-variants of concern SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants (Alpha/B1.1.17, Beta/B.1.351 and Gamma/P.1) was

52% (43-62%) for hospitalization
89% (67-116%) for ICU admission
51% (30-74%) for death

Increases with Delta variant were more pronounced:

108% (80-138%) for hospitalization
234% (164-331%) for ICU admission
132% (47-230%) for death.
Singapore study
Quote:
B.1.617.2 (Delta) infection was associated with higher odds of oxygen requirement, ICU admission, or death (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 4.90, [95% CI 1.43-30.78].

After adjusting for age, gender, comorbidities, and vaccination, aOR for pneumonia with B.1.617.2 was 1.88 [95% CI 095-376]) compared with wild-type.

B.1.617.2 was associated with significantly lower PCR Ct values and significantly longer duration of Ct value 30 (estimated median duration 18 days for B.1.617.2, 13 days for wild-type). Vaccine breakthrough cases were less severe.
Scotland study

Quote:
Sequencing data from Scotland has found that...97% of S gene positive cases sequenced in Scotland were the Delta variant and that 99% of Delta variants were S gene positive...

S gene-positive cases were associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 hospital admission: hazard ratio (HR) 1.85 (95% CI 1.392.47) when compared to S gene-negative cases, after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, temporal trend, and comorbidities.
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St Hedwig Aggie
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In reply to Charpie • 12:26p, 8/6/21
AG
Charpie said:
I had one doctor tell me the other day, "the only reason you aren't seeing as many deaths is that these patients are young. They are taking longer to die."

Is it true? I don't know.


That seems like an irrational thing to say! Did he/she say this based on data or was this a hunch?
Make Mental Asylums Great Again!
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TarponChaser
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In reply to Charpie • 12:26p, 8/6/21
Charpie said:
I had one doctor tell me the other day, "the only reason you aren't seeing as many deaths is that these patients are young. They are taking longer to die."

Is it true? I don't know.

That's absurd on its face and just doesn't pass the smell test.
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Charpie
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12:41p, 8/6/21
AG
She's ER doctor in Austin. So she may be speaking from frustration.
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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In reply to TarponChaser • 3:48p, 8/6/21
TarponChaser said:
Zobel said:
Absolutely we have way fewer hospitalizations and deaths per case right now, but that's because a large portion of people are vaccinated which is a huge risk reduction. Based on the studies I linked, the delta strain itself is somewhere between the same to a little bit worse than the original-type - meaning, if we didn't have a big vaccinated population, the outcomes per case would probably be the same or worse.

But that's simply not the case.

The data you linked is showing that the cases are most prevalent and are more severe among the unvaccinated. We expected that. However, the rate of serious cases and deaths among the unvaccinated are still substantially lower from what they were before we had vaccines. Meaning compare the rate of serious cases requiring hospitalizations and death among the unvaccinated now vs. last spring/early summer when there was no vaccine at all. It's lower now.

And of course the vaccinated folks (and previously infected) who get breakthrough cases are experiencing even fewer serious cases or deaths.

The stuff you linked doesn't compare the rate of serious cases for unvaccinated now vs. a year ago when there was no vaccine.
Nothing I have seen indicates this virus is less deadly. What you are seeing is a younger, healthier population who is getting hospitalized with COVID right now compared to 7-8 months ago. When you vaccinate most everyone above the age of 60, of course you are going to have a substantial reduction in deaths, as younger, healthier individuals are less likely to die from COVID.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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cisgenderedAggie
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In reply to Charpie • 9:01p, 8/6/21
Charpie said:
I had one doctor tell me the other day, "the only reason you aren't seeing as many deaths is that these patients are young. They are taking longer to die."

Is it true? I don't know.


It's 100% true. Young people, on average, will take longer to die than those that are twice (or maybe 3 and 4 times) their age. This has been a trend in America for much longer than Covid has been here.
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AgLiving06
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In reply to TarponChaser • 9:24p, 8/6/21
TarponChaser said:
Zobel said:
Absolutely we have way fewer hospitalizations and deaths per case right now, but that's because a large portion of people are vaccinated which is a huge risk reduction. Based on the studies I linked, the delta strain itself is somewhere between the same to a little bit worse than the original-type - meaning, if we didn't have a big vaccinated population, the outcomes per case would probably be the same or worse.

But that's simply not the case.

The data you linked is showing that the cases are most prevalent and are more severe among the unvaccinated. We expected that. However, the rate of serious cases and deaths among the unvaccinated are still substantially lower from what they were before we had vaccines. Meaning compare the rate of serious cases requiring hospitalizations and death among the unvaccinated now vs. last spring/early summer when there was no vaccine at all. It's lower now.

And of course the vaccinated folks (and previously infected) who get breakthrough cases are experiencing even fewer serious cases or deaths.

The stuff you linked doesn't compare the rate of serious cases for unvaccinated now vs. a year ago when there was no vaccine.

I mean...if we want to be morbid to start with, the first wave or two are going to clear out the most vulnerable. The "herd" should be stronger now than during that time.

Those who would be the more vulnerable now are vaccinated, which every indication is severely reducing the risk of death.

So we've essentially removed or reduced the pool of the most likely to die from COVID and so the rate falls.

So really the only thing we can do look at the different age groups across each wave and see if there is any material difference now vs then. Broad comparisons won't work.
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Texagsubscriber
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9:32p, 8/6/21
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Gordo14
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In reply to TarponChaser • 9:45p, 8/6/21
TarponChaser said:
Zobel said:
Absolutely we have way fewer hospitalizations and deaths per case right now, but that's because a large portion of people are vaccinated which is a huge risk reduction. Based on the studies I linked, the delta strain itself is somewhere between the same to a little bit worse than the original-type - meaning, if we didn't have a big vaccinated population, the outcomes per case would probably be the same or worse.

But that's simply not the case.

The data you linked is showing that the cases are most prevalent and are more severe among the unvaccinated. We expected that. However, the rate of serious cases and deaths among the unvaccinated are still substantially lower from what they were before we had vaccines. Meaning compare the rate of serious cases requiring hospitalizations and death among the unvaccinated now vs. last spring/early summer when there was no vaccine at all. It's lower now.

And of course the vaccinated folks (and previously infected) who get breakthrough cases are experiencing even fewer serious cases or deaths.

The stuff you linked doesn't compare the rate of serious cases for unvaccinated now vs. a year ago when there was no vaccine.


You are wrong because the unvaccinated populations when the original virus variants spread have different characteristics than the delta variant. With something like over 80% of the highest risk population vaccinated (the elderly) that alone is going to take out a huge chunk of the would be hospitalized that was defenseless in the first wave. If you were actually evaluating virulence in the public you would need to account for that by notmalizing for demographic changes in the unexposed popation. A good way to do that would be to evaluate hospitalization based on demographics, not overall hospitalization numbers. Like what percentage of unvaccinated people in each demographic are being hospitalized. The vaccine is what makes it look less virulent.

All the data I've seen suggests that if you normalize for demographics, this variant is slightly worse or equivalent than the original strain for those without any form of immunity.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to Texagsubscriber • 6:36a, 8/7/21
AG
Texagsubscriber said:


What they are really saying is that a much higher percentage of kids are in the hospital with RSV and other things. RSV has been way worse for kids this year than Covid. No one is talking about it.
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Aust Ag
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3:54p, 8/7/21
AG
My son was about 2 and in ICU with RSV years ago. Very scary,coded,the whole thing.
Viruses can be tough.
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GAC06
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In reply to Texagsubscriber • 4:36p, 8/7/21
AG
Texagsubscriber said:


You're saying some kids in the ICU of a children's hospital have covid? That is shocking and very scary news.
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AgLiving06
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4:40p, 8/7/21
Both my kids caught the delta variant (presumably)

Other variants had gone through their school, but this was the first to hit both of them right after their teachers got it.

Thankfully they got over it quick but it does seem to get to kids easier. No reason to believe the death rate will increase though.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to Texagsubscriber • 8:38p, 8/7/21
AG
Texagsubscriber said:
While this is gut wrenching and terrible, were there not children in ICU during the pre-delta spikes of Covid? I still think that Delta is still overwhelmingly not lethal or dangerous to children. I'm not sure why they would put this info out right as school is about to begin...
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Fitch
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12:12a, 8/8/21
AG
...gotta imagine it has something to do with a looming concern that students going back to school is going to kick delta into a new gear, and unlike the UK where hospitalizations became detached from case growth during their delta spike, here in the states the two rates have tracked tightly together.

To the question, though, kids have not been affected by covid in any significant way to date. So far in Texas there have only been 59 fatalities from covid under the age of 20, of which only 22 were under 10 years old. To hear 4 kids are on vents in San Antonio right now is statistically significant and kind of shocking honestly. Survival rates for adults on vents has been ~10%....hopefully that ends up being much higher for the young'uns.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to Fitch • 10:08a, 8/8/21
AG
Fitch said:
...gotta imagine it has something to do with a looming concern that students going back to school is going to kick delta into a new gear, and unlike the UK where hospitalizations became detached from case growth during their delta spike, here in the states the two rates have tracked tightly together.

To the question, though, kids have not been affected by covid in any significant way to date. So far in Texas there have only been 59 fatalities from covid under the age of 20, of which only 22 were under 10 years old. To hear 4 kids are on vents in San Antonio right now is statistically significant and kind of shocking honestly. Survival rates for adults on vents has been ~10%....hopefully that ends up being much higher for the young'uns.
Agree. Here is another question I have. What were these 4 kids' underlying conditions if any? They may very well have been previously "healthy" but this wouldn't be the first time that major underlying health conditions were not mentioned when speaking of particular patients who had severe reactions to Covid infections. I have come to expect it honestly. Are these doctors honestly speaking to a situation with no malice or effort to effect a policy or do they have an objective to try to make the Gov drop the "no mask" mandate? Seems the latter to me given the timing.

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Fitch
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In reply to Capitol Ag • 10:25a, 8/8/21
AG
No way to know but best bet is they have some pre-existing condition. Asthma, RSV, immunocompromised, childhood obesity... To be candid I'm particularly sympathetic to the some of those having been hospitalized with asthma growing up and a couple of cousins that have no issue feeding their kids sugar at every meal.

Agree the timing makes the optics looks off, but to be fair it is a topic de jour. Talking about it a month ago or month from now wouldn't make any sense.

The above video seems like a fairly straight forward regurgitation of data without editorializing. I have certainly seen other doctors express concerns about restarting school without NPI's and venture into stating opinion in Q&A but in the context of a public health advisory, not political commentary.

Edit to add the below linked article:
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2021/08/05/covid-19-delta-variant-putting-younger-children-in-the-icu-hospital-officials-say/

Quote:
Hankins said that in previous surges, at most, 2%-3% of child hospitalizations were coronavirus-related. The majority of those cases were kids in their teens with pre-existing health conditions.

Now, 10% of child hospitalizations are coronavirus-related, with half of those young patients in the ICU. Hankins said the Delta variant is also hospitalizing children without any underlying medical conditions.

"It definitely seems to be attacking these children differently, so more aggressive. So it not only spreads more easily but for the population of children, it also seems to be more aggressive," Hankins said.

With the school year right around the corner, Hankins fears there will be more child hospitalizations. He said kids should still attend class because they learn better that way, but they should be masked up and socially distanced.
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TarponChaser
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In reply to Fitch • 11:04a, 8/8/21
I wonder if there's a stacking of RSV with covid in kids that's an issue?
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bay fan
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In reply to Not a Bot • 2:24p, 8/8/21
S
Why do you try to reinterpret information? What they SAID was a four year old is in ICU from Covid. There is a family out there who loves that child. Don't minimize what they are going through by making up things that aren't true in this case.
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Nasreddin
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In reply to Zobel • 2:44p, 8/8/21
Are those double blind studies? Can we rely on studies that don't meet your ivermectin criteria or are we still suspect?
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Zobel
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In reply to Nasreddin • 3:15p, 8/8/21
AG
I know this isn't a sincere question, but I'm going to give you a sincere answer anyway.

Your question doesn't apply, because there's no intervention being tested. It's observational by nature, you observe outcomes for one disease type, then you observe outcomes for another.

The reason you double blind is to prevent the placebo effect from confounding your results. How would that come into play when you're doing an after the fact reporting of how many people were hospitalized for one thing versus or another?
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Nasreddin
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In reply to Zobel • 3:17p, 8/8/21
I know. I was poking. Lol.
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