Not to get ahead of ourselves, but let's assume PVAM is one of those home wins:

a 3-6 or 4-5 record to close out SEC play gets you a top 16 RPI

a 6-3 finish in SEC play gets you a top 8 RPI


Home/Away splits in the remaining 9 SEC games:

These are all Top 16 outcomes:
3-3 Home & 0-3 Away
2-4 Home & 1-2 Away
1-5 Home & 3-0 Away

These are all Top 8 outcomes:
6-0 Home & 0-3 Away
5-1 Home & 1-2 Away
4-2 Home & 2-1 Away
3-3 Home & 3-0 Away

We either need to win all remaining series to maintain a Top 8 or sweep one of the home stands and win the other home series and avoid the road sweep. Never an empty weekend in the SEC.

Of course, a top-8 RPI isn't necessarily enough to get you a national seed. They'll probably want to to put at least one lower RPI team up there just to justify their own existence. So we'd probably need at least a top 7 RPI.

Silly question but surely the SECT will add a game or two to the resume and RPI prior to seeding, no?

Hypothetically lets say MSST, 5th in the SEC, ends at 5th regular season and "11th" in the field of 32, able to host, but sweeps through the conference tournament. Playing and beating UGA, A&M, Aub and Vandy, all neutral site Ws, solid Q1/ high-Q2 wins.

Would the committee see #11's postseason hotness and resume bump as sufficient to get them as a Top8 considering they just rolled three well-seeded teams, and a 4th invitee (Vandy)?

What do we believe is the difficulty of our last 3 series?

#8 Auburn > #10 MSU > @ #17 Ole Miss?

Could the road trip be the easist series?

Nice. Thanks OP! I've been checking every few days and glad it's finally up.

Similar to Nolan's predicted RPI, I think both are under-valuing us and the remaining schedule a bit.

I agree that 3rd in the SEC should do it. I would feel pretty good with 19 wins and really dang good with 20.

McInnis said:

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The So this says if we finish 6-4, assuming a win vs PV, and finish with a conf record of 19-10 and an overall record of 40-12, we likely won't get a Top 8 seed? That seems kind of brutal doesn't it?

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Nobody would make money wagering based on the accuracy of the needs report. It's not supposed to be Nostradamus, but it does give you a general idea of where numbers will trend. My recollection is that it usually underestimates where we will finish, when we are having a good finish to the year.

This team is special…...

The best is yet to come!

McInnis said:

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So this says if we finish 6-4, assuming a win vs PV, and finish with a conf record of 19-10 and an overall record of 40-12, we likely won't get a Top 8 seed? That seems kind of brutal doesn't it?

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Yah, doesn't make a lot of sense from an overall record perspective.

However, even with it being against really good teams, it means we'll limp to the finish otherwise.

Perfect example of no one will know until it happens.

Boyd seems to think we still have 4 games remaining, so I guess they did not update our late game yesterday. If that is correct, they seem to think we have no shot at a top 8 RPI since they projected we needed to close out with 4 wins, though as many have noted conference standings seem to be all important and if we finish in the top 3 of the SEC, then we should get a top 8 seed.

While we're 2nd in the standings right now, there's a good chance the day finished with the sips tied with us (we obviously have tie break), and Auburn/Bama/Arkansas all 1/2 game behind us. Which essentially means we would be tied with all 4 of those schools, but have the tie breaker against each of them.

Sips close out with mizzou (yuck, likely sweep)

Arkansas closes out @ Kentucky (yuck, likely sweep, but you never know with Arky, and its doubtful they could get their RPI anywhere close enough to even be considered for a top 8 seed regardless of SEC standings)

Bama closes out with tough series at home vs ole miss

Auburn has to face georgia which is great, but man, Auburn's RPI is going to be #1 by a long shot

Looks like we may need a sweep vs. Clanga to keep a top 3 SEC position, but 2/3 has potential to be enough.


Texas A&M

Remaining: 3 home, 1 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 10
ROWP: 0.664

Top 16:

0 home wins, 1 road wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 8:

3 home wins, 1 road wins

Luigi Vampa said:

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Boyd seems to think we still have 4 games remaining, so I guess they did not update our late game yesterday. If that is correct, they seem to think we have no shot at a top 8 RPI since they projected we needed to close out with 4 wins, though as many have noted conference standings seem to be all important and if we finish in the top 3 of the SEC, then we should get a top 8 seed.

While we're 2nd in the standings right now, there's a good chance the day finished with the sips tied with us (we obviously have tie break), and Auburn/Bama/Arkansas all 1/2 game behind us. Which essentially means we would be tied with all 4 of those schools, but have the tie breaker against each of them.

Sips close out with mizzou (yuck, likely sweep)
Arkansas closes out @ Kentucky (yuck, likely sweep, but you never know with Arky)
Bama closes out with tough series at home vs ole miss
Auburn has to face georgia which is great, but man, Auburn's RPI is going to be #1 by a long shot

Looks like we may need a sweep Clanga to keep a top 3 SEC position, but 2/3 has potential to be enough.


Texas A&M

Remaining: 3 home, 1 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 10
ROWP: 0.664

Top 16:

0 home wins, 1 road wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 8:

3 home wins, 1 road wins

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What road game do we have left?

If you're talking about the SEC tournament wouldn't that be a neutral site.

HoustonAg2106 said:

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What road game do we have left?

If you're talking about the SEC tournament wouldn't that be a neutral site.

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Like I said, looks like they have not yet factored in our finale game vs ole miss.

Luigi Vampa said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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What road game do we have left?

If you're talking about the SEC tournament wouldn't that be a neutral site.

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Like I said, looks like they have not yet factored in our finale game vs ole miss.

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I just read the bolded part, my bad

Luigi Vampa said:

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Boyd seems to think we still have 4 games remaining, so I guess they did not update our late game yesterday. If that is correct, they seem to think we have no shot at a top 8 RPI since they projected we needed to close out with 4 wins, though as many have noted conference standings seem to be all important and if we finish in the top 3 of the SEC, then we should get a top 8 seed.

While we're 2nd in the standings right now, there's a good chance the day finished with the sips tied with us (we obviously have tie break), and Auburn/Bama/Arkansas all 1/2 game behind us. Which essentially means we would be tied with all 4 of those schools, but have the tie breaker against each of them.

Sips close out with mizzou (yuck, likely sweep)

Arkansas closes out @ Kentucky (yuck, likely sweep, but you never know with Arky, and its doubtful they could get their RPI anywhere close enough to even be considered for a top 8 seed regardless of SEC standings)
. . .

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According to the report they need a win just to assure Top 32, much less worry about hosting a super regional.

If nothing crazy happens in the next 2 weeks, will the SEC get 12 teams in?

12 is the floor.

It will be interesting whether LSU or Vandy are given the benefit of the doubt if they manage series wins next week. LSU will likely be lacking in conference wins and Vandy in RPI compared to historical norms, but D1 has had them both on the cusp in its projections prior to this week regardless.

Hopefully we play well against MSU get 2/3 and the rest of the potential top 8 stumble and get hit at the SEC tourney

Can anyone post the raw numbers for 6-14 just curious how tightly grouped those teams are

Faustus said:

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12 is the floor.

It will be interesting whether LSU or Vandy are given the benefit of the doubt if they manage series wins next week. LSU will likely be lacking in conference wins and Vandy in RPI compared to historical norms, but D1 has had them both on the cusp in its projections prior to this week regardless.

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I would guess both LSU and Vandy would need to sweep this weekend to have a shot. It is possible for Vandy vs SC, but I doubt LSU can sweep Florida.

LSU and or Vandy as a 3 seed would be interesting. If 14 teams get in the SEC would be interesting every regional except 2 and could conceivably get 6-8 teams to Omaha. Although 5 is more likely with UCLA, GT and NC hard to beat in the Supers.

I don't see LSU getting in without winning the SEC tourney.
9-18 in SEC
3-15 vs top 25

58-7 said:

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I don't see LSU getting in without winning the SEC tourney.
9-18 in SEC
3-15 vs top 25

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13 regular season wins is usually the minimum and LSU can only get to 12 with sweeping Florida. More like will be at 10 or 11 so yes they need to win the conference tournament

58-7 said:

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I don't see LSU getting in without winning the SEC tourney.
9-18 in SEC
3-15 vs top 25

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Vandy also has to have a miraculous run in the SEC tournament. Losing to Mizzou this weekend was a nail, like it was a nail in our own coffin last year.

So Miss - Top 10 RPI? Ranking?

Yes, they have had a very solid year….. with big wins in the first half of season…
Oregon St, Bama, 1-1 vs Miss St and 1-1 vs Ole Miss

But no way they should have an RPI of 9 and predicted 10 after this week.
They have had no top 25 wins in over 2 months
They are 2-4 in their last 6 Tuesday games
Must be nice for your last 3 series to be…
UL-Monroe (26-26)
James Madison (20-30)
Geo Southern (15-37) (how does their RPI prediction stay at 9-10 with these last 9 games?)

Not comparing them to A&M. I'd have them ranked 15 with an RPI much higher

Unlike polls, rpi doesn't have a subjective element but is gameable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_percentage_index

LSU isn't making the NCAA tournament unless it win the SEC tournament.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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The Aggies really need Mizzou to reach an RPI of 120 or better to pad the Q2 wins. Without Mizzou, the Aggies W/L against Q1 and Q2 is 14-11; with Mizzou reaching an RPI of 120 or better (currently #122), the Aggies would be 17-11.

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With all 3 games being on the road and tu having an RPI of 4, it could very well jump 2 spots, even if they get swept.

Prediction time, one of these happens as the script has been written:

Sips #3, A&M #14
Sips #4, A&M #13
Sips #5, A&M #12
Sips #6, A&M #11
Sips #7, A&M #10
Sips #8, A&M #9

And if we get swept by Miss State we get slotted in as a 2 somewhere and... surprise surprise, we're in the regional matched up with the austin super regional

Whatever happens, we're going to Austin for the super regional

Of course, we could ensure none of those happen by sweeping Miss State, but thats a tough ask.

Luigi Vampa said:

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Prediction time, one of these happens as the script has been written:

Sips #3, A&M #14
Sips #4, A&M #13
Sips #5, A&M #12
Sips #6, A&M #11
Sips #7, A&M #10
Sips #8, A&M #9

And if we get swept by Miss State we get slotted in as a 2 somewhere and... surprise surprise, we're in the regional matched up with the austin super regional

Whatever happens, we're going to Austin for the super regional

Of course, we could ensure none of those happen by sweeping Miss State, but thats a tough ask.

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We will be seven and the sips two so that we can play again in Omaha.

Luigi Vampa said:

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Prediction time, one of these happens as the script has been written:

Sips #3, A&M #14
Sips #4, A&M #13
Sips #5, A&M #12
Sips #6, A&M #11
Sips #7, A&M #10
Sips #8, A&M #9

And if we get swept by Miss State we get slotted in as a 2 somewhere and... surprise surprise, we're in the regional matched up with the austin super regional

Whatever happens, we're going to Austin for the super regional

Of course, we could ensure none of those happen by sweeping Miss State, but thats a tough ask.

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Any doubts, just look at #2 Overall Seed 'sips and #15 Overall Seed Ags in softball.