Dad,

As a mayor in the county, do you have access to the County Health Departments information on this? Are they not doing any type of tracing that would help give us clarity on the cause. In the end, people are going to do what they want, whether that be get on the river or go to a protest. But it would help if we know so we can inform the public.

Federale01 said:

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Dad,

As a mayor in the county, do you have access to the County Health Departments information on this? Are they not doing any type of tracing that would help give us clarity on the cause. In the end, people are going to do what they want, whether that be get on the river or go to a protest. But it would help if we know so we can inform the public.

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No. The Health department is not providing any additional information. They cite HIPAA as their reason.

New cases are to be expected and hospitalizations are staying pretty low with no deaths under 60.

I do think there is importance on where they most likely got COVID from for the sake of planning. Was it at a friends house, bar, pool, outside protesting, restaurant, etc. so we can keep planning. If the majority were protesting than opening up sporting events to full capacity would not be a good idea since it is a similar environment. But if they were are bars or indoors people need to know the risk.

P.U.T.U said:

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New cases are to be expected and hospitalizations are staying pretty low with no deaths under 60.

I do think there is importance on where they most likely got COVID from for the sake of planning. Was it at a friends house, bar, pool, outside protesting, restaurant, etc. so we can keep planning. If the majority were protesting than opening up sporting events to full capacity would not be a good idea since it is a similar environment. But if they were are bars or indoors people need to know the risk.

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Exactly. This is why it is insane that contact tracers in NYC are not allowed to ask about attending protests. This information would be incredibly helpful.

That's a good way of looking at it.

Also, I've heard complaints about a lack of contact tracings. But, it seems like that's exactly what's going on with these uptick in cases.

How can a person who is asymptomatic know to get tested unless they were told to? That's what seems like is going on with the cases in this area.

KlinkerAg11 said:

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How can a person who is asymptomatic know to get tested unless they were told to? That's what seems like is going on with the cases in this area.

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Probably because if they start feeling a little off, they immediately think "COVID" as opposed to allergies or mild flu just being tired. I know that for myself, now that I'm back at work and my kids are playing sports again, if I felt bad/exhausted/not right I'd go get tested just to eliminate the possibility and if I'm positive, to immediately take care of it. It's such a strange disease with so many random symptoms.

You're right.

It could be that too.

KlinkerAg11 said:

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That's a good way of looking at it.

Also, I've heard complaints about a lack of contact tracings. But, it seems like that's exactly what's going on with these uptick in cases.

How can a person who is asymptomatic know to get tested unless they were told to? That's what seems like is going on with the cases in this area.

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I think a lot of people will do some contact tracing on their own. One of the restaurant employees got tested because her roommate tested positive. Every restaurant is testing all their employees when one tests positive.

KlinkerAg11 said:

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Maybe I'm in the minority here, but isn't it good if young people get it and recover?

As long as the hospital isn't overrun this isn't really a bad thing.

Like I said my opinion, I'm sure some will disagree.

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Nobody seemed to address this. But, correct me if I am wrong, this is all good news. A bunch of people are getting it and only one older than 59 and all seem to be doing ok.

Isnt this good news??

Abbott said the Hays spike was under 30 crammed in bars if i heard him correctly. Now TABC is cracking down

I understand the thought process, but this is really hard to argue as good news. We're orders of magnitude away from herd immunity, and the right way to get there is a vaccine.

These are possible new vectors that may have passed it on to family, friends or others. Bear in mind too, cases have a % correlation to hospitalizations and even the young have some that will die.

Admittedly speculating here, but the same trend probably doesn't help any planning for schools going back or sports in the fall.

That's ridiculous. You don't need a name associated with it. Just numbers and causes.

Yes, Gov said TABC would be pulling permits for bars and eateries that do not follow guidelines.

155 more today.

Federale01 said:

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That's ridiculous. You don't need a name associated with it. Just numbers and causes.

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I agree, as do the other Mayors, but so far we have not been able to get the health department to provide the further breakdowns regarding activities or possible contacts.

Ages and races are reported, that's it.

We wanted to get employment, etc... to determine if we need to make any adjustments in policy, but we're kept in the dark.

The Fall Guy said:

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155 more today.

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yes. 92 of those are 20 to 29 and 108 are from San Marcos.


This also represents a 50% positive rate from all test results posted in the last 3 days.

The overall rate of positive tests as of 6/10/2020 was 9.7%

Now, the overall rate of positive tests is 17.75%.

Something significant changed in the tested population on or about 6/10.

Fitch said:

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I understand the thought process, but this is really hard to argue as good news. We're orders of magnitude away from herd immunity, and the right way to get there is a vaccine.

These are possible new vectors that may have passed it on to family, friends or others. Bear in mind too, cases have a % correlation to hospitalizations and even the young have some that will die.

Admittedly speculating here, but the same trend probably doesn't help any planning for schools going back or sports in the fall.

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My question when I hear the answer to this is a vaccine is...what if there isn't ever a vaccine?

I just think we have to come up with ways of living that don't require a vaccine since that isn't guaranteed.

Not to mention it's entirely possible that 12-14% of the us already has it. At this rate, even if we do get a vaccine, herd immunity might beat it anyways

Dad-O-Lot said:

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The Fall Guy said:

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155 more today.

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yes. 92 of those are 20 to 29 and 108 are from San Marcos.


This also represents a 50% positive rate from all test results posted in the last 3 days.

The overall rate of positive tests as of 6/10/2020 was 9.7%

Now, the overall rate of positive tests is 17.75%.

Something significant changed in the tested population on or about 6/10.

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I wonder if the tested population is changing because seasonal sicknesses like the flu are down during this time as well as most allergies. I would bet that serves as one of the many reasons we're seeing a higher hit rate on positive cases.

Interesting. 55 recovered today. So really only added 100 more.

That is a fast recovery. The younger population looks to be beating this fast.

Fitch said:

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I understand the thought process, but this is really hard to argue as good news. We're orders of magnitude away from herd immunity, and the right way to get there is a vaccine.

These are possible new vectors that may have passed it on to family, friends or others. Bear in mind too, cases have a % correlation to hospitalizations and even the young have some that will die.

Admittedly speculating here, but the same trend probably doesn't help any planning for schools going back or sports in the fall.

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I guess. I would be more inclined to agree with you if I had more confidence in a timely vaccine.

I am more on the page that it is going to run its course thru the population more than we would like and staying open is crucial. So when I hear about a bunch of cases and it not being completely devastating I see it as a win.

And I understand some young die. My roommate from A&M died at 34 from pneumonia that developed from the flu. I don't say that in any way to bring up the stupid which is worse flu/covid argument. My point is the fact that Covid-19 occasionally kills a younger person does not by itself make it exceptional.

The Fall Guy said:

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Interesting. 55 recovered today. So really only added 100 more.

That is a fast recovery. The younger population looks to be beating this fast.

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That would be fantastic!

Yea thay would be good news on recoveries. This is kind of getting interesting living here. Don't want to get it but still seeing the Demographics kind of Supports how fast it spreads in certain age groups.

2 weeks ago the Hispanic rate was 75 percent. Today it is 42 percent. Now the Whites, blacks and Asians have risen.

Fitch said:

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I understand the thought process, but this is really hard to argue as good news. We're orders of magnitude away from herd immunity, and the right way to get there is a vaccine.

These are possible new vectors that may have passed it on to family, friends or others. Bear in mind too, cases have a % correlation to hospitalizations and even the young have some that will die.

Admittedly speculating here, but the same trend probably doesn't help any planning for schools going back or sports in the fall.

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You assume the non-existence of cross-immunity or natural immunity.

Infection rates have plummeted elsewhere in the world much, much faster than herd immunity would suggest is possible.

That either means a large portion of the population cannot be infected or has experienced an asymptomatic course.

Or maybe they are following common sense precautions?

The Fall Guy said:

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Interesting. 55 recovered today. So really only added 100 more.

That is a fast recovery. The younger population looks to be beating this fast.

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Those recoveries are most likely NOT from this recent group.

They are most likely from people who got it between 5/22 and 5/29.

There are currently 322 recovered.

We exceeded 322 cases on 5/29. (we also exceeded 327 that day, which would account for the deceased numbers as well.)

If it takes 14 days to recover, then we may expect another 71 cases to recover over the next few days. This would be related to the 71 new cases added between 529 (The first day in which the number of cases exceeded the current number of recovered) and 6/3 (14 days ago)

I don't know if the health department will count someone as "recovered" before 14 days after their symptoms started.

I need to investigate the criteria used to officially consider someone recovered. I am not certain what it is.

The Fall Guy said:

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Interesting. 55 recovered today. So really only added 100 more.

That is a fast recovery. The younger population looks to be beating this fast.

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I know of decently large group of young (college kids) that tested positive recently. These were confirmed tests, not just suspected. All where symptom free in 72 hours. Most said it was no different than an average cold. If the data here is right, recoveries could be very quick.

Now for these data purposes, I'd think recovered needs a negative test. The group I know of is quarantining 14 days even though symptom free. I'm not sure when they'll retest.

Some of it is protests, most of it is college kids at bars and general socializing.

CowtownAg06 said:

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The Fall Guy said:

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Interesting. 55 recovered today. So really only added 100 more.

That is a fast recovery. The younger population looks to be beating this fast.

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I know of decently large group of young (college kids) that tested positive recently. These were confirmed tests, not just suspected. All where symptom free in 72 hours. Most said it was no different than an average cold. If the data here is right, recoveries could be very quick.

Now for these data purposes, I'd think recovered needs a negative test. The group I know of is quarantining 14 days even though symptom free. I'm not sure when they'll retest.

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Out of curiosity, how did this group you know acquire the virus?

They were working together.

Not Hays. Or even Texas.

But Florida has good age data.

If Abbott has seen similar Texas data, it would explain his comments yesterday about young people.

Here's some Texas Data. I don't see the median age, but good stuff here.
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Keegan99 said:

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Not Hays. Or even Texas.

But Florida has good age data.

If Abbott has seen similar Texas data, it would explain his comments yesterday about young people.

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Hopefully the hospitalization data isn't following the same trend

Yea, I've seen that. Looks pretty and bogs down browsers, but doesn't actually say much.

The "Case Demographics" tab is only about 1 out of 6 cases. And none of that data is dated. Either by date of investigation, date of test administration, or date of test result. It also doesn't indicate type of test (was it antibody after the fact? or PCR?).

It's effectively worthless.

I think cases by age and especially the fatalities by age tell an interesting story. Look like there have been more deaths over 80 than under 70 so far.