Wait, you're telling me that you didn't know the numbers would go up as stay home orders are lifted (see below)? Of course they will go up - and they will go up a lot more. But, despite the efforts of 2 Weekers to tell us otherwise, the point of the stay home order was to give the hospitals time to prepare. It was never the point to outlast the virus or wait for a vaccine. People are more that welcome to stay home all they want, just don't make me a criminal because I want to work and provide for my family.

Also, I find it humorous that people are citing that numbers are going up, when the stay home order HASN'T EVEN BEEN LIFTED UNTIL TODAY. Even if the shortest incubation period was 3 days, we wouldn't see the effects of the lift until this coming Monday.

The poster did not say the numbers were up because the stay at home order was lifted. He said the numbers were up.

queso1 said:

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Wait, you're telling me that you didn't know the numbers would go up as stay home orders are lifted (see below)? Of course they will go up - and they will go up a lot more. But, despite the efforts of 2 Weekers to tell us otherwise, the point of the stay home order was to give the hospitals time to prepare. It was never the point to outlast the virus or wait for a vaccine. People are more that welcome to stay home all they want, just don't make me a criminal because I want to work and provide for my family.

Also, I find it humorous that people are citing that numbers are going up, when the stay home order HASN'T EVEN BEEN LIFTED UNTIL TODAY. Even if the shortest incubation period was 3 days, we wouldn't see the effects of the lift until this coming Monday.

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Yeah, I'm not sure what the point of any of those statements are.

I'm simply saying that we should probably stop calling this thing "over" when we are still seeing rising daily death totals.

I didn't say we should lock down, or that I expected death totals to stop immediately or any of the points you seem to be going after.

Enjoy your day.

queso1 said:

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Wait, you're telling me that you didn't know the numbers would go up as stay home orders are lifted (see below)? Of course they will go up - and they will go up a lot more. But, despite the efforts of 2 Weekers to tell us otherwise, the point of the stay home order was to give the hospitals time to prepare. It was never the point to outlast the virus or wait for a vaccine. People are more that welcome to stay home all they want, just don't make me a criminal because I want to work and provide for my family.

Also, I find it humorous that people are citing that numbers are going up, when the stay home order HASN'T EVEN BEEN LIFTED UNTIL TODAY. Even if the shortest incubation period was 3 days, we wouldn't see the effects of the lift until this coming Monday.

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And just for clarification - you are validating the victory laps by pointing out that our highest death totals reflect the result of a period under which we have been pretty aggressively isolated.....

That seems quite contrary to the tone of your message....it'd be like celebrating a company who's stocks are still going down and pointing out (during your celebration) that they're about to announce they missed earnings....

Who said this was over? This isn't over by a long shot. The virus will be killing people for quite a long time. I was merely remarking that numbers are going to go up. They were expected to go up. But, people (perhaps not you) are already blaming the lift of the stay home order for the numbers going up - and, that's just not possible.

Edit: I believe the point of the other poster's remark was that it's been 3 weeks and the possibility that we will be New York in 2 weeks has passed. The reason I blended the two issues is because people are using the "wait 2 weeks" or "Texas will be New York in 2 weeks" bit to extend the stay at home order.

So if the incubation period is 14 days then we will not see the true effect of the lift of the stay at home order until around May 15th which coincides with the date Abbott plans to announce Phase II. How do you figure he will legitimately be ready to announce we are good to go to the next phase if the data from the first phase isn't available yet? Seems like we should stay at one phase for a minimum of a month until we move to the next phase.

I think he sees that even if we have a significant spike in infections we still won't overwhelm the hospitals which is the only thing that matters.

Joe Exotic said:

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I think he sees that even if we have a significant spike in infections we still won't overwhelm the hospitals which is the only thing that matters.

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That seems like a pretty big gamble considering that once you identify the spike rises to that danger level of overrunning the hospitals and you take action you will actually be 2 weeks behind and unable to stop the issue.

Joe Exotic said:

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I think he sees that even if we have a significant spike in infections we still won't overwhelm the hospitals which is the only thing that matters.

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Shouldn't be all that matters. Doing too much, too fast can, in their own ways, exacerbate and lengthen the economic pain.

He might as well go to Phase 2 today if he's predetermined Texas will go to Phase 2 even if Texas "spikes."

I don't see the point in waiting if hospitalization is the only negative factor, and you've already determined it won't be a problem.

I don't think we are wrong to open things up based on the numbers in Texas but I would just hope we use extreme caution before we move to the next several phases.

TheAngelFlight said:

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Joe Exotic said:

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I think he sees that even if we have a significant spike in infections we still won't overwhelm the hospitals which is the only thing that matters.

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Shouldn't be all that matters. Doing too much, too fast can, in their own ways, exacerbate and lengthen the economic pain.

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It's all that matters because that's what was sold to us in "flattening the curve". Anything else is moving the goalposts.

Joe Exotic said:

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TheAngelFlight said:

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Joe Exotic said:

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I think he sees that even if we have a significant spike in infections we still won't overwhelm the hospitals which is the only thing that matters.

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Shouldn't be all that matters. Doing too much, too fast can, in their own ways, exacerbate and lengthen the economic pain.

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It's all that matters because that's what was sold to us in "flattening the curve". Anything else is moving the goalposts.

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I wouldn't agree about moving the goal posts, as from the very beginning there was plenty of discussion about other factors in effectively combating the disease and sustaining the economy. The above is just my opinion, and I've certainly been consistent.

However, is that a large factor? Yes, agreed. The primary public selling point on social distancing? Certainly, agreed.


Besides, sometimes moving the goal posts from the front to the back of end zone turns out to be a good idea.

It is not raw new cases that matters for the phasing. It is a decline in the number of positive cases by percentage to tests. The fact that numbers have stayed pretty flat with increasing testing is a huge positive.

Our testing isn't mature enough for that metric to matter.

sorry, graphic didnt work

It's a gamble but we can't stay locked down forever - especially with hospital capacity looking A++.

Herman99 said:

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So if the incubation period is 14 days then we will not see the true effect of the lift of the stay at home order until around May 15th which coincides with the date Abbott plans to announce Phase II. How do you figure he will legitimately be ready to announce we are good to go to the next phase if the data from the first phase isn't available yet? Seems like we should stay at one phase for a minimum of a month until we move to the next phase.

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Really? Everything I've heard says the incubation period is from 3-14 days and the average is 5 days. But to say that we are immediately going to see the effect of slowly opening things back up in 2 weeks is a bit naive. There just aren't enough cases around right now to see the numbers jump up that quickly. But we should expect that the number of cases will rise with less mitigation. But if we do this carefully maybe we can prevent an exponential rise.

TheAngelFlight said:

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The poster did not say the numbers were up because the stay at home order was lifted. He said the numbers were up.

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That's good the number is up it means we are closer to reaching herd immunity!

PJYoung said:

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It's a gamble but we can't stay locked down forever - especially with hospital capacity looking A++.

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true - we would have much more people thinking logically if the government would furlough its workers not in the office/ on site. And quit sending people $1200 checks for doing nothing.

On the subject of herd immunity...confirmed cases in Texas make up 0.1% of the population. Herd immunity requires 60-80% of a population to be immune.

For the sake of arguing you can cherry pick any number you want how many more asymptomatic cases there may be than those confirmed (20x, 50x, 80x I've all been published in different reports) - doesn't really matter...you need 600x today's numbers to begin sniffing herd immunity.

cle96 said:

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Right here. High fever and cough at the end of February. Tested negative for flu. I haven't run a high fever in at least five years, was very odd.

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My cadet had same over presidents day weekend. Tested negative for flu.

Fitch said:

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On the subject of herd immunity...confirmed cases in Texas make up 0.1% of the population. Herd immunity requires 60-80% of a population to be immune.

For the sake of arguing you can cherry pick any number you want how many more asymptomatic cases there may be than those confirmed (20x, 50x, 80x I've all been published in different reports) - doesn't really matter...you need 600x today's numbers to begin sniffing herd immunity.

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Then let's get it over with already.

Sure thing. It'll take about two to four years, though.

Herman99 said:

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So if the incubation period is 14 days then we will not see the true effect of the lift of the stay at home order until around May 15th which coincides with the date Abbott plans to announce Phase II. How do you figure he will legitimately be ready to announce we are good to go to the next phase if the data from the first phase isn't available yet? Seems like we should stay at one phase for a minimum of a month until we move to the next phase.

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14 days is the high end of the incubation period. From what I understand, most will start showing symptoms well before that.

BowSowy said:

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Herman99 said:

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So if the incubation period is 14 days then we will not see the true effect of the lift of the stay at home order until around May 15th which coincides with the date Abbott plans to announce Phase II. How do you figure he will legitimately be ready to announce we are good to go to the next phase if the data from the first phase isn't available yet? Seems like we should stay at one phase for a minimum of a month until we move to the next phase.

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14 days is the high end of the incubation period. From what I understand, most will start showing symptoms well before that.

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Median is 5.1

Whether it goes up or not, the people willing to go back to work have a constitutional right to do so. We have to put food on the table and a roof over our heads. PERIOD

You cannot hide at home from this virus. Do your best to stay safe. The old, scared, and weak need to stay home. You do not get to punish the people that want and need desperately to go back to work.

Another metric that never gets looked at, is our actual death rate going up or are all deaths considered Chinese Virus now? I will try to find our normal death rate per day and compare to now. I am sure it is a little higher but lets see about that.