While not the same source, go to tropicaltidbits.com for other model runs that put another system in/by SE TX at the 140-96 hr range.

Just an fyi, those were posted almost 24 hours ago. My parents are right there and have been a ok so far

My TWC app had a short video about the west African storm. Not supposed to arrive to eastern caribbean until at least *next* Wednesday.

Haven't heard a peep from anyone about the one in the southern gulf.


And are we sure the date is correct? That's practically the exact same path as Harvey!!!

TheVarian said:

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Just an fyi, those were posted almost 24 hours ago. My parents are right there and have been a ok so far

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That water is 4'+ deep.. your parents are right there and didn't take on water? Looks like all along cypresswood is 4' deep+ from other videos I've seen. But the end of the video shows cars on the road ahead (closer to KHS), so I guess it just spreads from the creek out 1/2-3/4 mile or so.

62strat said:

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God.. this is my old hood. Klein high school Class of '98.

https://www.facebook.com/cory.germon.5?hc_ref=ARScMDmAEkl4Y4yPk_hLq-yFXtmbw6VsTt-zQPGbKg7Dc6F6FEZNjoloM1D7ZTbJ7t4


Boat is travelling northbound on Stuebner Airline at Cypresswood (right north of cypress creek), only 1/2 mile south of Klein HS.

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Class of 04 here. Saw that on the news yesterday. Crazy to imagine.

62strat said:

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AG 2000' said:

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Oof. Latest models show another system developing in the Gulf and coming north to Texas (read: more rain). Plus that other disturbance in the Atlantic.



And the 5-day forecast rain totals starting Saturday morning (9/2).

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I"m not seeing anything on this except your two pics here.. what is source?

That first picture, is that current/today?

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Yes, it's a model run initiated today.

It's from behind a paywall technically.

You can also see corresponding public info at:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That should land you on the GFS model. Up above the graphic, if you press the right row you can cycle forward on the model. If you loop through to next Monday you get:

I'd keep an eye on it but not pay too much attention to it yet. The models aren't that great so far out in advance. A week before Friday, models were pushing Harvey as a weak TS in to Mexico.

Figured I'd post this here since it gets traffic. I'm coming back into Houston tomorrow from midland and wanted to see if anyone was interested in me grabbing some supplies at the Home Depot out here. They have air blowers, demo bars, anti mold, 1 gallon pump sprayers, etc

http://www.homedepot.com/p/RIDGID-1625-CFM-Air-Mover-AM2560/202942745

http://m.homedepot.com/p/DEWALT-36-in-Wrecking-Bar-DWHT55131/202985573

corndog04 said:

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I'd keep an eye on it but not pay too much attention to it yet. The models aren't that great so far out in advance. A week before Friday, models were pushing Harvey as a weak TS in to Mexico.

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True. I only mentioned it because all the major models are in agreement that something will be in the Gulf in that area come Monday, but it is a ways out.

Another good source of info is at https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50179-tropical-storm-harvey/?page=180

It's a site of weather nerds and meteorologists.

Bearkat here, c/o 99. The images and videos I'm seeing from our old neighborhood are unreal.

AG 2000' said:

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62strat said:

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AG 2000' said:

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Oof. Latest models show another system developing in the Gulf and coming north to Texas (read: more rain). Plus that other disturbance in the Atlantic.



And the 5-day forecast rain totals starting Saturday morning (9/2).

---

I"m not seeing anything on this except your two pics here.. what is source?

That first picture, is that current/today?

---

Yes, it's a model run initiated today.

It's from behind a paywall technically.

You can also see corresponding public info at:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That should land you on the GFS model. Up above the graphic, if you press the right row you can cycle forward on the model. If you loop through to next Monday you get:

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Wait.. so the first picture above, shows the storm near africa, then a storm near Mexico/texas. That storm by TX/mexico is not currently there correct? That is a predicted model from like a week from now?

Looks like the latest Euro model has a low pressure system hitting the TX/LA boarder around Wednesday of next week. At 1000 milibars, I believe that would be a week tropical storm. Still the bigger threat of rain would remain. The GFS isn't necessarily buying the tropical storm, but still has us getting rain from a low pressure system in the gulf about Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Forecast models are usually not great a weak or so out, but it's something to keep an eye on. Normally this wouldn't be a big deal, but it would set-back recovery efforts.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwfion=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Flooding is really bad up to those 3 story looking apartments across from the stadium. The other side of louetta is good. Like theiss mail rt and all that is in good shape right now.

Sorry, they aren't right off of the road there, but back off of Strack and Champions. Didn't mean to offend as it breaks my heart just as much. Kills me to see all of this destruction, but my heart swells with pride seeing how many have come to help and the outpouring of love from all around

62strat said:

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AG 2000' said:

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62strat said:

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AG 2000' said:

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Oof. Latest models show another system developing in the Gulf and coming north to Texas (read: more rain). Plus that other disturbance in the Atlantic.



And the 5-day forecast rain totals starting Saturday morning (9/2).

---

I"m not seeing anything on this except your two pics here.. what is source?

That first picture, is that current/today?

---

Yes, it's a model run initiated today.

It's from behind a paywall technically.

You can also see corresponding public info at:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That should land you on the GFS model. Up above the graphic, if you press the right row you can cycle forward on the model. If you loop through to next Monday you get:

---

Wait.. so the first picture above, shows the storm near africa, then a storm near Mexico/texas. That storm by TX/mexico is not currently there correct? That is a predicted model from like a week from now?

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That's correct. Nothing really down there by Mexico right now, but models are all starting to peg something developing.

Timelines would be development in Bay of Campeche by Monday (9/4) with a 9/6 or 9/7 landfall on the southeast Texas coast.

Just made it back home in Westbury from Austin. Took 290E --> 99N --> 249S --> 290E --> 610S and was able to exit at Post Oak and down to our house off Chimney Rock/W Bellfort. Didn't encounter any high water or slow downs at any point.

Word of warning - I stopped around Waller to top of my gas tank and tried 3 different stations but they were all out.

TheVarian said:

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Sorry, they aren't right off of the road there, but back off of Strack and Champions. Didn't mean to offend as it breaks my heart just as much. Kills me to see all of this destruction, but my heart swells with pride seeing how many have come to help and the outpouring of love from all around

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dang that's really close to the creek (probably closer than the boat in that video).. they got really lucky. Must jump up in elevation quicker on the south side of the creek.

I wonder how that 'million dollar row' as I called it as a kid fared. The mansions across from raveneux.

AG 2000' said:

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62strat said:

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AG 2000' said:

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62strat said:

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AG 2000' said:

---

Oof. Latest models show another system developing in the Gulf and coming north to Texas (read: more rain). Plus that other disturbance in the Atlantic.



And the 5-day forecast rain totals starting Saturday morning (9/2).

---

I"m not seeing anything on this except your two pics here.. what is source?

That first picture, is that current/today?

---

Yes, it's a model run initiated today.

It's from behind a paywall technically.

You can also see corresponding public info at:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

That should land you on the GFS model. Up above the graphic, if you press the right row you can cycle forward on the model. If you loop through to next Monday you get:

---

Wait.. so the first picture above, shows the storm near africa, then a storm near Mexico/texas. That storm by TX/mexico is not currently there correct? That is a predicted model from like a week from now?

---

That's correct. Nothing really down there by Mexico right now, but models are all starting to peg something developing.

Timelines would be development in Bay of Campeche by Monday (9/4) with a 9/6 or 9/7 landfall on the southeast Texas coast.

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Aww crikey

Silky Johnston said:

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Just made it back home in Westbury from Austin. Took 290E --> 99N --> 249S --> 290E --> 610S and was able to exit at Post Oak and down to our house off Chimney Rock/W Bellfort. Didn't encounter any high water or slow downs at any point.

Word of warning - I stopped around Waller to top of my gas tank and tried 3 different stations but they were all out.

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Did you drive down 71 to bastrop and then take 21 to 290 or did you just go 290 straight from Austin?

Also, did you notice any areas where water was close to the road? Planning on making this trip in the morning

Friends need to get back from Corpus to NRG area... recommendation on route?

I drive that on a regular basis. Used to be my daily commute.

http://imgur.com/a/qXYDS

[url=http://imgur.com/a/qXYDS][/url]I just went to look at addicks resevior in person. I was right by Sherwood elementary on the east side near brittmoor and west view. I took some photos of the resevior and turkey creek there but I don't know how to upload them to post on here.

The water appeared to me and another neighbor to be about 20-30 feet below the top of the levee. That guy said he was there yesterday and the water had come up considerably since then.

My thought is that the water will not top the levee on the east side since it's already spilling over on the west side near barker-cypress. Are we relatively ok on the east side of Addicks?

Edit to try and add photos

jaggiemaggie said:

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Friends need to get back from Corpus to NRG area... recommendation on route?

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Me too. TIA

jaggiemaggie said:

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Friends need to get back from Corpus to NRG area... recommendation on route?

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59 looks clear the whole way.

corndog04 said:

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I'd keep an eye on it but not pay too much attention to it yet. The models aren't that great so far out in advance. A week before Friday, models were pushing Harvey as a weak TS in to Mexico.

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Nope.

This post is from 8.18.17 at 1:30pm on the S Texas board:

Quote:

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Alright the EURO thinks that TS Harvey(? Not sure that this is Harvey) will be a CAT 2 dangerous hurricane on our doorstep in 6-8 days.

Sunday night August 27th as it moves due west:

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For 7-9 days out it did pretty well.

Went straight down 290 from Austin. I did not encounter any dicey areas. Most of the trip was on elevated roadways and I only came by one area that had water on the road and that was when I exited 99 to get onto 249. It was just one spot that had water at the curb, but it was only on half the lane and the three other lanes had no standing water.

I left around 11:30am and made it home around 2:30PM.

third coast.. said:

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everyone else is out of cars. ugh.

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You may have already found a solution by now but you should know that all Toyota dealers rent cars. There's sure to be one near DFW and it may have been overlooked. Good luck.

TheVarian said:

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Is this addicks reservoir?