Just using those two early hard hit countries as examples, I look at their charts of new cases by day and see that have dropped to very low levels (compared to the peaks). Spain was running as high as 8000 new cases a day in late March or early April, and now around 600 a day. Italy peaked at 6000 new cases a day late March and now around 700 new cases per day.
If you just look at their total number of people who have had confirmed positive tests, it is a very low percentage of total population, around 0.6% for Spain with confirmed positive test results. Based on just that number, clearly no where close to enough people with immunity to stop or slow the spread of the disease.
I also think that Spain and Italy have had various lockdown policies changing as far back as late April. I admit I don't know the extent of those changes or functional impact. But I see the new cases remain very low and continue to fall.
SO, what do we attribute the big drop to? I see potentially:
In Texas, I've seen an increase in activity each week since the third week of April. People in my office building not wearing masks, people working the counter in a high traffic Fedex not wearing masks, a guy making burritos in Chipotle a couple days ago had no mask or gloves. Lots more people out and about. However, I don't see an increase in cases yet - is it just slow to occur and it starts in a few weeks?
I guess I am concerned it is seasonal and my hopes for school for my kids and attending sporting events for myself in the Fall will all fall apart when cases rise dramatically at that time. Optimistically I hope there are enough antibodies in enough people to slow things, or perhaps mutations are occurring in the virus making it harder to spread or less likely to sicken people.
THoughts?
If you just look at their total number of people who have had confirmed positive tests, it is a very low percentage of total population, around 0.6% for Spain with confirmed positive test results. Based on just that number, clearly no where close to enough people with immunity to stop or slow the spread of the disease.
I also think that Spain and Italy have had various lockdown policies changing as far back as late April. I admit I don't know the extent of those changes or functional impact. But I see the new cases remain very low and continue to fall.
SO, what do we attribute the big drop to? I see potentially:
- This virus has a seasonal behavior to it
- So many more people have actually had it and developed antibodies than just those with confirmed positive tests, that some degree of mass immunity has slowed the spread
- The lockdowns are very effective in stopping the spread and there really isn't much that has reopened or changed as far as those lockdown policies in Spain and Italy.
In Texas, I've seen an increase in activity each week since the third week of April. People in my office building not wearing masks, people working the counter in a high traffic Fedex not wearing masks, a guy making burritos in Chipotle a couple days ago had no mask or gloves. Lots more people out and about. However, I don't see an increase in cases yet - is it just slow to occur and it starts in a few weeks?
I guess I am concerned it is seasonal and my hopes for school for my kids and attending sporting events for myself in the Fall will all fall apart when cases rise dramatically at that time. Optimistically I hope there are enough antibodies in enough people to slow things, or perhaps mutations are occurring in the virus making it harder to spread or less likely to sicken people.
THoughts?