Why in the world would D1 predict that the Aggies would be a bracket with a red hot Louisiana team (don't understand them) and the Whorns?

You would think we would deserve (if everything goes as it is trending) a much weaker 2-seed in our bracket.

And can anyone every imagine when we don't have to place tu somewhere along the way? I mean ... can someone NOT have to create that match-up, or is it just too irresistible?

Just curious.

The sips might not even make the post season

Geography.

To generate clicks for ad revenue. It's not even May yet.

And its not only baseball, this always happens about halfway through basketball season, at least if we're at least decently ranked and didnt have to go through an insane number of final wins just to get in.

If we're anywhere close, they'll talk about us playing again.

It is a projection. Even closer to the end of the season they might be fairly good at what teams get in, host sites and seeds but are often comically wrong on what teams get sent to what regional.

I don't want to play the sips either, but with how they're playing, assuming they make a regional and that's a big assumption at this point, it will be a beat down.

Geography trumps the S curve
If the Whorns get in as a 3 seed CS is one of the few sites they can "bus" to
the 2 seed is going to be a good team. &
What the Ags really don't want is a #4 seed that has a legit Friday night starter

I doubt t.u. makes the tournament. Likely firing their coach

lsu and ole miss also out in current projection

Lots of interesting stuff, though none of it matters / too early.

First, I would take this bracket in a heartbeat.

LSU out. Their RPI is within striking range of making post season, but they'll need to make the SEC tournament first.

Texas in. RPI well out of range, but conference record gives them a shot of winning the auto-bid XII tournament.

Georgetown in. Since the first College World Series was held in 1947, Georgetown has had a baseball team every year and is 1 of 3 teams to never make post-season play (again assuming a team has existed every year since 1947 or earlier). Georgetown has never won a conference tournament (obviously) or a regular season title either. They are among the oldest college baseball teams in existence and quite possibly the most futile.

Are they though?

He won Coach of the year in his second season with a trip to Omaha
COVID year was borked so who cares,
2021 -- 50 win season, first 50-win season since 2010, Big 12 Champs. Omaha trip, 1 game from reaching finals
2022 - Trip to Omaha, best defensive season ever, best power hitting team in program history
2023 - Missed Omaha by 1 out (the famous walkoff against Stanford in the supers).

Seems like a pretty decent resume, even with the tough year they are having this year.

The team has quit. He is 100% done without a deep post-season run IMO.

While Geography definitely a major factor IMO these projections tend to rely on it too much. Now much of this has to do with what schools that are geographically near are available, whether they might be hosting themselves, same conference, etc. For example ULaLa might be a hosting candidate rather than a two seed.

When we hosted in '22 it was geography entirely with TCU, ULaLa, ORU. Other years not at all, example the '16 College Station Regional; Minnesota, Wake Forest, Binghamton.

Sq 17 said:

---

Geography trumps the S curve
If the Whorns get in as a 3 seed CS is one of the few sites they can "bus" to
the 2 seed is going to be a good team. &
What the Ags really don't want is a #4 seed that has a legit Friday night starter

---

The top 16 are either regional hosts or #1 seeds and supposedly seeded in order last year. Past that travel costs (paid by NCAA) determine the #2-4 seeds for each regional and that does not follow the S-curve at all.

https://theathletic.com/4571397/2023/06/02/college-world-series-regionals-schedule-tv/?source=user_shared_article

(Sorry for paywall but best article from 2023 regional seedlings.)

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Are they though?

He won Coach of the year in his second season with a trip to Omaha
COVID year was borked so who cares,
2021 -- 50 win season, first 50-win season since 2010, Big 12 Champs. Omaha trip, 1 game from reaching finals
2022 - Trip to Omaha, best defensive season ever, best power hitting team in program history
2023 - Missed Omaha by 1 out (the famous walkoff against Stanford in the supers).

Seems like a pretty decent resume, even with the tough year they are having this year.

---

He is done.

tu, OU, DBU, TCU, and Tech will mostly all end up being 2 or 3 seeds. Undoubtably one and possibly two of them will be in our region.

Personally, I'd be thrilled to get Louisiana and tu compared to DBU(2) and Tech/TCU(3)

One thing sticks out to me: When you look at W-L records, A&M, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oregon State, and Clemson really stick out. Significantly. I would not be surprised if all 6 are national seeds with the National Champion coming from one of the aforementioned.

in that D1 bracket… WVU as the 16 seed looks to have an easier Regional than us as the 1 seed

bulverdeaggie93 said:

---

in that D1 bracket… WVU as the 16 seed looks to have an easier Regional than us as the 1 seed

---

VT and Rutgers both have a higher RPI than Louisiana and Wright State is ~100 places better in RPI than South Dakota State.

ya i don't get into RPI stuff… give me that WVU bracket

TexasAggie81 said:

---

Why in the world would D1 predict that the Aggies would be a bracket with a red hot Louisiana team (don't understand them) and the Whorns?

You would think we would deserve (if everything goes as it is trending) a much weaker 2-seed in our bracket.

And can anyone every imagine when we don't have to place tu somewhere along the way? I mean ... can someone NOT have to create that match-up, or is it just too irresistible?

Just curious.

---

I talked and this over the weekend... Go watch the D1 Nerd-cast on YouTube and you'll see their strategy/philosophy. It has EVERYTHING to do with picking 1-16, then putting everyone else into a 2/3/4 category. They don't even pair the 2/3/4s into regions in the show. Sometime after production they just slot them purely on geography.

Tanner Jones, Saturday night, Olsen field vs the sips

Could be fun

bulverdeaggie93 said:

---

in that D1 bracket… WVU as the 16 seed looks to have an easier Regional than us as the 1 seed

---

No problem with that since we would play the winner of that bracket in a super.

from a fan's perspective...

I prefer playing strangers / new teams in the postseason -- seems more exciting

as opposed to the geography-friendly teams

see the 2011, 2015, and 2016 regionals as examples

someone needs to start the hold-Prager-for-game-2 thread

(Schloss will have a decision to make)

HOLD PRAGER FOR GAME 2!!!!!!

(Subject to change based on opposing lineup and starting pitcher)

But seriously, hold Prager is my default position until shown otherwise.

If we throw Prager against the 4 seed ( when we are the National Top Seed ) …….. never mind , I forgot we hired Schloss and got rid of the guy who used to do things like that .

I think Schloss held off the ace for Saturday 2 years ago.

RC was big on throwing the ace vs #4 seeds for most of his tenure (I think he changed it up in one of the last regionals we hosted). I don't recall it ever backfiring on us, but I know many on this board disagreed with the decision (myself included)

To me it always depends on who the 4 seed has as their ace. Most years I like holding your ace for game 2.

In '16 LSU, TCU,&Tceh all hosted not enough teams with in a bus trip to fill the regionals

OKCAGS said:

---

If we throw Prager against the 4 seed ( when we are the National Top Seed ) …….. never mind , I forgot we hired Schloss and got rid of the guy who used to do things like that .

---

We won a trip to Omaha in large part due to a #2 national seed not pitching their ace against a 4 seed. We won the Houston regional as a 3 seed. Davidson beat the #2 national seed, UNC as a 4 seed.

It's great when it works out properly, but baseball has a funny way of not working out as expected.

It really depends upon who the four seed is, and what your own team looks like. When you've got a good offensive club, and the four seed's ace does not appear particularly daunting, it's hard to waste your ace in the first game, knowing that you are throwing away the primary advantage you have over the 2/3 winner by doing so.

If you've got a really dependable number 2, and maybe aren't a great offensive club, then you probably ignore the matchup and just pitch your ace in game 1.

If the four seed has a formidable ace, then you pitch your ace in game 1.

But, it's a bad idea to not at least look at the matchups before you decide who you are going to pitch in game one.

greg.w.h said:

---

Sq 17 said:

---

Geography trumps the S curve
If the Whorns get in as a 3 seed CS is one of the few sites they can "bus" to
the 2 seed is going to be a good team. &
What the Ags really don't want is a #4 seed that has a legit Friday night starter

---

The top 16 are either regional hosts or #1 seeds and supposedly seeded in order last year. Past that travel costs (paid by NCAA) determine the #2-4 seeds for each regional and that does not follow the S-curve at all.

https://theathletic.com/4571397/2023/06/02/college-world-series-regionals-schedule-tv/?source=user_shared_article

(Sorry for paywall but best article from 2023 regional seedlings.)

---

Absolutely right that the NCAA does not follow the S curve past #16, and that geography is a primary consideration. I would say that they do not slavishly go with the closest teams. They do seem to draw a line at some level of repetition, and will occasionally incur some additional travel costs for the sake of getting some fresh matchups.

Since we went to Austin in 2018, and this is the last chance (for the foreseeable future) to pair us with the sips in a regional, I tend to think that the sips will get sent to Olsen if they make the field.

I can see both sides of the argument for holding your ace. Would be nice to save Prager for a tougher opponent in game 2 but also would be nice if he could give you 7-8 innings in game ` and not have to use the bullpen. Then you got Aschenbeck for game 2 if needed. If we start Tanner Jones in game 1 and he struggles early then we might have to use quality bullpen arms in game 1.

twk said:

---

greg.w.h said:

---

Sq 17 said:

---

Geography trumps the S curve
If the Whorns get in as a 3 seed CS is one of the few sites they can "bus" to
the 2 seed is going to be a good team. &
What the Ags really don't want is a #4 seed that has a legit Friday night starter

---

The top 16 are either regional hosts or #1 seeds and supposedly seeded in order last year. Past that travel costs (paid by NCAA) determine the #2-4 seeds for each regional and that does not follow the S-curve at all.

https://theathletic.com/4571397/2023/06/02/college-world-series-regionals-schedule-tv/?source=user_shared_article

(Sorry for paywall but best article from 2023 regional seedlings.)

---

Absolutely right that the NCAA does not follow the S curve past #16, and that geography is a primary consideration. I would say that they do not slavishly go with the closest teams. They do seem to draw a line at some level of repetition, and will occasionally incur some additional travel costs for the sake of getting some fresh matchups.

Since we went to Austin in 2018, and this is the last chance (for the foreseeable future) to pair us with the sips in a regional, I tend to think that the sips will get sent to Olsen if they make the field.

---

You mean because conference mates aren't usually paired in regionals?

Quote:

---

You mean because conference mates aren't usually paired in regionals?

---

Yes. Conference members cannot be paired in a regional by rule. We've been put in the same regional as the sips twice since going to the SEC (2014 at Rice and 2018 at t.u.), so one more time would be in keeping with the committee's m.o.