In Sugar Land just outside the mandatory evacuation zone for the Brazos. Does anyone have an update of where the Brazos flooding is at?

It will be flooding EVERYWHERE if it gets to 59 feet. That level is above the Greatwood levee height.

OnlyForNow said:

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It will be flooding EVERYWHERE if it gets to 59 feet. That level is above the Greatwood levee height.

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Greatwood would be mandatory evac if their levee wouldn't hold 59 feet. Riverstone isn't mandatory either.

Riverstone is mandatory. I think Greatwood and Telfair are the two major levees that still voluntary.

ETA: Sweetwater is voluntary also.

The latest level was 49.99 feet. It's following the model extremely close. Expected to crest at 59 feet tomorrow at 6pm.

Has anyone been in Riverstone recently?
We left on Thursday to beat the rush.

I saw a guy on the weather channel broadcasting live on University Blvd abut an hour ago. You never want the city you live in to be mentioned on the weather channel multiple times.

Another question....do levees actually "break"? Or will water just overflow after 59 feet?

Ft Bend County has inundation maps for the Brazos 56 and 58 feet, in Richmond, but nothing for 59 feet or greater but note that there were mandatory evacuations today in LIDs(Levee districts) that aren't supposed to flood at 58' . You have to click the layers tab and select 56 and 58 feet. Those numbers are the number of feet above sea level.

http://fbcdd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=43d92952f370448c8925b11d419f5405

Present predictions are for a week above 59 feet. That means even if the pumps are working there is no point in pumping as the Brazos' level is still above the levees. If the pumps fail, you are looking at a New Orleans/Katrina scenario were the levees end up retaining the water after the river subsides.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=hgx&gage=rmot2

Lots of Greatwood is mandatory.

I'm not sure about other parts of SL.

Anyone have knowledge of street flooding level at Waters Lake of Sienna?

Here's the latest evac map from Fort Bend OEM.

http://fbcoem.org/map-for-evacuation-zones-mapa-de-zonas-de-evacuacion/

Help me with the map as all I have is a phone to look at this. When you put the 58' at Richmond layer on what does the pink, blue, purple mean? I can't see a legend on my phone

Grey is just the lid district. Colors mean they expect that area to flood based on their projections.

I think.

Thanks, I was told in a PM that any color means you will have water on your property, whether you flood or not inside your home depends on how night your builder built your foundation.

That's the way I read it... we shall see

If you go to "Layers" and deselect FB Levee Districts it makes the grey go away. So I believe it is just the color.

Look at your survey and if your slab isn't at least 61' above sea level expect water in your home. If the levee is topped expect to be without power, water, and sewer for weeks.

longeryak said:

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Look at your survey and if your slab isn't at least 61' above sea level expect water in your home. If the levee is topped expect to be without power, water, and sewer for weeks.

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I am ok with pessimism but the levee is 59-60' and my elevation is 60.5 according to my elevation certificate so again I say it will be close with confidence and that's all I am saying. But I appreciate the pessimism, keeps me on my toes.

mfaith24 said:

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If you go to "Layers" and deselect FB Levee Districts it makes the grey go away. So I believe it is just the color.

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Yes you are correct, gray is the levee district

Of course none of my docs from closing show a slab elevation. I'm in LID and shows I'm outside the 58' flood area and only voluntary evacuation. Crossing fingers.

My home is in New Territory and behind my house is the levee between us and Telfair. I am resigned to the fact I will probably get water in my house but realistically, will the water be up to the top of the levee? I know the water comes from the other direction than Telfair but from a purely layman expectation, the water will possibly be in the 2nd story if it fills New Territory up like a bath tub.

Does anyone know the best evacuation route from Richmond, TX (hwy 99 at 59) to College Station? I am worried about road closures between here and there. My daughter, class of '14, was just notified that they are now under a mandatory evacuation due to cresting of the Brazos river expected on Tuesday at 5pm. I normally take hwy 6 to 290 and then south on 99 to 59(69). I'm not sure if her low car can handle any standing water to get out of her subdivision. I can go get her and her husband in the morning in my Dodge Ram 4x4 if it will be safe. Any ideas are appreciated.

Thanks Ags,

Dr Clifford Dorn '81

If you are looking for your elevation try this site. It loads and operates really fast and seems to work really well.

https://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-google-maps-find-altitude.htm

NCNJ1217 said:

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If you are looking for your elevation try this site. It loads and operates really fast and seems to work really well.

https://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-google-maps-find-altitude.htm

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If this site is accurate, I should be ok. It showed my cul-de-sac at 71'. Thank you sir but I still suspect I will get some water.

So y'all correct me if I am wrong but the Brazos gauge at Rosenberg has a datum of 27'. So doesn't this mean that the gauge starts at 27' above sea level? So if they are saying the crest is 59' you add 27' to that to get the rivers crest above sea level? Which is 86'

The Brazos River gauge at San Felipe has a datum of 0' and is showing a crest of 131'.

The one at Hempstead has a datum of 107' and a crest of 52'

Gauge at West Columbia has datum of 0' and crest of 40'

If your slab elevation is showing from sea level I think a lot of people are giving themselves a false sense of security.

I believe you're correct.

The river cresting at 59' means that it's going to extend last the BFE (base flood plain eleveation) which is like 85-89 (in Richmond).

The gauge is based on the the depth to the river bed at the gauge site at the Richmond bridge. The actual elevation of the flood waters decreases slightly as you get down river.

I live in LID 19 about 1000 ft from the levee and have evacuated to Corpus. Our HOA director has spoken with LID engineers and has gotten word that at 59 ft at the Richmond gauge translates to 4-10 ft above the natural ground on the riverside of the levee at districts 15 and 19. The variance is based on downstream flow.

I am also encouraged that the NWS river forecast is now predicting it crests at 59 ft for a 12 hour period tomorrow before receding. Lets hope that trend continues and the forecast becomes more favorable.

The map which indicates evacuation areas also has routes on it (Thick black lines). I believe they have been keeping them up to date. https://fbcgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=d1a054f74789410bbe35bed305c81841

Yesterday it showed the river cresting at 4pm on Tuesday. Now it's showing it on Thursday with a much slower ramp up. Now if by the time we go to bed tonight it could show a dropping number id be real happy.

cgdorn said:

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Does anyone know the best evacuation route from Richmond, TX (hwy 99 at 59) to College Station? I am worried about road closures between here and there. My daughter, class of '14, was just notified that they are now under a mandatory evacuation due to cresting of the Brazos river expected on Tuesday at 5pm. I normally take hwy 6 to 290 and then south on 99 to 59(69). I'm not sure if her low car can handle any standing water to get out of her subdivision. I can go get her and her husband in the morning in my Dodge Ram 4x4 if it will be safe. Any ideas are appreciated.

Thanks Ags,

Dr Clifford Dorn '81

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As of yesterday, the most open route into the Sugar Land area was to approach from the south up US 59 after coming off of 71 out of Bastrop. Whatever the best route out of CS to pick up 71 south may be your best bet. Please check the TxDot website to make sure that works and be safe.

I'm also hoping that they are over predicting the river rise. People might be a little upset that they "left their homes for nothing", but it certainly beats the other fing alternative which is to have thousands of people stranded and loss of life from over topping the levee.

I helped evacuate some family from sugar land yesterday. We took back roads all the way up to hempstead, everything else we found was flooded, except maybe going even farther west. We took 59 to spur 10. hwy 90 through east bernard to eagle lake. We then took 102 to 949. Frelsburg to Mentz to Zimmerscheidt rds. From Zimmerscheidt to Weishun into New Ulm. From there 109 up to industry and 159 all the way to hempstead. This was open and did not look close to flooding as of yesterday afternoon. Anybody who can get to 59 should be able to use this route to get out.

I'm in Lid 1 and we stayed through mandatory evacuations. We got lucky as water never got over our curb. We're close to Lost Creek Park.

Updated Brazos at Richmond model has lowered crest height to 57.5!