TXAggie2011 said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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bay fan said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Also if it gets as bad as projected people won't leave their house even if the govt would allow it. Regular economic activity is going to stop either way.

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That's the truth.

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No it's not

The opposite will happen

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I know plenty of folks who were starting to hunker down before the waterfall of government announcements over the past 3 or so days.

And having talked with some of them, much of it was totally based on health concerns (rather than "we're about to get shutdown, I'm locking the bunker before the madness").

If the serious health concerns are proven true, plenty of folks will absolutely be slow and timid getting back to normal.

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And plenty of people are going to get tired of being forced to stay inside while their businesses, jobs, and lives go down the crapper

They'll come out

Captain Pablo said:

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And plenty of people are going to get tired of being forced to stay inside while their businesses, jobs, and lives go down the crapper

They'll come out

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There isn't a need for 100% compliance for the social distancing to be effective. Not everything is being shut down anyway. Many of the comments throughout this thread make it sound like it's already been months, when in reality it's been about a week of significant closures. For many businesses, it's an alteration of standard practice, and not complete closure anyway.

What anyone says regarding the "what if's" about doing nothing vs the economic impact of what's currently going on are pure speculation. The doom and gloom economic forecasts and the "never recover" talk is just as much baseless hyperbole and spreading of false panic as the "millions of dead" talk.

Two month shut-in?!?

Domestic violence and rioting will kill more than COVID.

Captain Pablo said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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bay fan said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Also if it gets as bad as projected people won't leave their house even if the govt would allow it. Regular economic activity is going to stop either way.

---

That's the truth.

---

No it's not

The opposite will happen

---

I know plenty of folks who were starting to hunker down before the waterfall of government announcements over the past 3 or so days.

And having talked with some of them, much of it was totally based on health concerns (rather than "we're about to get shutdown, I'm locking the bunker before the madness").

If the serious health concerns are proven true, plenty of folks will absolutely be slow and timid getting back to normal.

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And plenty of people are going to get tired of being forced to stay inside while their businesses, jobs, and lives go down the crapper

They'll come out

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Some will. Sure. I'm just saying I don't think the economy is going to take off.

And trust me. I want it to take off and life to be back to normal more than you can imagine. My wedding is scheduled for May 23. My world is a wreck right now.

TXAggie2011 said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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bay fan said:

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Sq 17 said:

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KHi Also if it gets as bad as projected people won't leave their house even if the govt would allow it. Regular economic activity is going to stop either way.

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That's the truth.

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No it's not

The opposite will happen

---

I know plenty of folks who were starting to hunker down before the waterfall of government announcements over the past 3 or so days.

And having talked with some of them, much of it was totally based on health concerns (rather than "we're about to get shutdown, I'm locking the bunker before the madness").

If the serious health concerns are proven true, plenty of folks will absolutely be slow and timid getting back to normal.

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And plenty of people are going to get tired of being forced to stay inside while their businesses, jobs, and lives go down the crapper

They'll come out

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Some will. Sure. I'm just saying I don't think the economy is going to take off.

And trust me. I want it to take off and life to be back to normal more than you can imagine. My wedding is scheduled for May 23. My world is a wreck right now.

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Just a matter of perspective. You have someone you love and want to marry. That's way more important then the party. That can happen in due time. Stop and reflect on the good fortune of being in love with lots to look forward to, even if it's all not in May! Congrats 2011.

TXAggie2011 said:

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And trust me. I want it to take off and life to be back to normal more than you can imagine. My wedding is scheduled for May 23. My world is a wreck right now.

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Sorry to hear that.

We have friends in a similar situation. They opted for a super small (just them plus parents) wedding now, and are planning a larger "celebration" once this is all over. Sucks that they don't get their dream wedding the way they'd planned, but they felt like this was the best choice for them.

I hope everything works out for you and your fiancee.

Communities should bite the bullet now and lockdown for three weeks. Two weeks is too short once you consider an infected person will not show symptoms for up to 7 days and then have a disease state for up to an additional 10-14 (although viral shedding stops some midway through). A harsh protocol now will mean we can get things up and running again (slowly) starting in May. The SEC finally canceling all spring sports, universities officially moving online for the rest of the semester and graduations canceled only confirms we are headed for this extended timeline instead of the original two weeks.

Also the idea that we should stagger these isolations is ludicrous...will only prolong our situation and restart infections in places that had gone through their original isolation.

S Korea didnt lockdown and they have it under the best control.

Tresting and quarantine of positive hits are more effective.

NASAg03 said:

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S Korea didnt lockdown and they have it under the best control.

Tresting and quarantine of positive hits are more effective.

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That's too common sensical. Only radical actions control hysteria. South Korea has societal discipline and we do not.

MaroonStain said:

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NASAg03 said:

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S Korea didnt lockdown and they have it under the best control.

Tresting and quarantine of positive hits are more effective.

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That's too common sensical. Only radical actions control hysteria. South Korea has societal discipline and we do not.

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Every public health official in the US has been shouting for weeks that we needed to test, test, and test some more. But the tests didn't happen. South Korea, as of yesterday, had performed like 10x as many tests as the US had.

South Korea's approach has hardly been un-intrusive. Their government was and is downloading people's mobile phone and credit card histories and tracking people with a social media app.

***And to be clear about the quarantine policy in South Korea. They didn't just quarantine positive hits. If you come within 6 feet of a positive test, you're on a two week quarantine.

TXAggie2011 said:

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MaroonStain said:

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NASAg03 said:

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S Korea didnt lockdown and they have it under the best control.

Tresting and quarantine of positive hits are more effective.

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That's too common sensical. Only radical actions control hysteria. South Korea has societal discipline and we do not.

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Every public health official in the US has been shouting for weeks that we needed to test, test, and test some more. But the tests didn't happen. South Korea, as of yesterday, had performed like 10x as many tests as the US had.

South Korea's approach has hardly been un-intrusive. Their government was and is downloading people's mobile phone and credit card histories and tracking people with a social media app.

***And to be clear about the quarantine policy in South Korea. They didn't just quarantine positive hits. If you come within 6 feet of a positive test, you're on a two week quarantine.

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Using technology to track contagions. Genius. And far less intrusive or obstructive than shelter in place or shutting down entire industries. Shut down the sick people or those possibly infected, rather than everyone.

Now they are hinting at 18 month lifestyle changes here in the US to control this. WTF.

Quote:

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Just a matter of perspective. You have someone you love and want to marry. That's way more important then the party. That can happen in due time. Stop and reflect on the good fortune of being in love with lots to look forward to, even if it's all not in May! Congrats 2011.

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Quote:

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Sorry to hear that.

We have friends in a similar situation. They opted for a super small (just them plus parents) wedding now, and are planning a larger "celebration" once this is all over. Sucks that they don't get their dream wedding the way they'd planned, but they felt like this was the best choice for them.

I hope everything works out for you and your fiancee.

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Thanks, and thanks.

Everything will work out. The party will happen at one point or another. The biggest practical letdown is the possibility of being married in a church that won't let in most of the people we want to see when we walk down the aisle.

Most of all, I want this to be a joyous, if inevitably stressful, period for the bride. And its just going to be tough for her as we work through the decisions that need to be made.

But at the end the day, we'll be married that's really all that matters.

Quote:

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Using technology to track contagions. Genius. And far less intrusive or obstructive than shelter in place or shutting down entire industries. Shut down the sick people or those possibly infected, rather than everyone.

Now they are hinting at 18 month lifestyle changes here in the US to control this. WTF.

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Again, they got out in front with the testing. I didn't say which approach was more or less intrusive.

Its weird alternating between the discussion about my wedding and this exchange. Take that sarcasm and shove it.

TheAngelFlight said:

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We're not ending the curve. We're trying to flatten it.

But, again, so much of everything depends on your ability to test a lot of people.

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Isn't there also a risk of not flattening it - but instead just pushing it further out? To flatten the curve you actually need some number of people to be getting it and recovering. If we are all are really good at staying home for some period of time, isn't there a risk that not enough people are getting it? Eventually people will refuse to stay home anymore and then you get the peak you were trying to flatten, but some number of weeks later.

Perhaps the hope is to hold people at home until wider spread testing is possible and then to only keep home those that test positive?