Charpie said:
maybe you shouldn't be here on the covid board if you have to resort to name calling
CMP-00- said:
I appreciate your acknowledgment (and that of the "quite a few of us" referenced by AggieAuditor) that this complex and important topic has exceeded your capacity to participate in civil discourse. At least the rest of know who we're dealing with.
Thanks for the thoughtful, well reasoned post. Sadly, many will refute your experience and expertise but you are spot.CMP-00- said:
Background: I am an adult pulmonology & intensive care physician at a tertiary referral hospital in Atlanta. I am father to twin 13 year-old boys and a 7 year-old boy.
The twins are vaccinated and the little guy will be vaccinated as soon as it's available to him.
On an individual level, the absolute risks of either <major complications from COVID-19> or <major complications from vaccination> are LOW. However, the more pertinent statistic is the RELATIVE risk of <complications from COVID-19> vs <complications from vaccination.> If the chance of outcome "A" is 1:1,000,000 and the chance of outcome "B" is 20:1,000,000 then we can agree that both outcomes are unlikely. Nevertheless, outcome "B" is 20x more likely than outcome "A." That matters on a population level. Humans are objectively poor at assessing risk, especially at scale.
As it relates to our scientific understanding of the issues, I've seen so many people here and elsewhere state that "we know the risks of COVID-19 but we don't know enough about the vaccination." This is backwards thinking. We don't know a fraction of what we need to know about the long-term sequelae of infection, even in people who experienced mild cases. On the other hand, mRNA vaccination technology is approaching 20 years of study and these vaccines continue to be amongst the most scrutinized in history. Certainly there is more to be learned about vaccinations - but how long are we willing to wait to learn those "unknowns" while the known threat (which can absolutely be mitigated with vaccination) continues to needlessly kill thousands of citizens?
Everyone who dies of COVID-19 was essentially killed by the person who spread the infection to the decedent. Your child will probably be fine if he contracts COVID-19 - but what about the unvaccinated 45 year-old baseball coach to whom your child spread the infection? 10 days later he's on a ventilator Don't think it can happen? Come spend a day with me in the ICU.
shiftyandquick said:
The problem with the odds comparison is that we don't know the odds. It could be that the odds favor the vaccine in teens. Or the opposite.
I think it's interesting that the US is pushing vaccines in teens hard, but the UK isn't. I think in the US it is not due to concern for the teens, but more concerns for the general population (which is what CMP-00 is getting at).
My kids haven't been in school in 16 months. They/we have already paid a heavy price to keep others safe.
The correct answer is to vaccinate teens with risk factors and not the other 70% who do not (in my professional opinion).shiftyandquick said:
Situation in Germany - the scientific advisory board is choosing not to endorse vaccine for teens. But the political appartus is.
I'm certainly not trying to make anyone's mind up about this. Just gathering information.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-top-vaccine-advisory-body-stiko-holds-off-endorsing-vaccine-for-teens/a-58745325
bay fan said:Thanks for the thoughtful, well reasoned post. Sadly, many will refute your experience and expertise but you are spot.CMP-00- said:
Background: I am an adult pulmonology & intensive care physician at a tertiary referral hospital in Atlanta. I am father to twin 13 year-old boys and a 7 year-old boy.
The twins are vaccinated and the little guy will be vaccinated as soon as it's available to him.
On an individual level, the absolute risks of either <major complications from COVID-19> or <major complications from vaccination> are LOW. However, the more pertinent statistic is the RELATIVE risk of <complications from COVID-19> vs <complications from vaccination.> If the chance of outcome "A" is 1:1,000,000 and the chance of outcome "B" is 20:1,000,000 then we can agree that both outcomes are unlikely. Nevertheless, outcome "B" is 20x more likely than outcome "A." That matters on a population level. Humans are objectively poor at assessing risk, especially at scale.
As it relates to our scientific understanding of the issues, I've seen so many people here and elsewhere state that "we know the risks of COVID-19 but we don't know enough about the vaccination." This is backwards thinking. We don't know a fraction of what we need to know about the long-term sequelae of infection, even in people who experienced mild cases. On the other hand, mRNA vaccination technology is approaching 20 years of study and these vaccines continue to be amongst the most scrutinized in history. Certainly there is more to be learned about vaccinations - but how long are we willing to wait to learn those "unknowns" while the known threat (which can absolutely be mitigated with vaccination) continues to needlessly kill thousands of citizens?
Everyone who dies of COVID-19 was essentially killed by the person who spread the infection to the decedent. Your child will probably be fine if he contracts COVID-19 - but what about the unvaccinated 45 year-old baseball coach to whom your child spread the infection? 10 days later he's on a ventilator Don't think it can happen? Come spend a day with me in the ICU.
Is that the study that the Big Ten tried to use last year that was almost immediately debunked and then they backtracked to let their football season play out?FlyRod said:
https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/general-cardiology/heart-inflammation-after-covid-19-infection-in-athletes/
Here's at least some info on prevalence of myocarditis in Covid-19 patients. Not sure how the rates compare with cases caused by the mRNA vaccines.
The COVID rate of myocarditis is significantly higher than the rate attributed to vaccines. But it is one thing when there is a risk of getting COVID vs I am injecting you with this vaccine for sure. As a physician it makes one nervous when you are injecting something with marginal benefit and marginal risk of severe natural infection.FlyRod said:
https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/general-cardiology/heart-inflammation-after-covid-19-infection-in-athletes/
Here's at least some info on prevalence of myocarditis in Covid-19 patients. Not sure how the rates compare with cases caused by the mRNA vaccines.
KidDoc said:
Good input but in your scenario the 45 year old should/could have gotten vaccine- still not 100% but would massively decrease his risk.
I just have trouble with my patients with the "Do no harm" part of being a physician. If I know a viral infection has nearly no chance of killing or hospitalizing that patient it is hard to justify the risk of a vaccine that appears to be causing myocarditis (currently ~1000 reports) . If the patient has risk factors it is certainly worth it, but vaccinating all healthy teens/children seems like an imbalance in the risk vs benefit equation at this time.
You can argue for herd immunity and to decrease the risk of mutation but unless we are vaccinating the entire world mutation is still going to happen.
Myocarditis and Pericarditis Following mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination | CDC
TarponChaser said:Is that the study that the Big Ten tried to use last year that was almost immediately debunked and then they backtracked to let their football season play out?FlyRod said:
https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/general-cardiology/heart-inflammation-after-covid-19-infection-in-athletes/
Here's at least some info on prevalence of myocarditis in Covid-19 patients. Not sure how the rates compare with cases caused by the mRNA vaccines.
What about the rate of myocarditis caused by the flu or common cold viruses?
What do you recommend as far as getting the vaccine for teens that live with an immune compromised family member? Should those teens get vaccinated even if they are healthy themselves? My best friend's wife is immune compromised and my friend is overweight. Both of the adults have been vaccinated, but not their 15 year old. What is your opinion in a situation like that?KidDoc said:
I've had 0 MIS-C cases in my practice, which doesn't mean anything really.
There are lots of nasty viral associated syndromes that are thankfully rare but you don't see us rushing to develop and push vaccines for Coxsackie virus, RSV, West Nile etc. MIS-C is rare enough where it is not a good justification for vaccination in otherwise healthy kids.
KidDoc said:
Updated report from CDC 8/30- myocarditis seems pretty dang high after vaccine and almost all of them needed to be hospitalized. Check out slide 7 in particular showing excess myocarditis over historic baselines. I still recommend waiting on different dosing data if your teen has ZERO risk factors for severe COVID. Remember, > 25% of teens are overweight and this is a risk factor!
CDC Awardee COVID-19 Vaccination Planning Meeting
Agree 100%. Now I know the FDA is delaying the Moderna 12+ EUA as they are looking at different dosing schedules to see if they work without adverse effects. Why did Pfizer's not get redacted? Money I'm sure and the CDC did not want to have to backpeddle yet again like they did on masking pre-delta vs post-delta.BCG Disciple said:
What I struggle with is the lack of options and the reluctance by our overlords to concede any uncertainty in their unwavering vaccine rollout.
Many other countries are VERY reluctant to vaccinate children. The UK will only do it down 16 yo.
France will only allow 1 shot for kids 12-15 because the second shot is associated with the higher risk of myocarditis.
Israel is the same on one shot.
None of these are viable options for the US, because it would mean not projecting that our wonder vaccines are safe for all.
Pardon me if I make a decision for my children in line with their personal risks without factoring in decisions made or not made by other members of our populous.
cc_ag92 said:
Who is they?
cc_ag92 said:
Approval so that parents can make a choice does seem likely.
There is no way in hell those vaccines are going to be mandated in Texas.
Homeschool. There are lots of reasons to do it, but if this is your line in the sand, homeschool is the way to go.fightingfarmer09 said:cc_ag92 said:
Approval so that parents can make a choice does seem likely.
There is no way in hell those vaccines are going to be mandated in Texas.
I hope you are right, but I worry about those that aren't lucky enough to be in a state like Texas.
