Excess Mortality Data for the US and Texas, Open Source

6,663 Views | 36 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by PJYoung
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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HotardAg07 said:

Beat40 said:

Hotard, for my education, what is the point of this analysis and the resulting use of it?

Are we trying to prove if COVID death reporting is accurate?
Basically.

There is a lot of concern about the validity of the deaths data for coronavirus, whether it's overestimating deaths due to people being coded for dying with coronavirus for some other spurious cause (motorcycle accident) or people not being coded as dying with coronavirus because they died of a stroke in their home and were never hospitalized or tested. There are also people concerned that those dying are people who would have died shortly anyways, for example the person with stage 4 cancer who gets it.

The all-cause death is a reasonable way to sanity check, although of course even it has it's flaws. It will be also mixing factors for such things as lower auto deaths, higher suicide rates, etc.

Some people have used the all-cause morality to show how big the problem is. Those with that narrative use non-population adjusted numbers and take the most aggressive time frame.

People who wish to use all-cause morality to downplay the extend of the problem will use a larger time frame and use population adjustments to reduce the extent.

I just wanted to cut the data all possible ways to help people draw their own conclusions.


So what you are saying is their are lies, damn lies and corona virus statistics
HotardAg07
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AG
Updated my graphs. Added a new shape next to my old shapes for excess mortality so you can see how the data has changed in a month. The data is now available to Mid-July, so still about a month behind. Shows that the US's second "spike" still has not shown a corresponding spike in excess mortality. Although, according to the https://covid19-projections.com/ model ,we'll see that bump more pronounced in August.



Starting to see the Texas spike in the excess mortality data. Seems as if the peak will be similar to the worst flu season in the last 7 years.


covid19-projections model:
PJYoung
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AG
HotardAg07 said:

Updated my graphs. Added a new shape next to my old shapes for excess mortality so you can see how the data has changed in a month. The data is now available to Mid-July, so still about a month behind. Shows that the US's second "spike" still has not shown a corresponding spike in excess mortality. Although, according to the https://covid19-projections.com/ model ,we'll see that bump more pronounced in August.



Starting to see the Texas spike in the excess mortality data. Seems as if the peak will be similar to the worst flu season in the last 7 years.


covid19-projections model:

Did you update it for this fall?
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