more evidence that IFR is likely ~1% depending on the age of the population and if resources are available to prevent deaths in the more likely to survive cohorts (i.e. not having to triage at increasingly younger ages)

curious if they are herd immune now

this does make it plausible that the IFR in NYC is closer to 0.8%, just based on demographics

That's an incredibly high infection rate in such a short period of time. I'm repeatedly astonished at how infectious this virus is.

If we can ever prove that an antibody test is in fact accurate, that will be pretty great information to have.

I really want to be optimistic about what they could be telling us, but I'm tempering it with a healthy dose of caution so far. We've had two guys who would likely know on this forum tell us that their confidence level is low so far.

if it's that level of prevalence than the false positives stop being so distorting so long as they aren't ridiculous to begin with

Wouldn't that be near herd immunity levels?

Herd immunity is helpful slowing the spread still old people going to large gatherings would be unwise

It really depends on the R0.

The R0 is still a relative unknown.

We need to figure out why children are so resistant to getting this disease.

They wash their hands and don't touch their face.

hph6203 said:

---

They wash their hands and don't touch their face.

---

children might factor into the herd immunity equation without having to have contracted ?
adjust math to project that for NYC etc

Joe Exotic said:

---

Wouldn't that be near herd immunity levels?

---

I don't know... I have seen it mentioned that herd immunity could be near 60%, but I would think with some of the number of infections that are being detected that the R0 is much higher than the input for those calculations.

Yes its dependent on the R0. The R0 could swing it from as low to 60% to as high as 90%.

4-5 months. It's been it Italy most likely since December

The percent of people under 10 has to be at least 10% of the population. That means close to 70% are immune or resistant to Covid. I would be tempted to open things back up and let it spread to the point of herd immunity. They might recover economically a lot faster as they won't be dealing with it forever like we will.