Delta variant and current vaccines

20,584 Views | 173 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by thirdcoast
KidDoc
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Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)

My take on the new data from the recent delta COVID outbreak among the vaccinated:

Current vaccines seem to not prevent MILD infection with delta. It seems to be able to still get in your nose/throat and make a minor cold and you can spread it to others during this phase. The vaccines DO seem to be able to prevent severe invasive infection.

I suspect a delta booster will be on the market within 6 months.

If you have ANY risk factor for severe disease please get vaccinated ASAP. If you already had COVID you are likely protected anyway (for a currently unknown duration) so I would wait for a newer vaccine if you already have wild antibodies.

This reinforces my stance that healthy kids do not need vaccine especially since they already have a very very very low risk of severe disease and the vaccines do not seem to help prevent spread in the community.
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AggieAuditor
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Isn't this just going to keep happening with next wave and next variant?
Aggie95
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Yet another reason to not base policy on rising CASE numbers.....use hospitalization/death (and not percentage increases because the low counts we currently are seeing will cause people to freak out when deaths go up 50%...from 50 to 75!!)
KidDoc
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Possibly but is random as that is how these mutations occur. Not much different from flu in that regard although these vaccines still seem far more effective than flu vaccine ever has been.
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beerad12man
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AggieAuditor said:

Isn't this just going to keep happening with next wave and next variant?
Natural immunity FTW long term. Vaccines maybe in the meantime to get there.
DukeMu
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beerad12man said:

AggieAuditor said:

Isn't this just going to keep happening with next wave and next variant?
Natural immunity FTW long term. Vaccines maybe in the meantime to get there.
This will morph into an endemic at some point. Better to be vaccines and with booster, someday COVID will be a cold.
DukeMu
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Too easy, but...

AggieAuditor
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I'll take a booster
beerad12man
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I think it already is a cold for the vaccinated(and previously infected). With or without a booster. But if the booster is needed so be it. I don't think so.
KidDoc
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Yeah just an educated guess on my part, I have no inside info from pharma.
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Charpie
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I'll take a booster
B/CS Dreaming
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Thanks for the info, KidDoc.

My entire family (all vaccinated) has sore throats, stuffy noses and generally feel run down. Since none of us had the other classic COVID symptoms, I figured it was just a cold. Off to get tested so we don't pass it around.
fightingfarmer09
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What do you make of the new wave of media stories saying kids are no longer safe from Covid and we have a no hospital room left for them?
KidDoc
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fightingfarmer09 said:

What do you make of the new wave of media stories saying kids are no longer safe from Covid and we have a no hospital room left for them?


I have seen zero data on healthy kids being hospitalized or seriously ill. I'm all for vaccinating at risk kids as soon as possible.
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spacemanspiff
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KidDoc said:

Current vaccines seem to not prevent MILD infection with delta. It seems to be able to still get in your nose/throat and make a minor cold and you can spread it to others during this phase. The vaccines DO seem to be able to prevent severe invasive infection.
What is the long term risk of someone vaccinated getting a mild infection? Is there any permanent or chronic lung issues or anything else like that?
KidDoc
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Not enough data but it has not been reported yet.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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Thank you.
74OA
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Despite Delta, UK hospitalizations are plummeting, and there's no mystery why: "This means that so far, more than 88% of UK adults have had a first jab. A total of 37,287,384 people have received both vaccines - a rise of 117,956 - equating to 70.5% of adults." BBC

Fortunately, Delta seems to be concentrating holdout's minds here. US vaccinations are up 21% since last week. "Skepticism is a good thing," she said. "But to be ignorant is a different issue. My only regret is not doing it sooner." SHOTS
4the_Record
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Why does the CDC recommend against the vaccine if you were treated with covid convalescent plasma? The CDC says wait at least 3 months but my Doctor said give it a while longer. What's the risk?
thirdcoast
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Probably because your natural immune system is likely to wreak havoc on anything resembling covid.
4the_Record
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That's my thought but I haven't seen a detailed explanation. I didn't ask my Doc when I had the chance. I am concerned that even well outside of the 90 day window now, I could see complications.
KidDoc
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4the_Record said:

Why does the CDC recommend against the vaccine if you were treated with covid convalescent plasma? The CDC says wait at least 3 months but my Doctor said give it a while longer. What's the risk?


Passive immunity has been documented to prevent vaccines from working specifically IgG infusions. We don't vaccine Kawasaki cases after treatment with IgG for 6 months I think. I would have to double check the exact intervals I haven't had it come up in years.

I don't know if COVID vaccine has been specifically studied after infusions, it is probably just a safe assumption.
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88planoAg
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My MIL is scheduled to start chemo, I will be her primary caregiver. I have had covid, have active antibodies and am firmly in the camp that I do not need a vaccine.

Since the vaccines are proving to not (or weren't meant to) prevent illness or infectiousness anyway, is there any reason to get a vaccine for her sake?
Infection_Ag11
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The biggest benefit of vaccines with respect to some of the variants is that they've dissociated cases from deaths.
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4the_Record
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Good to know!

Thanks for the detail.

Just so I'm clear... the passive immunity from the plasma infusion then is different from the passive immunity I've received from recovery.
KidDoc
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4the_Record said:

Good to know!

Thanks for the detail.

Just so I'm clear... the passive immunity from the plasma infusion then is different from the passive immunity I've received from recovery.


Yes. IgG infusions are giving you antibodies that last roughly 30 days so your immune system can tag and bag the designated germ faster. They fade rather quickly totally different from vaccine.
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Sweep4-2
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I'm frustrated by not being able to find much info on the myocarditis numbers vs Covid risk for young men.

Got a healthy 15 year old about to return to school and trying to decide on whether to get him the second dose. Is there a source/site you recommend? Everything I see just recommends the shot while making an almost casual reference to the possibility of myocarditis.

Zobel
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I saw an interview with Paul Offit who used to be (still is? Not sure) on the CDC board for immunizations. If I remember correctly he said the latest estimate were about 1/20,000 but most are subclinical, and almost all are self-resolving without any intervention. I was surprised that it was that high. He also noted that covid infection causes myocarditis at a much higher rate in the same age group.
KidDoc
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Sweep4-2 said:

I'm frustrated by not being able to find much info on the myocarditis numbers vs Covid risk for young men.

Got a healthy 15 year old about to return to school and trying to decide on whether to get him the second dose. Is there a source/site you recommend? Everything I see just recommends the shot while making an almost casual reference to the possibility of myocarditis.




https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/new-information-for-parents-on-myocarditis-and-covid-19-vaccines-202107012523

They still argue for vaccine which I disagree with for teens with no risk factors. This goes back to the do no harm part of being a doctor. I cannot justify a risk of myocarditis in healthy kids who have a very low risk of complications for COVID infection if they happen to catch it. I could see the justification if it prevented community spread but that doesn't seem to be holding up.
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Zobel
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Doc, found some random stuff about covid and myocarditis...some overlap here

https://www.jwatch.org/na53704/2021/06/04/covid-19-myocarditis-athletes
https://academic.oup.com/ehjcimaging/article/22/8/852/6291399
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7988375/

If we trust the Big 10 study, 2/100 from the virus is a lot higher than 1/20,000 from the vaccine. Even if you go with clinical symptoms, the Big 10 study was two orders of magnitude higher from covid than from vaccine.

Not sure what to think, and since I have young kids I'd appreciate your input.
94chem
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Sweep4-2 said:

I'm frustrated by not being able to find much info on the myocarditis numbers vs Covid risk for young men.

Got a healthy 15 year old about to return to school and trying to decide on whether to get him the second dose. Is there a source/site you recommend? Everything I see just recommends the shot while making an almost casual reference to the possibility of myocarditis.




My 5 teens got both jabs. No issues. So, there's 5 data points. They range from disabled to state level cross country runner, if that matters.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
nattychamps22
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Out of curiosity, how did their immune systems respond to the vax? Fever, chills, cold symptoms? Just curious since you have five data points in that age.
Sweep4-2
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Thanks y'all for the professional opinion, links to studies and personal experience. Much appreciated! Will read up and make a decision this week.
94chem
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nattychamps22 said:

Out of curiosity, how did their immune systems respond to the vax? Fever, chills, cold symptoms? Just curious since you have five data points in that age.


Headache/fatigue for 2 days with J&J for one. Same as wife. No symptoms for Pfizer for the other 4. I had chills in middle of night with 2nd Pfizer.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
ExpressAg11
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As a healthy 30 year old who had COVID in January, it's so confusing on if I should get a dose of the vaccine.

Half the doctors/experts: "no, you shouldn't get it if you've already had it as you should still have immunity"

The other half/CDC: "OH MY GOD, WHY HAVENT YOU GOTTEN VACCINATED YET"

We are almost two years into this thing and still no one can agree on anything. I know the vaccines have only been around a few months but dang, people need to get on the same page.
 
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