West Point Aggie said:

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twk said:

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greg.w.h said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Geography trumps the S curve
If the Whorns get in as a 3 seed CS is one of the few sites they can "bus" to
the 2 seed is going to be a good team. &
What the Ags really don't want is a #4 seed that has a legit Friday night starter

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The top 16 are either regional hosts or #1 seeds and supposedly seeded in order last year. Past that travel costs (paid by NCAA) determine the #2-4 seeds for each regional and that does not follow the S-curve at all.

https://theathletic.com/4571397/2023/06/02/college-world-series-regionals-schedule-tv/?source=user_shared_article

(Sorry for paywall but best article from 2023 regional seedlings.)

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Absolutely right that the NCAA does not follow the S curve past #16, and that geography is a primary consideration. I would say that they do not slavishly go with the closest teams. They do seem to draw a line at some level of repetition, and will occasionally incur some additional travel costs for the sake of getting some fresh matchups.

Since we went to Austin in 2018, and this is the last chance (for the foreseeable future) to pair us with the sips in a regional, I tend to think that the sips will get sent to Olsen if they make the field.

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You mean because conference mates aren't usually paired in regionals?

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Because they CAN'T be paired in regionals

I guess I'm just asking why you are so confident. The data doesn't seem to support it



He is at 3 trips to Omaha in 5 seasons. a fluke flyball lost in the lights thwarted a 4th attempt which would put him at 4/5 seasons to Omaha. That's not good enough?

Sean98 said:

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West Point Aggie said:

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twk said:

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greg.w.h said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Geography trumps the S curve
If the Whorns get in as a 3 seed CS is one of the few sites they can "bus" to
the 2 seed is going to be a good team. &
What the Ags really don't want is a #4 seed that has a legit Friday night starter

---

The top 16 are either regional hosts or #1 seeds and supposedly seeded in order last year. Past that travel costs (paid by NCAA) determine the #2-4 seeds for each regional and that does not follow the S-curve at all.

https://theathletic.com/4571397/2023/06/02/college-world-series-regionals-schedule-tv/?source=user_shared_article

(Sorry for paywall but best article from 2023 regional seedlings.)

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Absolutely right that the NCAA does not follow the S curve past #16, and that geography is a primary consideration. I would say that they do not slavishly go with the closest teams. They do seem to draw a line at some level of repetition, and will occasionally incur some additional travel costs for the sake of getting some fresh matchups.

Since we went to Austin in 2018, and this is the last chance (for the foreseeable future) to pair us with the sips in a regional, I tend to think that the sips will get sent to Olsen if they make the field.

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You mean because conference mates aren't usually paired in regionals?

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Because they CAN'T be paired in regionals

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Did not know that! How did I not know that?!
/facepalm

BadMoonRisin said:

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I guess I'm just asking why you are so confident. The data doesn't seem to support it

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I almost 69 years old and have dealt with sips for most of my life. I would be shocked if they kept Pierceunless he goes on a run and makes the CWS. They are not good.

Got it, fair enough. I guess they can look at is that was his result in the Big 12, they have an abysmal year compared to expectations and they are nervous because next year they have to play in the SEC.

I just cant believe they would arrogantly ****can a coach with those results, but they are sips after all. Always looking for shiny new thing to desperately try out every 3 or 4 years.

BadMoonRisin said:

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Got it, fair enough. I guess they can look at is that was his result in the Big 12, they have an abysmal year compared to expectations and they are nervous because next year they have to play in the SEC.

I just cant believe they would arrogantly ****can a coach with those results, but they are sips after all. Always looking for shiny new thing to desperately try out every 3 or 4 years.

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I think the 0-2 noncompetitive run in Omaha capped off with us sending him home really hurt his with how arrogant tu is.

BadMoonRisin said:

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Got it, fair enough. I guess they can look at is that was his result in the Big 12, they have an abysmal year compared to expectations and they are nervous because next year they have to play in the SEC.

I just cant believe they would arrogantly ****can a coach with those results, but they are sips after all. Always looking for shiny new thing to desperately try out every 3 or 4 years.

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Keep in mind we are currently #1. Sips don't like when we do well and they suck.

BadMoonRisin said:

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I guess I'm just asking why you are so confident. The data doesn't seem to support it



He is at 3 trips to Omaha in 5 seasons. a fluke flyball lost in the lights thwarted a 4th attempt which would put him at 4/5 seasons to Omaha. That's not good enough?

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There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics.


Certainly this type of record through a coaches first six full seasons on the job would have been more than adequate almost anywhere except maybe Baton Rouge. However one must keep in mind that: 1) sippie is not reasonable and 2) Pierce was a lower expectations hire after Augie "retired." I think if t.u. got one of the guys at the top of their list he would have had more leeway from the fan base where Pierce needed to WOW them from the get go to win them over.

Pierce is a good college coach who has done very well wherever he has been but IMO he is not a good fit in Austin. Put him a mid-major committed to baseball he will excel, occasionally have his team hosting and almost always a team you don't want showing up at your Regional as the #2 Seed. I wonder if the whorns do fire Pierce if one of the two Houston schools would be willing to jettison their current coaches to hire Pierce. It might be a little unfair to Cruz Jr at Rice but Todd Whitting has been a bunch of meh for a number of seasons now at U of H.

Quote:

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He is at 3 trips to Omaha in 5 seasons. a fluke flyball lost in the lights thwarted a 4th attempt which would put him at 4/5 seasons to Omaha. That's not good enough?

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In 2018, after winning a home regional (they got a break in that we lost a starting pitcher to injury just before the tournament), they beat Tennessee Tech (who upset Ole Miss).

In 2021, they advanced to Omaha by winning a home super regional against South Florida, who upset the Gators in Gainesville.

In 2022, they advanced Omaha by beating East Carolina in a road super regional.

So, while they have been to Omaha 3 times in his tenure, their pathway to Omaha has been much easier than they had any right to expect. No one would cite Rob Childress's trip to Omaha in 2017 as being an indication that the program was stronger than it was in 2015 and 2016, and the same applies here.

On paper it doesn't make much sense to fire Pierce, but he's been perpetually on the hot seat ever since he was hired and the fans were disappointed with his supposed "resume". He also doesn't seem to be adapting well to the new college sports landscape by failing to utilize the portal well. Texas fans claim their baseball NIL isn't good but I'm sure if he had stud transfers on the line and all it took was a little more NIL cash they wouldn't have had an issue landing them.

Fairview20 said:

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On paper it doesn't make much sense to fire Pierce, but he's been perpetually on the hot seat ever since he was hired and the fans were disappointed with his supposed "resume". He also doesn't seem to be adapting well to the new college sports landscape by failing to utilize the portal well. Texas fans claim their baseball NIL isn't good but I'm sure if he had stud transfers on the line and all it took was a little more NIL cash they wouldn't have had an issue landing them.

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Sips are blaming NIL because they refuse to acknowledge their other deficiencies. All the things that mattered before NIL still matter. It is far more likely that sips are roughly equivalent on NIL and are falling short on facilities, coaching staff, fan base, etc. the bad thing for Pierce is the coaching staff is the easiest of those to change, even if that isn't the biggest problem.

We had kids lining up to come pitch here because Schloss went out and hired Max. Compare that to Pierce who decided to do pitching himself. None of that was because our pitching NIL was so much higher than sips.

The love our players have for our fans (because of the love our fans have for our players) is going to be another thing that has recruits and portal guys lining up to be in Aggieland. Contrast to sips bragging about leaving in the 4th.

tu's toxic elitism finally coming home to roost.

Scooley01 said:

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tu's toxic elitism finally coming home to roost.

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Unless they hire Schloss that is to replace Pierce.

greg.w.h said:

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Scooley01 said:

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tu's toxic elitism finally coming home to roost.

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Unless they hire Schloss that is to replace Pierce.

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Bahaha that's funny, tell another one!

Agree completely.

If t.u. does fire him, I've got to believe there are programs, not just "mid-major" ones, that will call him on the day he gets the word to come there. I don't know if they're ready to cut their coach or not, but CSF and ASU are having down years. Not to mention USC, UCLA, Arizona, and Stanford. All of those teams have won a title within the last 3+ decades (except ASU, I think, but they have plenty of college baseball royalty) and they're all going to end the season with losing records (except Zona).

trouble said:

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The sips might not even make the post season

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Right? I'm not sure I'd project sip to be playing after their conference tournament at this point.

Muy said:

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trouble said:

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The sips might not even make the post season

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Right? I'm not sure I'd project sip to be playing after their conference tournament at this point.

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The big 12 is such dog**** that they still are fourth in the conference.

Or Nebraska this year.