On the bright side with this storm sitting stationary as it has been and is, the current models are a cluster. Some are now taking the storm back into the western part of the state now after making landfall near Corpus

Ag_07 said:

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Or the Mayweather-McGregor fight everyone will be paying a couple bills for.

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Won't be watching via satellite.

Dang, that gif gets me every time...

I hope the hurricane moves further north. We in Arlington could use the rain and I'm guessing y'all could take a pass on the flooding.

Cromagnum said:

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the green one looks like the Texas Cyclone at Astroworld

gigemJTH12 said:

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my baby is due in 2 weeks. Guess I better start reading up on how to deliver this kid myself if we get trapped this weekend.

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Get a hotel room near the hospital, not joking
Mine came 2 weeks early and delivered very fast. Like if it wasn't Labor Day I would have been delivering in traffic on 610

Ag_07 said:

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Or the Mayweather-McGregor fight everyone will be paying a couple bills for.

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I can't fathom paying for that.

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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my baby is due in 2 weeks. Guess I better start reading up on how to deliver this kid myself if we get trapped this weekend.

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Get a hotel room near the hospital, not joking
Mine came 2 weeks early and delivered very fast. Like if it wasn't Labor Day I would have been delivering in traffic on 610

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I thought the same thing. Plus it might be on the hospital grid, so more likely to have power.

4PM update: The central pressure of Harvey has surprisingly not dropped this afternoon, and it's taking a more westward track.

Hey, this weekend Pleasure Pier in Galveston has buy one get one free rides.

Texaggie7nine said:

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Hey, this weekend Pleasure Pier in Galveston has buy one get one free rides.

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is that before or after you pay $20 for the honor of walking out on the pier.

Mr. AGSPRT04 said:

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4PM update: The central pressure of Harvey has surprisingly not dropped this afternoon, and it's taking a more westward track.

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SO is that good or bad for teh Tine? I know we're gonna get hit with the dirty side, but the further west the better? Would going further west minimize it coming back around east once it hits land?

Jock 07 said:

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Texaggie7nine said:

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Hey, this weekend Pleasure Pier in Galveston has buy one get one free rides.

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is that before or after you pay $20 for the honor of walking without being surrounded by a bunch of hoodlums.

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FIFY

That new map shows it stalling out near Corpus instead of the 'Tine as before. We still get rain under that scenario, but much less that under the prior model.

Jock 07 said:

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Cromagnum said:

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the green one looks like the Texas Cyclone at Astroworld

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STOP POSTING MY DEGREE PLAN, please.

New models are showing a hit near South Padre, then doing a loop way down there reentering the gulf far south and then coming up to Houston anyways.

Way too much uncertainty still at this point, but it would be hilarious if it hit South Padre and then went west, missing us entirely, without a drop of rain. Would rank up there with the all-time Epic Storm fails for Houston, although Rita will always have the #1 spot.

We are currently having a turd floater in CS so I am already happy.

So glad I stayed put with Rita.


But, to be fair, a Cat 30 'cane could be bearing down on the Tine and I'd probably stay put.

Texaggie7nine said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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ChiliBeans said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Or the Mayweather-McGregor fight everyone will be paying a couple bills for.

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I can't fathom paying for that.

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I cant fathom 100 bucks (even split between a couple friends) being a noticeable amount of money

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Sweet. Then you wouldn't mind paypal'ing me a hundy for no particular reason huh?

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I plan to order it, but definitely waiting until Saturday afternoon/evening. Gotta make sure I have electricity and I am not power washing the inside and outside of my house with all the bleach I bought

I should have kept a diary of my Rita evac.

Models are shifting and diverging over South TX

Wednesday evening briefing from Jeff:
Weak Hurricane or strong tropical storm heading for the TX coast
Preparations to protect life and property should be underway in the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas
Potentially dangerous and life threatening flood and flash flood event for a large portion of coastal, SC, and SE TX
Discussion:
Harvey has moved little today based on USAF mission fixes and has shown very little increase in organization. While the surface circulation appears to be becoming better defined, the convective pattern has been sporadic and disorganized and there are few banding features. Some of the "slowness" on the organization is likely the NNE extending trough axis that is elongating the circulation some and spreading out the deeper convection reducing the organization near the center. Additionally, dry air is lurking just west of the center and some of this may be intruding into the circulation helping to cut down on organization.
Track:
Forecast track models continue to move Harvey toward the NW and NNW with a landfall along the lower to middle TX coast between Corpus and Matagorda Bay Friday evening. There is a general decent consensus on this track reasoning although there has been some development of model spread today compared to yesterday. Near and after landfall the steering flow collapses and Harvey is left to meander near/just inland of the coast around the coastal bend region. Harvey will find itself in a region trapped by building high pressure to the NW of TX and over the central Gulf of Mexico and a weak trough extending into E TX from the NE US. Models have shown more of a gradual loop today with the system moving W on Saturday and then S and then E by Sunday/Monday and nearly back to where it makes landfall on Friday night. For now will not go with as of dramatic of westward loop and instead slow the system and meander it slowly E to ESE near/around the Matagorda Bay/coastal bend Saturday, Sunday and Monday before a slightly faster E/ENE motion may develop by next Tuesday.
It is possible that Harvey could also stall very near the coast which would limit the amount of weakening to a degree.
Intensity:
Not expecting much organization of the system over the next 12 hours as conditions aloft gradually become better and Harvey attempt to form a more defined inner core area. On Thursday Harvey should begin to gradually intensify as it moves across 85-88 degree water temperatures and a "deep" warm eddy over the WC Gulf that broke off the Gulf stream. As Harvey nears the coast (within 18-24 hours of landfall or Friday) conditions look to become extremely favorable for intensification. In fact the latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows a 62% chance of rapid intensification, which is why it is vitally important that Harvey moves inland before slowing and stalling.
Current NHC forecast brings Harvey to a minimal hurricane just before landfall, and the intensity trend on Friday will need to be monitored extremely closely as the system nears the coast.
Impacts:
Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts of 10-15 inches over a very large area will be possible with isolated totals of 20 inches or more. Where these significant heavy rains fall potentially extends from SW LA to SC TX and S TX.
Flooding is a very real and great concern with Harvey and preparations should factor this potential
Flash flood watches will be required over the next 24-36 hours.
Storm Surge:
Coastal water level rises of 4-5 feet will be possible in the storm surge watch area. Latest NHC inundation graphic shows little above ground flooding from tides/storm surge except in the tidal marshes around Matagorda and Galveston Bays and in the tidal zones and bay around Corpus north to Seadrift.
See link for interact storm surge inundation mapping
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/re/graphics_at4+shtml/211729.shtml
Coastal water levels will begin rising Thursday afternoon as larger swells begin to arrive on the TX coast. Expect tides to reach some dune lines late Thursday and then more widespread coastal flooding conditions Friday into Saturdaybut still mainly in the marsh areas and the lowest most vulnerable areas.
One aspect to consider is that as Harvey stalls it will keep a strong onshore wind flow in place through the weekend and tides will be very slow to recede
Winds:
Tropical Storm force winds will spread into the coastal bend region early Friday and into the Matagorda Bay area Friday afternoon and then possibly as far NE as Galveston Bay Friday night. Hurricane conditions will move into the coastal bend region from Port Aransas to Matagorda Bay Friday night and continue into Saturday morning and spread inland across the current Hurricane Watch area counties. Think Matagorda County may see gusts to hurricane force and this is less likely in Brazoria County even though they are in the hurricane watch area. With very favorable conditions aloft, Harvey will only slowly spin down once inland and hurricane conditions will be possible 1-2 counties inland over SC TX on Saturday which is why the hurricane watch included those inland areas. Tropical storm conditions will be possible along much of the upper TX coast Saturday and inland across portions of Harris, Austin, Fort Bend, Wharton, and Colorado Counties.
Winds across Calhoun, Aransas, Refugio, and San Patricio counties will be the strongest Friday night (sustained 70-80 with gust to 85)
Actions:
Enact your flood and hurricane plans.
Be prepared for a prolonged multi-day event especially with heavy rainfall and flooding that could last well into next week
Power outages will be possible especially in the Matagorda Bay and coastal bend region where hurricane conditions are most likely
Some damage to roofs, windows, vegetation, and mobile homes will be possible in the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay region where hurricane conditions will be felt.
Be prepared for travel disruption across the entire region from late Friday into early next week.

That's pretty stupid when Monday would make more sense.

rhoswen said:

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That's pretty stupid when Monday would make more sense.

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LOL they know that Monday will be a free day off

Fitch said:

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Even if it follows the 10 P.M. advisory's projected path, there's still an estimate of 10+ inches of rain along the coast, even into SW Louisiana...the detailed forecast mentions this.

If what's in that picture occurs, woof...that's an Allison-type disaster waiting to happen.