The problem with the tiered approach by county is people can't be responsible. If my county is shut down but the county next to me isn't because it is a hot spot, all of the people who think the rules dont apply to them are going to hop in the car.
Thoughts on a Tiered Approach to "Re-Opening"
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I agree, and I don't know exactly how to address that. But making the entire State react to what happens in Dallas County also isn't a great approach. Going to have to break it down on some level.slacker00 said:
The problem with the tiered approach by county is people can't be responsible. If my county is shut down but the county next to me isn't because it is a hot spot, all of the people who think the rules dont apply to them are going to hop in the car.
Which is why I think it's abundantly clear that the most important variable is active cases of the virus in America. Everything from the economy, to hospitalizations, to deaths is a function of that number. The consequences of opening things back up too early could only exacerbate the issue.
Can we adjust your system to hospitalization rates and capacity?Player To Be Named Later said:And I think that's one of the things about this that I disagree with. It's pretty mind boggling that a country such as ours didn't have enough PPE for places to stay open. Having to cancel elective procedures because we didn't want to burn through the PPE necessary is pretty ridiculous and should be something we really learn from this mess.barnyard1996 said:Its wasnt about "cases" in the beginning. it was about "hospitalization rates".Player To Be Named Later said:It isn't necessarily "Conduct Grade". Not sure why you can't really see that. It would depend largely on whether cases began to drastically climb in each area. Maybe that depends on how we act, maybe it doesn't. But I think if people could carry about their lives with at least some common sense and not rush back to acting like nothing is going on, we would be able to avoid that situation.barnyard1996 said:
Misled from the start with terrible projections by "smart" people who love "discussions". Now OP suggests we get our country back based on a conduct grade.
WTF?
We all want, or should want, the same two things..... for businesses to be open and people working and to be as safe as we can while accomplishing that.
The irony, We have laid off thousands of healthcare workers.
I personally have had appointments canceled by specialists because they aren't seeing patients in office. Kudos to Reveille for still keeping his office open and having some ability to think outside the box with how he is running his practice in order to stay open.
Hopefully one of our major take aways here is for facilities to keep more of a stock of PPE and also to not source them from freaking China.
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Wouldn't necessarily be opposed to that myself. I mean, if a specific county is in large % younger and healthier than others, and aren't going to the hospital, then they may not need the same regulations as an older county.
In that scenario, neighboring counties that don't have the same demographic should hope that they don't have an influx of carriers coming in and spreading it in their county
In that scenario, neighboring counties that don't have the same demographic should hope that they don't have an influx of carriers coming in and spreading it in their county
barnyard1996 said:Can we adjust your system to hospitalization rates and capacity?Player To Be Named Later said:And I think that's one of the things about this that I disagree with. It's pretty mind boggling that a country such as ours didn't have enough PPE for places to stay open. Having to cancel elective procedures because we didn't want to burn through the PPE necessary is pretty ridiculous and should be something we really learn from this mess.barnyard1996 said:Its wasnt about "cases" in the beginning. it was about "hospitalization rates".Player To Be Named Later said:It isn't necessarily "Conduct Grade". Not sure why you can't really see that. It would depend largely on whether cases began to drastically climb in each area. Maybe that depends on how we act, maybe it doesn't. But I think if people could carry about their lives with at least some common sense and not rush back to acting like nothing is going on, we would be able to avoid that situation.barnyard1996 said:
Misled from the start with terrible projections by "smart" people who love "discussions". Now OP suggests we get our country back based on a conduct grade.
WTF?
We all want, or should want, the same two things..... for businesses to be open and people working and to be as safe as we can while accomplishing that.
The irony, We have laid off thousands of healthcare workers.
I personally have had appointments canceled by specialists because they aren't seeing patients in office. Kudos to Reveille for still keeping his office open and having some ability to think outside the box with how he is running his practice in order to stay open.
Hopefully one of our major take aways here is for facilities to keep more of a stock of PPE and also to not source them from freaking China.
I don't think that's realistic when viruses are spreading exponentially and people are asymptomatic carriers for days before they have symptoms. You have to aggressively shut down the spread of the virus or you'll be overcapacity by a huge margin before we know it. That doesn't mean we have to shut things down for cases in the future, I just think focusing on hospital capacity impossible to execute.
Fair point. Could we focus on protecting those most susceptible to hospitalization? Spitballing here.
Again, the premise of the shutdown was hospital capacity. Can we get back to that discussion somehow?
Again, the premise of the shutdown was hospital capacity. Can we get back to that discussion somehow?
If you did it on a county by county basis, it would have to be like child support decrees and require the same level of "all clear" from each county and all of its contiguous counties.
I.e. if Dallas is still a hotbed, Collin county has to stay locked down.
I.e. if Dallas is still a hotbed, Collin county has to stay locked down.
Gotta love predictions.Jack Boyett said:
The strictness came because we were all shocked at what the models predicted.
Interesting idea. I think you could use a dynamic tiered system that raises/lowers lock-down status based on relative closeness to the 'hot' counties. Like if Dallas is a level 10 hotbed maybe Tarrant, Denton, Collin, etc are placed on a Level 8 automatically, then Hood, Parker, Wise Kaufman, Ellis counties are placed on a 6 and so forth on a geographic sliding scale. And it works the other way as well; if Wise county becomes a level 10 hotbed, Dallas is automatically placed on level 6 status.Duncan Idaho said:
If you did it on a county by county basis, it would have to be like child support decrees and require the same level of "all clear" from each county and all of its contiguous counties.
I.e. if Dallas is still a hotbed, Collin county has to stay locked down.
But this seems way to complex for people, businesses schools to work around on a day to day basis, let alone monthly basis which is why overarching (overreaching?) rules are simply more functional, understandable and enforceable.
Jack Boyett said:That's my biggest gripe. The original goal was to prevent the overrun of the hospitals. That worked and I can live with that goal. But it morphed so fast into save every life which means this can never end.barnyard1996 said:Anytime,Player To Be Named Later said:
Well, since you don't feel like giving a real thought on how we should proceed, folks will be left to just guess. But thanks for the drive-by "insight"
Edit: will add one item to consideration: Economic devastation to the county. Number of layoffs, etc.
Also, The idea on the shutdown was to not overrun the healthcare system. We got away from that narrative and...
"I cant believe this is where we are at"
I don't think anyone is thinking "save every life".
I think the disconnect is that you have a virus with an insane spread rate, due to various features - mostly the amount of asymptomatic spread, with a HUGE lag time between infection and symptoms even when they do finally appear.....and people continuously use a current day view of the hospitals to decide how they believe things should be run....
I agree we can't stay locked down long term and need to begin transitioning with a plan, but people that say things like "if your area isn't a hotspot" need to realize that you're trying to make a prediction about something that you won't know for 2 weeks....NYC has been freaking out for weeks now and just finally had their first net negative day regarding folks coming into the hospitals vs people leaving....they went into full on lockdown and it still took that long to actually get to the other side of things....
All that to say that I agree we need to open things up, but people also have to realize that if you wait for your area to start showing issues before you take any actions, you're going to be in bad shape - especially in some of the more rural areas.
Disclaimer: I don't know as much as everyone else on here.
In Iowa I think our governor has come up with a good model, we have no shelter in place order but she has systematically shut down non-existential businesses as the spread warranted. She had the state divided into 5 regions to manage personal and supplies to handle the outbreaks and is using the Iowa National Guard to help move supplies around to needed areas. Each of these areas is rated on a 1 to 10 scale (using metrics developed with the CDC and the Iowa Public Health Dept) with 1 being the low end and a 10 being the high end which would trigger a shelter in place order for that region. I attached what today's map looks like, which comes from the state's website where there is a plethora of information. Our governor has been extremely transparent during this whole outbreak and I for one appreciate that
.
As you can see Iowa has 2 regions that are close to the "Shelter in Place" order, but that could change as we have seen regions actually go down in levels of severity. All this to say maybe this is a model that could be used in other states as well.
In Iowa I think our governor has come up with a good model, we have no shelter in place order but she has systematically shut down non-existential businesses as the spread warranted. She had the state divided into 5 regions to manage personal and supplies to handle the outbreaks and is using the Iowa National Guard to help move supplies around to needed areas. Each of these areas is rated on a 1 to 10 scale (using metrics developed with the CDC and the Iowa Public Health Dept) with 1 being the low end and a 10 being the high end which would trigger a shelter in place order for that region. I attached what today's map looks like, which comes from the state's website where there is a plethora of information. Our governor has been extremely transparent during this whole outbreak and I for one appreciate that
.
As you can see Iowa has 2 regions that are close to the "Shelter in Place" order, but that could change as we have seen regions actually go down in levels of severity. All this to say maybe this is a model that could be used in other states as well.
Well Hell, I tried to include a screen shot but it doesn't look like it posted. Here is the link to the Iowa government web page.
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/
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I feel your technological pain
It will almost certainly be tiered approach gradually reopening stuff over a long period of time, the safest things first with probably some social distancing restrictions (including perhaps mandatory in some areas/places to wear masks), and anything involving huge crowds like concerts/sporting events with fans/etc. coming last - and those types of things maybe not even until next year. Opening Borders/International Travel will also presumably be really dicey for quite awhile.
They don't seem to really have any other choice, they can't just immediately go back to the world that existed in early March 2020. That world doesn't exist any more. Instead, there will be a 'new normal' that they will try to get to that allows functioning (albeit hobbled) economies, that may not get back to closely resembling the 'old normal' until a Vaccine comes out.
They don't seem to really have any other choice, they can't just immediately go back to the world that existed in early March 2020. That world doesn't exist any more. Instead, there will be a 'new normal' that they will try to get to that allows functioning (albeit hobbled) economies, that may not get back to closely resembling the 'old normal' until a Vaccine comes out.
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Another factor we need to consider when we think about number of cases as they affect our phasing in of opening is just how sorry our testing numbers are currently.
With Texas currently 48th in testing, there just is really no way for us to speak to what our reality truly is. That needs to be a top priority so we can make accurate decisions.
With Texas currently 48th in testing, there just is really no way for us to speak to what our reality truly is. That needs to be a top priority so we can make accurate decisions.
So my thoughts are open everything up with social distancing and face coverings in public places. Restaurants can open but they are going to have to come up with plans to keep people separated. We as free thinking individuals can chose to go out or not go out.
Exceptions to that are Nursing Homes, retirement centers, adult daycare etc... anywhere there are groups of older people. They need to have strict policies to prevent spread as best as possible, think clean room.
Reasons I believe we are ready are the statics are not bearing out the doom and gloom of earlier predictions. We are on track for peak use of hospitals to be less than 25% of capacity. We are on track for deaths to be less than 3000, regular flu gets between 8-11 thousand a year in Texas. The current system can handle it based on the data we now have.
I have more faith in our people than I guess you do, I just do not see everyone running around like chickens with their heads cut off yelling Freedom while sneezing on everyone. Will there be a few idiots, probably, but I think the vast majority are going to be cautious for a very long time.
This is just my opinion
Exceptions to that are Nursing Homes, retirement centers, adult daycare etc... anywhere there are groups of older people. They need to have strict policies to prevent spread as best as possible, think clean room.
Reasons I believe we are ready are the statics are not bearing out the doom and gloom of earlier predictions. We are on track for peak use of hospitals to be less than 25% of capacity. We are on track for deaths to be less than 3000, regular flu gets between 8-11 thousand a year in Texas. The current system can handle it based on the data we now have.
I have more faith in our people than I guess you do, I just do not see everyone running around like chickens with their heads cut off yelling Freedom while sneezing on everyone. Will there be a few idiots, probably, but I think the vast majority are going to be cautious for a very long time.
This is just my opinion
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Like I said, I can only speak to my specific area. And 18yrs on patrol has not led me to have the utmost of faith in how people are going to behave here. Sure, I'm a little jaded. That long of dealing with some of the most insanely dumb things you can ever dream up will do that to you.
That's why this will be better when broken down by area. I'm sure West Texas doesn't need to have the same precautions as D/FW..... not that I'd imagine they're really following any right now anyway.
That's why this will be better when broken down by area. I'm sure West Texas doesn't need to have the same precautions as D/FW..... not that I'd imagine they're really following any right now anyway.
given how effective Texas looks from the outside in terms of statistics, if there's overlapping resources between testing and a large random antibody testing sample within the state, i hope the focus is on the latter.Player To Be Named Later said:
Another factor we need to consider when we think about number of cases as they affect our phasing in of opening is just how sorry our testing numbers are currently.
With Texas currently 48th in testing, there just is really no way for us to speak to what our reality truly is. That needs to be a top priority so we can make accurate decisions.
that will provide more info than just about anything at this point, IMO.
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
and little towns all around this land...
Many years ago, used to regularly play pickup hoops with a retired cop in Pittsburgh who had spent a lot of years on the street. Nice guy once he got to know you and was comfortable with you. But by default seemed to assume anybody new that he met was a scumbag or idiot until proven otherwise.Player To Be Named Later said:
Like I said, I can only speak to my specific area. And 18yrs on patrol has not led me to have the utmost of faith in how people are going to behave here. Sure, I'm a little jaded. That long of dealing with some of the most insanely dumb things you can ever dream up will do that to you.
That's why this will be better when broken down by area. I'm sure West Texas doesn't need to have the same precautions as D/FW..... not that I'd imagine they're really following any right now anyway.
I always figured that because cops have to regularly interact with the lower elements of society, that can certainly make some of them pretty jaded.
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Yeah, it sucks. The saying "I used to be a people person, then people ruined it" is pretty accurate.
I try not to be, but it's hard to break. And Pittsburgh...... yeah, I'd bet he was jaded as hell. I admittedly tend to think worst case scenario a lot, but I've been proven right a lot.... so...
I try not to be, but it's hard to break. And Pittsburgh...... yeah, I'd bet he was jaded as hell. I admittedly tend to think worst case scenario a lot, but I've been proven right a lot.... so...
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I have seen ideas like this kicked around and wondering what thoughts are on this. I don't know exactly how they would be broken down, but something like:
Tier 0 - Shelter in Place rules, much like we are currently
Tier 1 - Cases / Deaths decreasing in your county, more restrictions lifted
Progressing to Tier 4 or so, Fully opened.
The status in a county would be continuously monitored and a County can go up or down the Tier Status based on current situation in that county. This would leave a lot of the responsibility on us as citizens to behave responsibly in order to gradually re-open everything.
Want to be a "Murrica, but muh rights" type and refuse to follow basic social distancing, wear a mask, etc and see cases climb in your county? Great, you just dipped back to Tier 0 and SIP. Act responsibly as a county and see cases decline, awesome, move up a Tier and see more places opening up. IMO, how responsibly we act to curb cases should be rewarded in our particular County. I use counties only because I don't think it's feasible to break it down by municipality, etc. Also is better than every rural county being subjected to the situation going on in Dallas, Harris, Bexar, etc.
I agree with general principle with one big caveat:
The role of the fed gov should be to issue guidelines for the states and counties to follow.
It should be based on metrics related to hospital capacity, infection rates, etc. The default should be loosening restrictions which then tighten if/when the metrics become unfavorable.
Things like mass gatherings will need to be prohibited for now.
Enforcement should be left to the state, except for things like international and interstate travel. Fed gov could tie in inducements or penalties related to aid to states which aren't complying, but the states should have the ultimate say, and measures within the state should vary depending upon the county.
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Can't argue with most of that. I'm just not knowledgeable myself of what metrics are safe/best to use as far as infection rate, etc. That's for people well above my pay grade to figure out.
Sounds like the Iowa plan makes sense setting up regions for the state and tracking hot spots to shift medical supplies and staff where needed in cases of spikes. In Texas, I think that each county should have a plan in place for the orderly distribution of excess Covid victims to nearby hospitals or make shift hospital quarters and the local state guardsmen can help move medical supplies etc into each county as needed if and when spikes occur. That task accomplished, let most counties go back to fairly normal operating/living conditions.
You may think ill of the general populace but this lockdown which has ruined lives as well. The pols keep changing re-open dates pushing them back, kicking the can down the road. I think people will give the benefit the doubt until May 1. If it gets pushed back again then I think push back will start. It is getting to the point where people have little to lose anymore.Player To Be Named Later said:
Yeah, it sucks. The saying "I used to be a people person, then people ruined it" is pretty accurate.
I try not to be, but it's hard to break. And Pittsburgh...... yeah, I'd bet he was jaded as hell. I admittedly tend to think worst case scenario a lot, but I've been proven right a lot.... so...
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I'm all for opening things, but rather see it done in an intelligent manner.
Like I've mentioned before, if you open it without some foresight and thought, you run a solid risk of blowing cases open again and then you're REALLY going to be screwed because the free market will close things for you, without the government. Anyone wanting things open should really hope it's done right. Do it wrong and it's going to be really hard to justify doing it again and people are going to get gunshy.
Getting people back into businesses will be much harder a 3rd time than the 2nd. The priority is to do it right, not just do it.
And I'm not just being cavalier about other people's money. A lot of us work 2nd and 3rd side jobs. Virtually all of those are closed right now. I personally work 2 side jobs that are not open right now and I'm losing $$$ each month. Our city is also talking about temporary pay cuts for all employees, including Public Safety. So, I get it, it sucks. But that doesn't mean we rush in with no thought out plan, just to do it.
Like I've mentioned before, if you open it without some foresight and thought, you run a solid risk of blowing cases open again and then you're REALLY going to be screwed because the free market will close things for you, without the government. Anyone wanting things open should really hope it's done right. Do it wrong and it's going to be really hard to justify doing it again and people are going to get gunshy.
Getting people back into businesses will be much harder a 3rd time than the 2nd. The priority is to do it right, not just do it.
And I'm not just being cavalier about other people's money. A lot of us work 2nd and 3rd side jobs. Virtually all of those are closed right now. I personally work 2 side jobs that are not open right now and I'm losing $$$ each month. Our city is also talking about temporary pay cuts for all employees, including Public Safety. So, I get it, it sucks. But that doesn't mean we rush in with no thought out plan, just to do it.
Getting people back into businesses will be much harder a 3rd time than the 2nd.
Good point.
Good point.
If the hospitals aren't overrun, shutting down the economy a 2nd and 3rd time is going to be much harder to do.
Well, true....I can't imagine a 2nd wave of economic chaos, don't want to even think about that. Gov't can' just keep giving money away (well, not to this level at least).
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Agreed. My point is that if we screw this up on how we do it, and DO see a huge wave of cases, it's going to really make consumers gunshy. And businesses will have a harder time getting people out than they would if we do this in a prudent manner.
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Aust Ag said:
Well, true....I can't imagine a 2nd wave of economic chaos, don't want to even think about that. Gov't can' just keep giving money away (well, not to this level at least).
If the economy shuts down because consumers say "screw this, I'm mostly staying home" not because they are mandated to closed, they may not see much Govt $ the 2nd time around.
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Can i have your login?
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I don't pay them a dime and I was able to read it all....
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