First let me say that I'm an avid Astros fan but just don't feel it for this year.

My question is why are expectations for this year are so low? This is basically the same team that fell behind early last year, switched coaches and then made up enough ground to justify getting Beltran and the rest is history (1 win away from the World Series).

This year, we MAY have a healthy Pettite plus a FULL year of a better coach. I don't consider losing Kent that big of a deal. So can anyone put their finger on why most don't hold out much hope for a good year? Is it just because of our history?

Also, we really need to get Berkman back soon. We're going to need every win we can get...even April wins. I have a feeling that if we do make the post-season, it's going to be a VERY close race.

One request: cubs fans, please don't hijack this thread and turn it into a "we're so much better than you...blah, blah" thread.

Thanks.

Ag Defense

I get worried anytime my team starts three rokkies in the outfield. I don't mind the loss of Kent, we are essentially trading Lane's bat for Kent's and I think he will carry that load.

The pitching staff looks more solid if Pettitte stays healthy, so far so good.

They really need another stick and another reliever to solidify things and give me hope that they can stay with the Cards, Cubs, Mets, Braves and Marlins.

Lane is a veteran.

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So can anyone put their finger on why most don't hold out much hope for a good year?

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i think the main concern of most is the uncertainty surrounding the team.

for the astros to make the playoffs, they'll have to get some production from ensberg, lane, taveras, scott, backe, and everett. while they undoubtedly all have potential, they haven't yet produced consistently enough to warrant unquestioned confidence. plus, anytime you have an 'older' team or have guys coming off injuries, health is an issue.

that said, i'm really looking forward to seeing how this season plays out. i think the starting pitching will do enough to keep them in most ballgames and the young guys will find their niche and step up when needed.

but there are definitely some question marks about the stros this season and i can't really fault anyone for not just assuming they'll all be answered positively.

I am worried because this team will not have much offense until lance comes back and even when lance does come back who said he will be as good as last year. I am just worried that we will not have much offense this year so the pitching better be all it is cracked up to be.

Compare the 2-6 hitters from end of last year to this year and say we havent lost much.


Last year:
2) Beltran
3) Bagwell
4) Lance
5) Kent
6) Ensberg

This year:
2) Biggio
3) Bagwell
4) Ensberg
5) Scott
6) Lane

I know lance will be back eventually and be hitting clean up. But I totally disagree when people say losing kent was not that big a deal. Basically we get better defense out of biggio but we are trading kent's bat for Luke Scott's Bat since biggio would have played regardless. Then we trade Beltran's bat and defense for Lane's bat and defense. Lane has not yet proven he can replace a former MVPs bat. Hopefully Lane proves me wrong this year.

Edit for correction of 2-6 hitters. And I think this proves my point even more in that we have a rookie hitting in the 5 hole when I think Lanes bat should be there.

[This message has been edited by Ags #1 (edited 4/8/2005 10:03a).]

Willie mo Pena, Mike cameron, Austin kearns

Mark it down, one of these guys will be an astro in the not so distant future.

Personally i want us to get pena BADLY. That guy has got some serious pop and we could use his run production in the lineup. I just dont know if luke scott can get it together quick enough to start him every day. We shall see though. He is a left hander and we have basically none in the lineup to speak of besides berkman.

Also the mets are in desperate desperate need of some bullpen help. I have no idea who we could dangle their way but an outfeild of berkman, cameron and tavarez/lane would be pretty solid.


The problem with the astros this year is going to be power. Its not going to be just "hitting". We hit the ball pretty well, its just there is no real "consistent" power besides berkman and occasionally bagwell. I think that the last game against the cardinals is a taste of how this year is going to play out. Through 8 innings we banged out 15 hits and ended up scoring just 1 run off of it. 13 of them were singles and finally lamb got us an extra basehit to push across a few more runs. I think thats how alot of games are going to play out for us this year. Execution is going to be IMPERATIVE this year. I cant stress that enough. Execution is whats going to win games for us. We cant rely on hitting a 3 run homer every 4 innings to win games for us like astros teams of the past. We are going to have to hit and run, slap the ball around the feild, draw some walks, get our bunts down and advance runners. Chris burke dropped down a bunt the other night and ended up popping it up to the pitcher for an easy out. Stuff like that cannot happen this year. Garner is going to run and play small ball and try to generate some offense. But like the other night we have got to get a big extra basehit every now and then. We just cant keep hoping for the 3 run bomb like years past to keep us in games.

I think alot of the apprehension this year is because like i mentioned; we have almost moved from a power hitting high strikeout gorilla ball team, to a more contact hitting manufacturing runs type team.
Will it work? Honestly i dont know. We arent going to win this divison but the wildcard is coming out of the central IMO. That means again its coming down to either us or the cubs. Who can last each other out down the stretch is who is going to be moving on. I think they have just as many holes and question marks as we do.



[This message has been edited by bullard21k (edited 4/8/2005 10:01a).]

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Compare the 2-6 hitters from end of last year to this year and say we havent lost much.

Last year:
2) Beltran
3) Bagwell
4) Lance
5) Kent
6) Ensberg

This year:
2) Everett
3) Bagwell
4) Ensberg
5) Lane
6) Scott

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Been watching games? 2-6 this year is actually...

2)Biggio
3)Bagwell
4)Ensberg
5)Scott
6)Lane

Everett is the leadoff man.

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The Bullpen-Baseball Forum
http://wc5.worldcrossing.com/webx?14@@.1ddedfa7

sorry. I have been watching this year. I must have gotten everett and biggio switched up and switched lane and scott too but I still think you get my point.

And I think this proves my point even more in that we have an unproven rookie hitting in the 5 hole when I personally think Lane, who has played a few seasons, should be hitting.

[This message has been edited by Ags #1 (edited 4/8/2005 10:05a).]

Ags #1 hit on the crux of it.

In a nutshell the lack of optimism comes down to a lack of proven firepower especially with your best run producer, Berkman, missing a significant portion of the season. It will take Berkman a while to hit his stride once he starts playing. Bagwell is no longer the highly feared hitter around the league that he once was. Neither Ensberg nor Lane have yet proven they can consistently produce offensively.

On the pitching side, I ask myself who can be counted on to set the table for Lidge? There are no proven setup guys.

It might all work out fine but there is a lot of uncertainty. At least Garner's team's can manufacture some runs as opposed to "Wait for the big shot" Jimy.

quote:

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Lane is a veteran

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He may not qualify for rookie awards (I have no idea what the qualifications are) but I refuse to consider someone who has 240 career ABs and is a first time starter a veteran.

Please don't trade for Mike Cameron. I don't want an attitude ridden player who has hit .250 on once in the past three years.

The 2 key players are Lane and Ensberg. If they can each hit 20 homers, the Astros should be okay with their very good starting pitching and great closer.

Just so y'all know...Adam Dunn has made rumblings about interest in playing in Houston. Since he is from New Caney and still lives here in the offseason...really might not be too much to be surprised.

However, I agree on the list of 3 that you gave between Pena, Cameron and Kearns. Although, I'd like to give Jason Lane at least a full month to see what he can string together. This guy has been a hitter and showed the other night, he can make plays that our RF starting off last year (Hidalgo) couldn't. (Of course, he doesn't have Hidalgo's arm either, but Lane has a strong arm as well).

Like everyone else said, the main concern is the cloud of doubt...

Can Taveras hit consistently?
Can Backe be the same pitcher he was in September and October?
Can the 5th starter give quality outings?
Can the bullpen come together?
Will Bagwell snap out of his funk?
Will Ensberg decide to hit the long ball again?
Can Luke Scott keep things afloat until Berkman gets back in 2 to 3 weeks?

Berkman has actually been swinging and hitting since Spring Training began...so his hitting motion won't be off when he comes back. Someone asked if he can be the same player he was last year. He has proven he is an All-Star and an elite player in this league...so yeah, I think he can. The question is...can you get any less out of Ensberg, Bagwell or Ausmus than you did last year? I think not.

Nobody in the Astros lineup had a career year in 2004...however, those 3 guys had their statistical worst career years. (I know Bagwell and Ensberg did...I'm pretty sure Ausmus was in that group too).

bull - I watched Willy Mo at the Box last year during BP. The dude hit some MONSTER shots. One went OVER the All Star game sign they had up in left field. I just couldn't believe this guy wasn't a fixture in the starting lineup. Well then the game started, and he got a chance to pinch hit. 3 straight breaking balls, 3 straight HACKS.

"Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats. I offer him cigar, rum. He will come." - Pedro Cerrano

Last year was a one shot deal. I've said it before, but I'll go over it again.

Lets look at offense:
Three rookies in the outfield. That's the worst, but not the only reason for pessimism. Berkman has been a slow starter before when he missed spring training. Took a month for him to get up to speed. Bad news, that means July. Bagwell and Biggio aren't going to improve their numbers, you can only hope they don't drop. Still, Biggio is an asset with a bat at second. I'm relatively optimistic about SS and 3B. Though neither are going to be top tier. Ausmus is not an offensive force and his bat is not why he's on the team.

Defense:
But Ausmus is a very good defensive catcher. Bagwell and Biggio are nothing flashy anymore. I'm scared about center and having left is being wasted. You need a power guy in left, and it doesn't matter if they can run.

Pitching:
There is a little injury history with Pettite and Oswalt, but I think they make it through the year. Clemens is a HOFer, but a 40+ HOFer. Lidge is the best in the National League with Gagne on the DL, but who is going to get him the ball?

No, Beltran decided the next couple years when he left. Clemens was brought back because he puts butts in the seats, but the Astros are in full rebuilding mode. The question is what to do with Bags and Biggio. At this point, you hold on and let them go into the hall having played their careers as Astros.

Note that if the Astros hadn't botched the Nolan Ryan deal all those years ago, there would be an Astro in the HOF and there would be no pressure to keep Bags and Biggio. Just food for thought.

Oh, and lets not forget that the Astros didn't exactely storm into the playoffs last year. This year the wildcard is coming out of the NL East with Atlanta and Florida absolutely stacked.

FarmerJohn,

Thanks for your POV...and don't take this the wrong way, but you haven't a clue what you're talking about.

Injury history with Pettitte and Oswalt?

Oswalt has had one season where he only made 25 starts, the rest have been full seasons.

Pettitte just made his first career trip to the DL last year...so thanks for being on top of that information.

Our defense is suspect in center and left?????

We're most likely going to have Berkman back in left this year and a rookie who has been brought along as a defensive prodigy in Taveras in Center. How is an outfield of Berkman, Taveras and Lane NOT a major upgrade defensively from Biggio, Beltran and Berkman?

LF
'04 Biggio/'05 Berkman - Major upgrade

CF
'04 Beltran/'05 Taveras - Worry about it until you're blue in the face...in 3 months we can revisit this topic and you tell me how much of a downgrade defensively you think this is?

RF
'04 Berkman/'05 Lane - Upgrade..Lane is faster than Berkman and has a cannon for an arm.

In the infield, the left side of the infield is a wash with the same starters back...however, the Astros didn't have Everett at SS for the better part of the last two months, defensively, he is an upgrade over Vizcaino.

Biggio, while not what he once was..has more range than Jeff Kent and isn't known as a slacker like Kent often was at 2B. Bagwell is a wash, and his skills with the glove aren't diminishing...it's his throwing arm that's an issue. He still digs and fields the position as well as anyone in the game...1B isn't exactly an A-list defensive position for a good arm.

So up the middle, you're better...and when Burke is in for Biggio, with a middle infield of Everett and Burke..you're SIGNIFICANTLY better.

The "3 rookies in the outfield" comment is equal parts ignorant and flat out dumb. Lane isn't a rookie, he is a veteran. Taveras is, and his bat will be a concern. Ok, if you want to include Luke Scott in your starting picture just because he'll get part of the duties in April...I guess, your post was completely negative...so that serves its purpose for you.

May lineup for the Astros:
SS Everett
2B Biggio
1B Bagwell
LF Berkman
3B Ensberg
RF Lane
C Ausmus
CF Taveras

With the rotation that the Astros have and the closer in Lidge, that lineup will produce enough to keep you afloat into the late stages of June when you can start really scanning the trade market for the extra bat that you need.

BTW - Yeah, you're right, the Astros didn't exactly charge into the playoffs last year. They just backdoored their way in..from 10 games out of the wildcard on August 15th to winning it.

And another thing, you tried to play the Astro fan angle on your post...I don't think there's a single person that has followed this team over the past few years that would believe that you are for a second.

Some of you make some extremely valid points. But, the Astros have only played 2 games.

What I do know is that Jason Lane is a special player. I fully expect Lane will hit about .290 with 25 to 30 homeruns and 100 rbis. He is that good.

Taveras only needs to hit .250 (which he will) and catch everything in the outfield (which he will). Berkman will hit his usual .300 or walk a lot, so he will be on base more than any year in his career.

I think Houston can win with Lane, Taveras, and Berkman in the outfield.

The key to the Astros will not be the outfield, it is the starting infield that concerns me. Frankly, Bagwell should retire. He is so far from even being a good player anymore. He has one shoulder, and that shows. Everett is struggling, and he must do better. Biggio is proven, and will hit .280.

My concern with Houston is why they like Ensberg so much. It is laughable that he bats cleanup. Morgan might have hit homeruns while on the juice, but over the past 1.5 years, he has shown almost zero power. Lamb should play, and the risk of poor defense is not a concern to me.

Perhaps Houston will make a trade in a month or so, but for now, let's see what they can do.

Hard core pessimism comes from being a Houston sports fan. I believe there is plenty of concern with som many unproven guys but I also think it could go positively as well. IF taveras shows he can get on base then he will move into the leadoff spot and will be a threat. IF Ensberg can hit more like two years ago than last year the heart of our lineup will produce once Lance is back.

Biggio has already made two or three plays that Kent would not have even tried to make last year. Kent is close to a wash as he cost us at least one hit against every other game with a lack of hustle in the field and lane will make up for much of Kent's production. IF Lane can hit a little and keep from hitting into one dp every other game as Kent did then we will not notice Kent's departure.

The setup crew is the setup crew of the hottest team in MLB in August and September. They were nobodies so... IF they can continue then we have little to worry about. Same with Backe, IF he is really as good as he looked at the end of the year we will be fine.

There is talk of losing Beltran which I think is HUGE but also want to point out that he batted somewhere near .250 during August and Deptember while the Astros made their big run.

No no.5 is not anything new. We didn't have one last year!

All and all, i don't believe we will be good enough to overtake the cards (they could be scary good). I don't expect a wildcard but wouldn't be shocked if it happened. IF our young guys produce, which may or may not happen, we will be as good as all but about 3 teams in the NL.

Thanks to everyone for the great comments / input.

I believe yesterday's loss to the Mets is something we'll probably see more than a few times this year: a starter pitches well but if he doesn't go 7 innings, our "middle" relief might pitch well or it might pour gasoline on the fire. I realize the misplays in the field hurt but that wasn't the only problem.

I feel better that we may stay in the race for a wildcard spot for a good chunk of the season and, who knows, we may surprise a few people once Berkman gets back.

Before his 2 hits yesterday, Everett was batting .111 with an OBP of .304, leading me to believe that Tavaras will be batting leadoff by the time they get back to Houston.

quote:

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One request: cubs fans, please don't hijack this thread and turn it into a "we're so much better than you...blah, blah" thread.

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I would have to say that the majority of the times there are discussions about the Cubs and Astros it ends up being: Cubs suck, Zambrano's a psycopath, etc. Maybe it's because there are more Astro fans on the forum but it's harder to have an intelligent conversation with a lot of them. I'm sure that TimAg, AgRyan and wreckncrew would agree (Those being the Cub fans that seem to have the greatest presence here.)

Didn't you just do what you do not like others to do?

make a stupid ad hominem attack? I actually made the point that if Ag defense would actually look at most of the Baseball threads Astro fans would characterize his accusation more than Cub fans would.

i kinda like tavarez in the 8 spot...there is not a lot of pressure on him there, and he has been getting some pitches to hit so far...i like the astros this year once lance comes back...we need someone to get us to lidge though...i can't take a season like it was in the playoffs last year

Trying is the first step towards failure.
-Homer Simpson

Go Rangers!

"Other teams fans will realize the Bears are back, even while A&M continues to improve. They will feel your pain and be more understanding how it happened." -truebear

baylor university - national champs in football and bball in 2005-2006 or hell i mean forever and ever...Be Scared Sic em

quote:

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baylor university - national champs in football and bball in 2005-2006 or hell i mean forever and ever...Be Scared Sic em

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huh?

I think the Stros are not as strong as they were last year but thats why they play the game. I am not a bandwagoner and think every year is the year. This year pitching is strong but with no middle relief and youngster will really hurt ,..., game yesterday with the Mets.

Did you just use "ad hominem" on an internet message board? Impressive.

Thread hijacker.

thanks

blue...i DO read just about every thread on baseball. That's why I made the request to Cubs fans...obviously it wasn't heeded.

But back to baseball, what's up with Roy O? He's not pitching poorly but he doesn't seem to be up to his normal standards. Though the 12-0 (or so) lifetime record against the Reds is pretty impressive. I'm glad that Pettite and Backe had good outings though. That's a pleasant surprise. It looks like next Tuesday against Atlanta will be the first start for our 5th starter.

So are you saying that clemens would pitch on 3 days rest in Cincy on sunday? We got clemens on weds., backe on thurs., roy on fri., pettite on saturday, and then Roger again on sunday.

I haven't seen anywhere that Roger will pitch on Sunday. Garner and Purpura both have said that April 17 will be the first time we need a 5th pitcher. I think it will be Duckworth but they could bring up Astacio instead.

Ag Defense

Let's let Roy O get some starts under his belt before wondering about him. He as traditionally been a bit of a slow starter and gets better as the season goes along.