DFWTLR said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

billydean05 said:

---

Look hospitalizations are increasing however not at a quick rate and not at anything to get even remotely worked up about. They have gone up from a low of 1500-1600 to a high of 2100 in a month. This will plateau here shortly. If it triples from these levels or quickly doubles in a week or less from current levels then could be cause to reevaluate.

---

Why would it plateau? Our actions lately are much more likely to accelerate things than have them plateau. I'm not saying we panic - I'm saying at this point we really need to expect this to double or triple in the next few weeks. Potentially worse.

---

Are we back to saying it'll get worse in 2 weeks? The protests started over 2 weeks ago, even Clay Jenkins is admitting the increase in cases is due to testing, nursing homes specifically.

Maybe I'm wrong but I seriously doubt we will have triple the hospitalizations from 2000 today, even if we did we would have over 9,000 beds left in Texas.

---

9,000 beds seems like a lot unless you have 100,000 (many of which are pre symptomatic) active infections who are all capable of getting another 2 people sick who are also then capable of getting 4 more people sick all in short order. Even if you have an optimistic 5% hospitalization rate you will be on the brink once that wave of people come to the hospital. Which is why you can't just casually ignore the situation because we have tons of hospital beds. If you wait until you have a couple thousand beds you'll almost certainly overshoot your capacity. It's not a light switch you can turn on and off.

Gordo14 said:

---

billydean05 said:

---

Not been shown to be the case in other states as they open up. No large spikes in other states that are opening up.

---

14 states have seen a large spike in cases - Arizona in particular. And given that many states have not really opened up or had a significant amount of cases at any point, it's like 14/25 states. This does not suggest it'll calmly plateau and we can just pretend this doesn't exist.

---

Arizona is not having the problem you think it is.

is the Rt 2.0 anywhere in the country right now?

Gordo14 said:

---

9,000 beds seems like a lot unless you have 100,000 (many of which are pre symptomatic) active infections who are all capable of getting another 2 people sick who are also then capable of getting 4 more people sick all in short order. Even if you have an optimistic 5% hospitalization rate you will be on the brink once that wave of people come to the hospital. Which is why you can't just casually ignore the situation because we have tons of hospital beds. If you wait until you have a couple thousand beds you'll almost certainly overshoot your capacity. It's not a light switch you can turn on and off.

---

It's like you are just copying and pasting fear porn from March.

Nowhere in the US has overshot capacity.

And it won't come close to happening in Texas.

cone said:

---

is the Rt 2.0 anywhere in the country right now?

---

No. Not even close.

https://rt.live/

This is a sound Bayesian model, but is susceptible to inflated Rt from increased testing volume and confirmed cases.

Keegan99 said:

---

4) Patients coming to the hospital for other reasons, being tested as a matter of protocol, and discovering a positive.

---

From recent (this week) family experience with day surgery, incoming patients are tested 24-48 hours before and if they test positive they are not admitted.

Fitch said:

---

Keegan99 said:

---

4) Patients coming to the hospital for other reasons, being tested as a matter of protocol, and discovering a positive.

---

From recent (this week) family experience with day surgery, incoming patients are tested 24-48 hours before and if they test positive they are not admitted.

---

That's day surgery. If you show up with, say, a cardiac issue or anything non-elective you're still going to be admitted.

Please see Georgia link

https://www.covid-georgia.com/current-hospitalizations/

Fair to say, but that qualification knocks down the population size. May be wrong, but I'm doubtful that would explain the upward trend over the last week or so. Might be a contributing factor, though.

I remember reading articles detailing the hundreds of patients transferred to various pop-up/temporary hospitals in NYC, but I come here and people say they all sat empty. As far as whether that meant "the system" was "overwhelmed", I guess those are both subjectively defined but they did move many Covid patients to temporary facilities. In a very large dense city like Houston or Dallas, it seemed possible and it is great to see we have not even begun to approach capacities. I know other coronaviruses are seasonal, and it's reasonable to assume this novel one as well, so perhaps that has been helping. Whatever the case may be, things have gone very well in Texas all things considered.

More record lows here in Virginia today. The decrease has accelerated since we opened up and has not reversed course. Even with the recent protests, things are still sharply declining. 5 of the 6 deaths reported today occurred in nursing homes.

https://www.wavy.com/news/virginia/virginia-june-11-covid-19-update-4th-straight-day-of-low-case-numbers-reported-hospitalizations-continue-to-fall/

Gordo14 said:

---

DFWTLR said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

billydean05 said:

---

Look hospitalizations are increasing however not at a quick rate and not at anything to get even remotely worked up about. They have gone up from a low of 1500-1600 to a high of 2100 in a month. This will plateau here shortly. If it triples from these levels or quickly doubles in a week or less from current levels then could be cause to reevaluate.

---

Why would it plateau? Our actions lately are much more likely to accelerate things than have them plateau. I'm not saying we panic - I'm saying at this point we really need to expect this to double or triple in the next few weeks. Potentially worse.

---

Are we back to saying it'll get worse in 2 weeks? The protests started over 2 weeks ago, even Clay Jenkins is admitting the increase in cases is due to testing, nursing homes specifically.

Maybe I'm wrong but I seriously doubt we will have triple the hospitalizations from 2000 today, even if we did we would have over 9,000 beds left in Texas.

---

9,000 beds seems like a lot unless you have 100,000 (many of which are pre symptomatic) active infections who are all capable of getting another 2 people sick who are also then capable of getting 4 more people sick all in short order. Even if you have an optimistic 5% hospitalization rate you will be on the brink once that wave of people come to the hospital. Which is why you can't just casually ignore the situation because we have tons of hospital beds. If you wait until you have a couple thousand beds you'll almost certainly overshoot your capacity. It's not a light switch you can turn on and off.

---

To a degree you can turn on and off the occupied beds, end elective surgeries, set up emergency hospitals etc. We will never get there, EVER, but if we do go over capacity there are ways to mitigate.

Found Texas data by Region. Houston is a strong driver in recent uptick in Hospitalization.

What are you asking? Just sharing a story because I'm frustrated.

Keegan99 said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

9,000 beds seems like a lot unless you have 100,000 (many of which are pre symptomatic) active infections who are all capable of getting another 2 people sick who are also then capable of getting 4 more people sick all in short order. Even if you have an optimistic 5% hospitalization rate you will be on the brink once that wave of people come to the hospital. Which is why you can't just casually ignore the situation because we have tons of hospital beds. If you wait until you have a couple thousand beds you'll almost certainly overshoot your capacity. It's not a light switch you can turn on and off.

---

It's like you are just copying and pasting fear porn from March.

Nowhere in the US has overshot capacity.

And it won't come close to happening in Texas.

---

We did in NYC. And we can. That's what matters. It's like you're being deliberately ignorant of what's possible as if that solves the problem.

DFWTLR said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

DFWTLR said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

billydean05 said:

---

Look hospitalizations are increasing however not at a quick rate and not at anything to get even remotely worked up about. They have gone up from a low of 1500-1600 to a high of 2100 in a month. This will plateau here shortly. If it triples from these levels or quickly doubles in a week or less from current levels then could be cause to reevaluate.

---

Why would it plateau? Our actions lately are much more likely to accelerate things than have them plateau. I'm not saying we panic - I'm saying at this point we really need to expect this to double or triple in the next few weeks. Potentially worse.

---

Are we back to saying it'll get worse in 2 weeks? The protests started over 2 weeks ago, even Clay Jenkins is admitting the increase in cases is due to testing, nursing homes specifically.

Maybe I'm wrong but I seriously doubt we will have triple the hospitalizations from 2000 today, even if we did we would have over 9,000 beds left in Texas.

---

9,000 beds seems like a lot unless you have 100,000 (many of which are pre symptomatic) active infections who are all capable of getting another 2 people sick who are also then capable of getting 4 more people sick all in short order. Even if you have an optimistic 5% hospitalization rate you will be on the brink once that wave of people come to the hospital. Which is why you can't just casually ignore the situation because we have tons of hospital beds. If you wait until you have a couple thousand beds you'll almost certainly overshoot your capacity. It's not a light switch you can turn on and off.

---

To a degree you can turn on and off the occupied beds, end elective surgeries, set up emergency hospitals etc. We will never get there, EVER, but if we do go over capacity there are ways to mitigate.

---

Sure those things help. But the point is if the spread is exstensive enough, that kind of effort is a drop in the bucket. It also has serious consequences in itself, so let's make sure we don't get to that point because it's only bad from there.

how many people got infected in NYC?

2 million, over three months

do you see that as likely moving forward?

Comparing Texas and what may happen to us in the future to what already happened to NYC is ludicrous and is if you are being intentionally ignorant. Just a completely different lifestyle. NYC culture is not only the epicenter for disease spread, we were completely unprepared for it, and no one was trying to avoid it at all.

Texas is far less dense than NYC, does not have mass transit, has some level of existing exposure, and has more hospital capacity per capita.

Texas cannot be NYC.

And again, even in NYC no patient lacked for care. The USS Comfort was not needed, the Javits Center was not needed, and hospitals did not ran out of ventilators. At best you can say PPE was at a premium, but that is no longer a concern.

I'm not being deliberately ignorant of what's possible. I'm being entirely sensible based on how the course of the outbreak has progressed literally everywhere in the world.

I'm sorry you won't get your doomsday scenario.

cone said:

---

how many people got infected in NYC?

2 million, over three months

do you see that as likely moving forward?

---

Definitely possible, especially as we go back to the office, send kids to school, go to restaurants, and generally get fatigued about this COVID-19 stuff. If you don't prepare for that possibility, then we didn't learn from NYC... All I've advocated for is measured and calculated policy and individual actions. Apparantly that's too much for a lot of people here to accept. Just because it's a small number today doesn't mean it will be a small number in a month. Now I've seen plenty of head in sand posters on here that like to speak in absolutes when they have no control over thr situation. But frankly there are likely more people in Texas with the Coronavirus today than there were in Feb. In NYC. Don't underestimate it.

Keegan99 said:

---

Texas is far less dense than NYC, does not have mass transit, has some level of existing exposure, and has more hospital capacity per capita.

Texas cannot be NYC.

And again, even in NYC no patient lacked for care. The USS Comfort was not needed, the Javits Center was not needed, and hospitals did not ran out of ventilators. At best you can say PPE was at a premium, but that is no longer a concern.

I'm not being deliberately ignorant of what's possible. I'm being entirely sensible based on how the course of the outbreak has progressed literally everywhere in the world.

I'm sorry you won't get your doomsday scenario.

---

Texas still has schools, offices, and restaurants. Completely negligible existing exposure and has more virus today than NYC in February.

If you really think the only impacts on the system were that PPE was at a premium then you are completely tone deaf. You've only fed your cognitive biases with whatever bull**** fox news puts out to minimize what happened in NYC.

How sensible are you being about situations like Brazil, Russia, etc? Clearly those situations are deteriorating fast, especially Brazil. Russia allegedly stabilized it for a hot minute and has decided to give up all ground there.

Classic "I definitely want a doomsday scenario" strawman. You're the one that doesn't give a **** about 110,000 dead Americans- not me. Pretty pathetic comment when all I've said is we need to think about and be prepared those kinds of scenarios. Because it's the "that will never happen here" attitude that has left 110,000 and counting Americans dead when we could have acted in February. But I guess that's too much for your ego to handle.

Good grief, you aren't bringing any info to the table, you're pure emotion.

Texas, and almost every city outside of NYC, will be ok. There will be hotspots most likely in rural areas, but look what happened in Amarillo 30 days ago, 700 new cases per day and they didn't get overwhelmed and now they are down to single digits per day. This really isn't doomsday, although you'd love it to be.

Dazed and Confused said:

---

Found Texas data by Region. Houston is a strong driver in recent uptick in Hospitalization.

---

I can tell you for a fact the Rolling 7 days hospital for BCS is wrong. There has never been more than 17 in the hospitals at any one time and it shows 23 there.

Unless I am misunderstanding what rolling 7 days means.

I think the issue is your perceived negative outlook on every post. And not saying you're wrong, Texas could definitely get a lot worse before it gets better. It could also turn itself around. Hopefully you don't mean to be so doom and gloom, but that's how it comes off.

Example: the post I'm replying to now

Keegan99 said:

---

---

Too much day to day variance with only 10 data points, trying to a straight line fit. If this person presented this data to my organization he would not like his next review.

Still looking for more breakdown of what is causing the recent trend. Here is one looking by region.

DFWTLR said:

---

Good grief, you aren't bringing any info to the table, you're pure emotion.

Texas, and almost every city outside of NYC, will be ok. There will be hotspots most likely in rural areas, but look what happened in Amarillo 30 days ago, 700 new cases per day and they didn't get overwhelmed and now they are down to single digits per day. This really isn't doomsday, although you'd love it to be.

---

Amarillo had basically 10% of the town catch the virus due to a meat packing plant. They managed because they are a small city, and the town basically completely shut down. I know because I was there during that time. If 10% of Houston has this virus at a given time we will have a crisis, and yes that's possible, even if it's unlikely.

You're not bringing anything to the table except for sand for your head.

I've said multiple times we don't need to panic, but we seriously need to watch this trend and that yes it has the potential to be really bad so we need to be serious about it. Why? because the spread of the virus will dictate how the economy will perform between now and a vaccine, it will dictate how many people die, and it will dictate what level of "normal" we get over the coming months. Some how that's way too far for some of you to handle. I'm not recommending people be chained to their house, but practical things like encouraging wearing a mask in public, working from home, keeping social distance, getting takeout or delivery instead of eating at a restaurant.

But don't worry, you don't have to listen to me because you can throw a label on me. If the worst happens you'll still find a way to pretend you were right the whole time. Just like many of you have about the first wave of the virus "110,000 dead Americans in 4 months is not a big deal".

"It won't happen" -Texags board is not enough. Especially when people in health care and epidemiologists still are concerned. But you know better.

Anyways, this bull**** is taking too much time. I just want us to project outcomes and make rational calculated decisions. The real disasters come when you aren't prepared or proactive. So, you know it's entirely possible that if we ignore the threat things work out ok. But the truth is, there's a very real scenario where they don't. And if we don't respect that, we can all suffer depsite the outcome being preventable.

ExpressAg11 said:

---

I think the issue is your perceived negative outlook on every post. And not saying you're wrong, Texas could definitely get a lot worse before it gets better. It could also turn itself around. Hopefully you don't mean to be so doom and gloom, but that's how it comes off.

Example: the post I'm replying to now

---

I only talk about those things because at least 50% of the posts are everything will be fine. Everything is fine. We should just ignore it.

To me that's a little dishonest.

Everyone here is paying attention, people are just projecting data differently than you.

Quote:

---

Anyways, this bull**** is taking too much time. I just want us to project outcomes and make rational calculated decisions.

---

No, you don't.

No rational projected outcome would predict overwhelmed hospitals in Texas, which is something you have mentioned on multiple occasions.

But everything will be fine. Will more people die? Yes. Will the world keep spinning and a majority of people start living normal day to day lives again? Also yes.

No one is saying that everything is perfect and we shouldn't keep an eye on it. People should do what they can to prevent spread but the days of massive lockdowns are over.

KidDoc said:

---

Dazed and Confused said:

---

Found Texas data by Region. Houston is a strong driver in recent uptick in Hospitalization.

---

I can tell you for a fact the Rolling 7 days hospital for BCS is wrong. There has never been more than 17 in the hospitals at any one time and it shows 23 there.

Unless I am misunderstanding what rolling 7 days means.

---

The Table is by Region, not city.
So BCS probably includes other towns. I'll see if there is a breakdown of the Region so we can see the other towns.

I'll double check but I believe the BCS region consists of the following counties: Brazos Burleson Grimes Leon Madison Robertson Washington

what's the current Rt in Texas?