Trend is not improving for Texas Deaths. Let's hope we can turn the trend.

Have they updated for the Week ending
Saturday, July 11th?

ETFan said:

---

SirLurksALot said:

---

ETFan said:

---

Big Al 1992 said:

---

This should be the headline everywhere. But OMG the case counts!

---

Both are important stories. You can look at the increase in percentage of COVID in the TMC ICU to see why a steady increase in cases is news worthy and should be taken seriously. 44% of their ICU is COVID19 now, it was in the teens a few weeks ago. (as of 2 days ago, they're pretty delayed on reporting).

---

Yes, but total ICU bed usage for Harris county has only increased about 9% during the spike. 1467 beds we used in the beginning of June and 1600 beds are being used now. They still have over 300 beds available.

During the same time the number of patients with covid in the ICU has gone from 258 to 690. A lot of it is people that would've gone to the ICU anyway and are testing positive. They're not necessarily going there because of covid. That's why the increase in total beds being used is low.

---

Correct. They are sitting at 100% of normal ICU usage, 14% of that was COVID-19 3 weeks ago. It's 44% now. That's quite the displacement they are having to deal with because of the surge.

I'm not saying they are about to be overrun, just that the spike is translating into increased ICU usage, it's in the data, and is news worthy.

---

Is that jump from 14-44% due to COVID, or are there a bunch of folks that would have been in ICU anyway testing positive?

jeffdjohnson said:

---

oragator said:

---

Yeah as long as the cases skew younger we aren't getting to NY levels.
The question, as it always is, is what "acceptable" losses are. The last two days have averaged around 935 deaths, over a year that's pushing 350k if that were a constant number. Now weekends are lower, no guarantee it will stay that level etc...but making the point that even slow drips add up to a pretty full bucket after a while.

---

Sometimes in life, there is no right answer. The lockdowns have severe consequences: increases in anxiety, depression, isolation, loss of income, loss of job status, rises in domestic violence, suicide, and addiction. Not to mention ancillary effects such as people putting off health screenings. These will have long term health effects. Finally, the very far term health effects show that economic prosperity is correlated with overall life expectancy. This has to be juxtaposed with the benefits of a lockdown (or other invasive measures) in order to deem it effective. In this case, COVID-19 has an IFR of less than 0.5% that is heavily stratified by age group wherein almost half of all deaths are coming from nursing homes.

At the macro-level (as callous as it may seem) you have to weigh the various options. In a country in which 3,000,000 Americans die per year from all causes, I don't believe that a lockdown is warranted even knowing that COVID-19 remains a deadly disease. Individuals need to take appropriate actions based on their personal risk factors. The rest of society should do their best to support them by maintaining social distancing and wearing a mask if possible. Unfortunately, we will not be in control of this virus until a vaccine is developed or more effective treatments are found, regardless of what we are willing to accept.

---

Overall, a good post, but.....

But, by maintaining social distancing, you pretty much keep the bolded part in the first paragraph alive. Maybe not to the same extent, but many many people's jobs are dependent on others not social distancing. Anyone in the restaurant/bar industry, customer service, sporting industry, and many, many others. In addition, even if it doesn't affect your work, you continue to avoid human contact (no, zoom isn't the same as seeing someone in person) which causes depression/suicide, domestic violence, etc.

Just pointing that out. I'm going to keep golfing, going out to the lake, and damn it, if my parents want me to come over and have dinner with them, I'm going over and having dinner with them.

Like I said, good sensible post, but even with regards to social distancing, there isn't a correct answer. It will always affect someone. At some point, vaccine or not, people have to be able to get back to what is normal otherwise none of it is really worth it. Or at the very least some semblance of balance. IMO, once we get over this hump in Texas, we can return to relative normal. Doesn't have to be 70% herd immunity, but that 20% mark that seems so significant in many areas of the country.

Pretty sure it's a combination of both.

PJYoung said:

---

10 straight weeks:


Daily Average Deaths

2,143.57 <-------- Week ending Saturday, April 25th
1,884.00
1,799.14
1,384.00
1,224.29
983.00
899.57
775.86
636.14
589.29
518.29 <-------- Week ending Saturday, July 4th

---

Quote:

---

Daily Average Deaths

2,143.57 <-------- Week ending Saturday, April 25th
1,884.00
1,799.14
1,384.00
1,224.29
983.00
899.57
775.86
636.14
589.29
518.29
723.29 <-------- Week ending Saturday, July 11th

---

Looks like the 10-week streak is over, hopefully just an outlier

Through 2 days were at 422.50 vs 320, 350.5 for the previous two weeks so not looking promising for the week ending on Saturday, July 11th. Tuesday is usually the biggest number of the week so today's reporting will be interesting.