Asymptomatic Transmission: Fact or fiction

4,621 Views | 36 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by nortex97
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Sounds like the science remains on the side of fiction.

Quote:

Here are some things we do know.

In May and June of last year, the Chinese government conducted an extensive study of the residents of Wuhan where the pandemic first appeared. In the course of this study, they conducted medical screening of ten million people. This included a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening program and also contact tracing. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases.

Ten million people at the epicenter of the pandemic were studied by a Communist regime with the power and authority to test them all and scrutinize their lives as closely as possible, and not a single case of asymptomatic transmission was identified.

Somehow that fact, that a study of ten million people found no evidence of asymptomatic transmission got lost in the shuffle, but increasingly physicians and scientists around the world are beginning to point out the obvious. We have no actual reliable evidence the disease spreads asymptomatically.

Even the WHO is grudgingly beginning to admit the obvious. Per that organization, contact tracing in multiple countries does not actually support the proposition that the disease can be spread by individuals who are asymptomatic. The number of asymptomatic patients is at a minimum far fewer than previously thought.
I'm vaccinated and will no longer wear a mask unless I really want to visit/patronize a business that insists on it as a condition of entry. The science seems quite settled, politics aside.
AgResearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

Chinese government conducted an extensive study


Right........

I don't believe in asymptomatic spread either but not because of Chinese data. Presymptomatic spread seems plausible.
bigtruckguy3500
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AgResearch said:

Quote:

Chinese government conducted an extensive study


Right........

I don't believe in asymptomatic spread either but not because of Chinese data. Presymptomatic spread seems plausible.


This has been said pretty often for months, but people frequently think the two are the same. And the thing is that it's hard to tell who will be asymptomatic throughout, and who will develop symptoms.
PJYoung
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Covid became a thing precisely because of presymptomatic spread. I think without that it would've been a blip on our radar.
ORAggieFan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The problem appears to be presymptomatic more than asymptomatic. When it is contagious you can't differentiate between the two.
Duncan Idaho
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ORAggieFan said:

The problem appears to be presymptomatic more than asymptomatic. When it is contagious you can't differentiate between the two.


This. It has been pretty much agreed that the data shows that asymptomatic transmission doesn't happen for a while now.

But

Pre-symptomatic transmission is a very real means of transmission.

The problem is that you cant tell if you are uninfected, asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic.

Looks like I made this same post in August

https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3131809/replies/57186857
Dad
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I know pre-symptomatic spread happens but almost everyone I know that got Covid and I know a ton of people that had it all were around someone that was having symptoms but just didn't know it was Covid yet. The two most common things were they thought they were having allergy problems or sinus problems and were around people and then later got more sick and found out they had Covid.
Bucketrunner
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Pandemic is done.
FriendlyAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore
ORAggieFan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

I hope we can continue to learn so we don't repeat so many of the mistakes we made this time.
ORAggieFan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

Also, matters when we hear the BS that those vaccinated may still spread....
TexasAggie008
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
"Vaccinated people can still spread covid" is akin to "shouting fire in a crowded theatre"

The CDC / "public health experts" should be ashamed of themselves
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
It really is. If you're worried about this virus you can get the vaccine. I just don't want more kids to be harmed by the silly stuff.
bay fan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
ORAggieFan said:

FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

Also, matters when we hear the BS that those vaccinated may still spread....
Nobody believes this. Check the cdc guidelines, it may have not been updated quickly enough for you but let's not pretend that's still a widely held idea.
ORAggieFan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bay fan said:

ORAggieFan said:

FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

Also, matters when we hear the BS that those vaccinated may still spread....
Nobody believes this. Check the cdc guidelines, it may have not been updated quickly enough for you but let's not pretend that's still a widely held idea.

Just yesterday Fauci said as he's vaccinated he doesn't feel safe dining indoors or attending a movie. I don't think it's widely held, but it is by the pro mask, pro lockdown anti science crowd.
bay fan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
I mean if you apply some common sense, of course Fauci is going to draw a very tight line because a picture of him sitting anywhere without a mask simply feeds Fox News a new way to pretend Covid isn't real.
GAC06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bay fan said:

I mean if you apply some common sense, of course Fauci is going to draw a very tight line because a picture of him sitting anywhere without a mask simply feeds Fox News a new way to pretend Covid isn't real.


He needs to pretend that vaccinated people are a threat to transmit the virus to prevent someone pointing out that vaccinated people aren't a threat to transmit the virus and shouldn't wear masks?
TheMasterplan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bay fan said:

I mean if you apply some common sense, of course Fauci is going to draw a very tight line because a picture of him sitting anywhere without a mask simply feeds Fox News a new way to pretend Covid isn't real.
And if you apply some common sense, you'd know vaccinated people aren't going to spread. It was stupid to think that from the beginning.

And you're admitting Fauci is just doing some for the sake of theater - not because it makes sense. We don't need to be treated like kids.
TexasAggie008
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Then why isn't the guidance "once two weeks have passed since your final vax shot - you no longer need to wear a mask"
ORAggieFan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bay fan said:

I mean if you apply some common sense, of course Fauci is going to draw a very tight line because a picture of him sitting anywhere without a mask simply feeds Fox News a new way to pretend Covid isn't real.

This is everything wrong with the public health messaging of the last 13 months.
J. Walter Weatherman
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bay fan said:

ORAggieFan said:

FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

Also, matters when we hear the BS that those vaccinated may still spread....
Nobody believes this. Check the cdc guidelines, it may have not been updated quickly enough for you but let's not pretend that's still a widely held idea.


Then why is the CDC still recommending masks and requiring a negative covid test to travel to the US (even if you've been vaccinated)?

If the goal is to get as many people vaccinated as possible the messaging should be "once you get the vaccine you can do everything normally." Instead people like Fauci are still playing politics.
chap
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bay fan said:

I mean if you apply some common sense, of course Fauci is going to draw a very tight line because a picture of him sitting anywhere without a mask simply feeds Fox News a new way to pretend Covid isn't real.


So the solution is to pretend the vaccine isn't real?
buffalo chip
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
bay fan said:

ORAggieFan said:

FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

Also, matters when we hear the BS that those vaccinated may still spread....
Nobody believes this. Check the cdc guidelines, it may have not been updated quickly enough for you but let's not pretend that's still a widely held idea.
Not true. This is still an active requirement for returning to the US from abroad. There is no exemption for those who are fully vaccinated. A perverse fraud...

My fully vaccinated son and his pregnant wife had to submit to a COVID19 test in Guadalajara prior to returning to the US. The testing center was a perfect place to actually get infected by COVID19 (for my DIL). At least somebody made some money from performing a required test on a fully vaccinated person. Good job CDC!

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/covid-testing-required-us-entry.html
PJYoung
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
buffalo chip said:

bay fan said:

ORAggieFan said:

FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

Also, matters when we hear the BS that those vaccinated may still spread....
Nobody believes this. Check the cdc guidelines, it may have not been updated quickly enough for you but let's not pretend that's still a widely held idea.
Not true. This is still an active requirement for returning to the US from abroad. There is no exemption for those who are fully vaccinated. A perverse fraud...

My fully vaccinated son and his pregnant wife had to submit to a COVID19 test in Guadalajara prior to returning to the US. The testing center was a perfect place to actually get infected by COVID19 (for my DIL). At least somebody made some money from performing a required test on a fully vaccinated person. Good job CDC!

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/covid-testing-required-us-entry.html

Yeah we had to do that to return from Costa Rica last month. I'm hoping that by our return trip in June they will have lifted that requirement for those that are fully vaccinated but I won't hold my breath.
agforlife97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
"Pre-symptomatic spread?" There's no evidence for this either, and that's not how other viruses work. In many other viruses, you can still spread the disease for a short period after you recover, but in a pandemic that's a lot easier to manage.

This, and things like the myth of "spreading from contaminated surfaces", children as vectors, and many other things in this pandemic have really given the epidemiological community a black eye, and they may never recover from it.

I see broad failures of public policy here, and the desire for autocratic powers in all level of government is very disturbing. Glad this is over.
BlackGoldAg2011
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
agforlife97 said:

"Pre-symptomatic spread?" There's no evidence for this either, and that's not how other viruses work. In many other viruses, you can still spread the disease for a short period after you recover, but in a pandemic that's a lot easier to manage.

This, and things like the myth of "spreading from contaminated surfaces", children as vectors, and many other things in this pandemic have really given the epidemiological community a black eye, and they may never recover from it.

I see broad failures of public policy here, and the desire for autocratic powers in all level of government is very disturbing. Glad this is over.
your first paragraph is categorically false. there is evidence for pre-symtomatic going back to non-chinese studies as early as January/February of 2020 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext). A lot of this got confuse though as there were also studies that started coming out showing asymptomatic spread as rare. And I don't remember who was at fault but there was imprecise language used to differentiate the two which led to confusion and argument. Also there are multiple other viruses that you can be contagious in the incubation period. Flu you can be contagious up to a full day before symptoms, rotavirus can be contagious for several days before symptoms just to name a few. The only thing that makes Covid unique in that sense is that in general it is contagious longer before symptoms and the incubation period can be longer.

I will however give some agreement to the "spreading of myths" part. While the scientists/doctors doing the research and writing the papers are usually not to blame (though sometimes they are) the communication on all of this has been terrible. A perfect example is vaccines. Early on, the general message being spread was "if you are vaccinated you can still spread it", but if you actually dug into the citations and research behind the message, what the original message from the technical folks said was that "we don't have hard evidence that you can't spread it post vaccination and we didn't set up our trials to be able to test that, so we can't say for sure. Also there is this other study in monkeys showing it may still be reasonably possible." Those responsible for communicating these kind of the messages utterly failed. It is fair to offer grace to the researchers doing their best to find answers to a novel virus in real time. "I don't know"s and changes to conclusions were to be expected, especially early on, but I have little to no grace for those responsible for communicating those answers, who, in an effort to so simplify the real answer, ended up lying to the public because the simple version lost so much that it no longer matched the truth.

FratboyLegend
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Dad said:

I know pre-symptomatic spread happens
asymptomatic means "without symptoms"

Pre-symptomatic means "without symptoms"

It's the same condition irrespective of what happens in the future.

Quote:

almost everyone I know that got Covid ... were around someone that was having symptoms but just didn't know it was Covid yet.
These people were neither asymptomatic nor pre-symptomatic.

This is a silly hair to be splitting IMO.
#CertifiedSIP
Duncan Idaho
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FratboyLegend said:

Dad said:

I know pre-symptomatic spread happens
asymptomatic means "without symptoms"

Pre-symptomatic means "without symptoms"

It's the same condition irrespective of what happens in the future.




postmenopausal means "can't have children"

prepubescent means "cant have children"

infertile means "cant have children.

Its the same condition irrespective of what happens in the future.
chap
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Duncan Idaho said:

ORAggieFan said:

The problem appears to be presymptomatic more than asymptomatic. When it is contagious you can't differentiate between the two.


This. It has been pretty much agreed that the data shows that asymptomatic transmission doesn't happen for a while now.

But

Pre-symptomatic transmission is a very real means of transmission.

The problem is that you cant tell if you are uninfected, asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic.

Looks like I made this same post in August

https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3131809/replies/57186857
The problem is that Fauci continues to use the term asymptomatic. He used it this weekend. He said 50% or more of the infections come from asymptomatic people.
chap
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bay fan said:

ORAggieFan said:

FriendlyAg said:

Bucketrunner said:

Pandemic is done.
Exactly. We are still arguing about this even though it doesn't even matter anymore

Also, matters when we hear the BS that those vaccinated may still spread....
Nobody believes this. Check the cdc guidelines, it may have not been updated quickly enough for you but let's not pretend that's still a widely held idea.
I assume what you're really saying is that nobody believes Fauci anymore. Because he keeps saying this as recently as this weekend.
Duncan Idaho
How long do you want to ignore this user?
chap said:

Duncan Idaho said:

ORAggieFan said:

The problem appears to be presymptomatic more than asymptomatic. When it is contagious you can't differentiate between the two.


This. It has been pretty much agreed that the data shows that asymptomatic transmission doesn't happen for a while now.

But

Pre-symptomatic transmission is a very real means of transmission.

The problem is that you cant tell if you are uninfected, asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic.

Looks like I made this same post in August

https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3131809/replies/57186857
The problem is that Fauci continues to use the term asymptomatic. He used it this weekend. He said 50% or more of the infections come from asymptomatic people.


I agree that is a problem and he should know better.
tysker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

infertile means "cant have children.
Boy do I have some stories to tell you
FratboyLegend
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Duncan Idaho said:

FratboyLegend said:

Dad said:

I know pre-symptomatic spread happens
asymptomatic means "without symptoms"

Pre-symptomatic means "without symptoms"

It's the same condition irrespective of what happens in the future.




postmenopausal means "can't have children"

prepubescent means "cant have children"

infertile means "cant have children.

Its the same condition irrespective of what happens in the future.
Thank you for affirming my point.
#CertifiedSIP
Trucker 96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TexasAggie008 said:

"Vaccinated people can still spread covid" is akin to "shouting fire in a crowded theatre"

The CDC / "public health experts" should be ashamed of themselves


Seriously. I was on a Zoom work call and someone parroted this because they'd heard it somewhere. The disinformation campaign is real and working on people
NicosMachine
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bigtruckguy3500 said:

AgResearch said:

Quote:

Chinese government conducted an extensive study


Right........

I don't believe in asymptomatic spread either but not because of Chinese data. Presymptomatic spread seems plausible.


This has been said pretty often for months, but people frequently think the two are the same. And the thing is that it's hard to tell who will be asymptomatic throughout, and who will develop symptoms.
I could have saved the country a lot of headache, economic hardship, and mental distress with my sage Covid advice: If you have any symptoms, isolate for 10 ten days or until you get a negative Covid test, whichever is sooner.

That's it. That's all we needed to do. The rest of the theatrics were unnecessary.
Page 1 of 2
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.