coastalaggie said:

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Dr. REV, have you read this article, and if so what are your thoughts?

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CBS News spoke to one of the country's top experts on viruses, Marc Lipsitch from Harvard University, who cautions that 40-70% of the world's population will become infected and from that number, 1% of people who get symptoms from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, could die.

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Lipsitch: So say that's half the people. Then the 1% or 2% that we're seeing in the symptomatic people is cut down by half. Whatever the number is, it's gonna take a toll. If it really does spread as widely as that projection says, and that's what I think is likely to happen, then there are gonna be millions of people dying. And I don't think there's any way to get around that. And so I think there's real reason for people to be concerned. I also think that we can turn that concern into actions that will make the situation better.

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Link to story

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It's really impossible to tell at this point. But be prepared because the media will go after every doom and gloom story they can find.

But also remember that the Flu kills well over 500,000 annually. So if we and other countries don't take serious precautions than a million plus deaths is not unreasonable.

We all of the things we and other countries are currently doing, I think it would be unlikely to see that type of outcome.

But as the numbers start rising quickly the more people get tested, CNN will find every guy they can that will tell them"WORST CASE SENARO". I tell my patients the media makes money from fear not good stories so don't watch.

For instance, I could save 10 lives today but wouldn't care or report on it at all. But if a doctor down the street had a patient die from a mistake it will be the lead story.

Harkrider 93 said:

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Reveille said:

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coastalaggie said:

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Dr. REV. I asked this earlier on in the post and assume it had been buried due to the volume of people posting, so....

What are your thoughts on repatriating back to the US if you live or work abroad in country with little known cases (Nigeria)? Don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of the wall if this thing goes sideways worst then it already is.

I work with several expats from all over the world and the company has put in place restrictions on people coming from areas such as China, SK, Iran, etc... so this will hopfully help.

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Don't know for sure. The obvious answer is to get back to the States because we have a far superior healthcare system.

However, if you look at my update from today data is being released now that virus prefers a cold less humid environment. It is not spreading much below 30 degrees latitude. Thus, he may safer in a warmer dry climate. So if your health is good I think staying for a little while might have some advantages.

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we will never beat LSU

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Lol exactly! Thanks for laugh. Perfect example!! And just like after a loss on Texags, they will be everywhere.

Postal said:

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Is that 500k in the US or globally?

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Globally we have an average of around 50,000 deaths in the US from FLU record low is 32,000 and had over 80,000 a few years ago.

3rd Generation Ag said:

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My question also probably got lost in the mix. I am prone to getting atypical pneumonia when I get flu or even bad chest cold. Doctors have told me it is not the type that the pneumonia shot blocks which is how I get it every three or four years or so. Even when young.

I have tried to limit contacts but my school is set to start on Monday. I have many days of leave coming but there are tons of rule in place to keep us from using them. (why teachers accumulate days). As I read FMLA, it seems I have to be actually sick not just at risk of getting sick. I am 71 and teach high school.

I am correct in that high risk will not be considered for fmla?

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Sorry don't know that answer to that one. FMLA gets complicated but in most circumstances you have to be sick or care for someone sick. However, in all likelihood companies will be much more flexible with those things during this challenging time.

Sliver on the East Side said:

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3rd Generation Ag said:

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My question also probably got lost in the mix. I am prone to getting atypical pneumonia when I get flu or even bad chest cold. Doctors have told me it is not the type that the pneumonia shot blocks which is how I get it every three or four years or so. Even when young.

I have tried to limit contacts but my school is set to start on Monday. I have many days of leave coming but there are tons of rule in place to keep us from using them. (why teachers accumulate days). As I read FMLA, it seems I have to be actually sick not just at risk of getting sick. I am 71 and teach high school.

I am correct in that high risk will not be considered for fmla?

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I appreciate your situation and commend you for your dedication to education. Do your best to sort out FMLA concerns, but now is not the time you want to gamble and wind up in a hospital, especially based on your age and you describing that you have a tendency to develop additional superimposed infections. Hospital resources are being maxed and it's just not the time to get sick. Stay home and limit contact.

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I would agree with this and I would be shocked if your work is not flexible. Talk with your physician about writing a note or filling out FMLA paperwork for you as this usually works.

South Korea's aggressive testing results.


https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/coronavirus-fatality-rate-or-death-percentage-the-most-accurate-estimate-817752/

UPDATE 5 (March 6, 2020): South Korea is now able to test more than 10,000 people a day and tested more than 140,000 people already. Based on the newly reported numbers there are now 6284 identified coronavirus infections and 42 deaths in South Korea. This means South Korea's coronavirus case fatality rate is 0.67% as of March 6th. We believe there are still a considerable number of South Koreans who weren't tested, yet carry the coronavirus. That's why we still estimate that the new coronavirus' fatality rate is probably somewhere in between 0.2% and 0.5%.

UPDATE 6 (March 12, 2020): We now have more mature data from South Korea and are able to calculate more accurate statistics than before. Based on the newly reported numbers there are now 7864 identified coronavirus infections and 66 deaths in South Korea. This means South Korea's coronavirus case fatality rate is 0.839% as of March 12th. We believe there are still a considerable number of South Koreans who weren't tested, yet carry the coronavirus. That's why we now estimate that the new coronavirus' fatality rate is probably somewhere in between 0.3% and 0.65%.

Reading the link, the one thing that really stood out to me was that the author is using "statistics" to prove his point, then uses the phrase "I believe" like 14 times.

The death rate in SK doesn't matter, unless you live in SK. Your local death rate will be entirely dependent on patient management and exposure mitigation.

74OA said:

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Is this report credible in your opinion? Vaccine?

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There are several in preclinical and soon to be clinical trials. Not surprising that multiple companies (Canadians, Israelis, others) all have viable candidates at this stage. Keep in mind, none have pass clinical trials. This article is saying they are ready to submit to FDA. Is that FDA approval and they have already done clinical trials... no. Additionally, for all the speed they claim, the CEO is still saying Nov 2021. That is a long long time from now and probably not any faster than traditional vaccine manufacturing if one of the other vaccines works. Given the timeframe by the CEO, I think this is more an attempt to create some positive PR for the company than anything that will materially change things.

Several years ago, the federal government set up 3 facilities, one at A&M (TAMU Center of Innovation in Advanced Development and Manufacturing) to be prepared for pandemic outbreaks. TAMU CIADM is supposed to produce 50 mil doses in 4 months once they decide on a vaccine. With 3 similar facilities, that may be as high as 150 mil doses four months after they hit go. That isn't enough for everyone, so will likely be prioritized. This will be a big test of that system.

We still have to get through clinical trials and pick a safe and effective vaccine before we start the 4 month clock. And even then it won't be widely available.

Stupe said:

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When do you sleep?

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Very rarely

SteveMedina said:

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South Korea's aggressive testing results.


https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/coronavirus-fatality-rate-or-death-percentage-the-most-accurate-estimate-817752/

UPDATE 5 (March 6, 2020): South Korea is now able to test more than 10,000 people a day and tested more than 140,000 people already. Based on the newly reported numbers there are now 6284 identified coronavirus infections and 42 deaths in South Korea. This means South Korea's coronavirus case fatality rate is 0.67% as of March 6th. We believe there are still a considerable number of South Koreans who weren't tested, yet carry the coronavirus. That's why we still estimate that the new coronavirus' fatality rate is probably somewhere in between 0.2% and 0.5%.

UPDATE 6 (March 12, 2020): We now have more mature data from South Korea and are able to calculate more accurate statistics than before. Based on the newly reported numbers there are now 7864 identified coronavirus infections and 66 deaths in South Korea. This means South Korea's coronavirus case fatality rate is 0.839% as of March 12th. We believe there are still a considerable number of South Koreans who weren't tested, yet carry the coronavirus. That's why we now estimate that the new coronavirus' fatality rate is probably somewhere in between 0.3% and 0.65%.

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This is exactly the point doctors have been trying to make from the beginning of this pandemic. The number of active cases is way higher than we think, do to lack of available testing kits. As more people get tested the total cases will climb dramatically and this will significantly decrease the mortality rates. This is why people should remain calm and not believe the 3.5% that was repeated over and over again on the news.

Reveille said:

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Stupe said:

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When do you sleep?

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Very rarely

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That's more than I expected.

Snap E Tom said:

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Hey, Doc thanks for this.

I got viral cardiomyopathy several years ago. My EF Fell to 15, but is now ~45. The kicker is I am in much better shape than I was when I got the disease. Never went to a cardiologist before, was slightly overweight and didn't exercise a whole lot. Nowadays, I run a lot (20 miles/week, 4 half marathons/season). Really, my cardio performance has never been better and better than 95% of the people out there.

Would you be concerned about my situation being in the at risk group for hitting severe?

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That is a very impressive recovery you had. You should be commended on getting yourself into such great shape.

Unfortunately however, because of your history you are absolutely in the highest risk category. You should take tremendous precautions but this virus is known to cause a cardiomyopathy. The fatality rate of people with heart disease is around 11%. It will be much higher for congestive heart failure. You already have a history of a suppressed ejection fraction. It is possible if you got infected that you would go into heart failure and not be able to recover. I would limit your contacts with others to help reduce your risks.

Reveille said:

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Snap E Tom said:

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Hey, Doc thanks for this.

I got viral cardiomyopathy several years ago. My EF Fell to 15, but is now ~45. The kicker is I am in much better shape than I was when I got the disease. Never went to a cardiologist before, was slightly overweight and didn't exercise a whole lot. Nowadays, I run a lot (20 miles/week, 4 half marathons/season). Really, my cardio performance has never been better and better than 95% of the people out there.

Would you be concerned about my situation being in the at risk group for hitting severe?

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That is a very impressive recovery you had. You should be commended on getting yourself into such great shape.

Unfortunately however, because of your history you are absolutely in the highest risk category. You should take tremendous precautions but this virus is known to cause a cardiomyopathy. The fatality rate of people with heart disease is around 11%. It will be much higher for congestive heart failure. You already have a history of a suppressed ejection fraction. It is possible if you got infected that you would go into heart failure and not be able to recover. I would limit your contacts with others to help reduce your risks.

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That's what I figured. Much obliged!