Baseball America: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/college-baseball-top-25/

1. Florida
2. Stanford
3. North Carolina
4. Oregon State
5. Ole Miss
6. Arkansas
7. North Carolina St
8. Clemson
9. Duke
10. Texas Tech

12. Georgia
17. Texas
18. Auburn
21. Kentucky

So last ranking, Texas loses a series to West Virginia and moves up in the rankings. Aggies lose to #1 Florida and drops out.

Same with D1 Baseball: https://d1baseball.com/rankings/d1baseball-top-25-rankings-may-7/

1. Florida
2. Stanford
3. Oregon State
4. North Carolina
5. North Carolina St
6. Ole Miss
7. Arkansas
8. Clemson
9. Southern Miss
10. East Carolina

12. Texas Tech
16. Georgia
17. Texas
19. Auburn
21. Kentucky

Problem this year with D1 is the overreact one week to the extreme and then underreact the next week or visa versa.

But it allows more teams to be in a out of the top 25 which allows for more discussion and click bait. The only thing they have said consistently in chat is that the SEC is the best conference by a wide margin this year.

Texas getting moved up after this weekend is expected. Moved up after West Virginia is laughable regardless of what happened above them in the polls

Will be interesting to watch especially D1 to see how they correlate to RPI after the next series. The Big12 is getting closer but there still is a decent spread for the ACC schools between RPI and ranking.

D1 says they forecast, so obviously they expect us to lose to Arkie and split with SC (or lose there too). If that's correct, our unranked position is essentially correct (low 2 seed).

BA has always been garbage.

Just win baby.

CapCityAg89 said:

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Will be interesting to watch especially D1 to see how they correlate to RPI after the next series. The Big12 is getting closer but there still is a decent spread for the ACC schools between RPI and ranking.

D1 says they forecast, so obviously they expect us to lose to Arkie and split with SC (or lose there too). If that's correct, our unranked position is essentially correct (low 2 seed).

BA has always been garbage.

Just win baby.

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If we lose to Arkie and USCe (1-2 ea) then there is a legit chance we're a 5 seed. That would put us at 14-16 in conference. Would need a good run in the SEC tourney to get into the post season.

CapCityAg89 said:

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Sean98 said:

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CapCityAg89 said:

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Will be interesting to watch especially D1 to see how they correlate to RPI after the next series. The Big12 is getting closer but there still is a decent spread for the ACC schools between RPI and ranking.

D1 says they forecast, so obviously they expect us to lose to Arkie and split with SC (or lose there too). If that's correct, our unranked position is essentially correct (low 2 seed).

BA has always been garbage.

Just win baby.

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If we lose to Arkie and USCe (1-2 ea) then there is a legit chance we're a 5 seed. That would put us at 14-16 in conference. Would need a good run in the SEC tourney to get into the post season.

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Disagree. Arkie loss on the road will be a net neutral RPI. SC at home is probably 10 spots. (Assuming 1-2 for each). A top 30 RPI team does NOT need any kind of run. As always, you have to look at the entire country and not just us and not just the last two weeks.

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I'd just like to know how many teams have gone 13-17 or 14-16 in conference and made the tournament. It's happened, but it's a pretty small number. I think D1 may be hedging on us with the possibility of us not making the tournament.

Wicked Good Ag said:

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Problem this year with D1 is the overreact one week to the extreme and then underreact the next week or visa versa.

But it allows more teams to be in a out of the top 25 which allows for more discussion and click bait. The only thing they have said consistently in chat is that the SEC is the best conference by a wide margin this year.

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Seems almost a complete 180 from D1 this year in the way they handle their business. Rather than rational decision making it has been "UConn hosting at Fenway!!" (pretty sure it'd be in Norwich's minor league park if they host) - Texas in the Top 15!! (cue losing slide where they never really fall in the rankings) - moving 1000 different teams in/out of the Top 25 to generate interest...

combine that with them putting a number of things behind pay-wall (scoreboard) and I wonder if they aren't struggling for money.

Obligatory look at today's RPI.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/rpi-live

1. Florida (1-2)
2. Stanford
3. North Carolina
4. Georgia (1-2)
5. Texas Tech
6. Arkansas
7. Auburn (1-2)
8. Florida State
9. Oregon State
10. Clemson
--------------------------------
12. Ole Miss (1-2)
15. Texas A&M
18. Kentucky
21. Texas (1-0)
32. Missouri
38. Mississippi State (2-1)
39. Vanderbilt
42. South Carolina
43. Baylor (1-0)
49. LSU (2-1)
53. Sam Houston State
62. Louisiana Tech (0-1)
64. Tennessee (1-2)
82. Alabama (3-0)
83. Rhode Island (3-0)
88. California (1-0)
107. Rice (1-0)
126. Long Beach State (3-0)
133. Northwestern State (2-0)
139. Houston Baptist (1-0)
141. Texas State (1-0)
155. UT-Arlington (0-1)
184. A&M-Corpus Christi (1-0)
195. Incarnate Word (1-0)
228. Cornell (3-0)
250. Stephen F. Austin (1-0)
267. Abilene Christian (1-0)
294. Prairie View A&M (1-0)

If we go 2-4 against Arkie and SC, we would also need to lose to Sam and lose to a RPI killer in the opening round of the SEC tourney to miss the post season. Our RPI is just to good to fall out entirely. It would take a major collapse. Not saying it isn't possible, but it would take much worse than 2-4.

On the flip side, I think 4-2, with a win against Sam and a couple wins in the Tourney gets us a regional.

W said:

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A&M made the postseason in 2013 and 2014 with losing conference records.

one year it was 13-16; the other 14-16

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Good to know, thanks. I knew it has happened, but I still think it's reasonably rare.

I'm also not saying we're going to get left out. But I think there is a chance we could be depending on what happens the next 2 weeks.

Sean98 said:

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Wicked Good Ag said:

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Problem this year with D1 is the overreact one week to the extreme and then underreact the next week or visa versa.

But it allows more teams to be in a out of the top 25 which allows for more discussion and click bait. The only thing they have said consistently in chat is that the SEC is the best conference by a wide margin this year.

---

Seems almost a complete 180 from D1 this year in the way they handle their business. Rather than rational decision making it has been "UConn hosting at Fenway!!" (pretty sure it'd be in Norwich's minor league park if they host) - Texas in the Top 15!! (cue losing slide where they never really fall in the rankings) - moving 1000 different teams in/out of the Top 25 to generate interest...

combine that with them putting a number of things behind pay-wall (scoreboard) and I wonder if they aren't struggling for money.

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Not struggling. Also not doing things for click bait. That UCONN info came directly from Jim Penders, their head coach. Penders told me they were going to try to host there. The plans didn't align, so they are now going to try to host at Norwich.

Carry on, Ags.

14-16 and I'm thinking we are a lock for the tourney but may be a bit (not too much) uncomfortable if the Ags also lose game one in Hoover.

16-14 we host. Even at 15-15, a good run in Hoover and I still think we host.

It's all conjecture but the SEC is STRONG this year and we played the stronger crossover teams from the east.

CapCityAg89 said:

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Kendall Rogers said:

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Sean98 said:

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Wicked Good Ag said:

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Problem this year with D1 is the overreact one week to the extreme and then underreact the next week or visa versa.

But it allows more teams to be in a out of the top 25 which allows for more discussion and click bait. The only thing they have said consistently in chat is that the SEC is the best conference by a wide margin this year.

---

Seems almost a complete 180 from D1 this year in the way they handle their business. Rather than rational decision making it has been "UConn hosting at Fenway!!" (pretty sure it'd be in Norwich's minor league park if they host) - Texas in the Top 15!! (cue losing slide where they never really fall in the rankings) - moving 1000 different teams in/out of the Top 25 to generate interest...

combine that with them putting a number of things behind pay-wall (scoreboard) and I wonder if they aren't struggling for money.

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Not struggling. Also not doing things for click bait. That UCONN info came directly from Jim Penders, their head coach. Penders told me they were going to try to host there. The plans didn't align, so they are now going to try to host at Norwich.

Carry on, Ags.

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Thanks for the reply Kendall. Any guidance on why A&M not ranked? If you are in deed forecasting, did you last week expect us to win more than a game against a team without a series loss all year?

In other words, we performed pretty much as expected this week - crush RPI 250 and 1-2 against UF. Why drop 7+ spots?

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A&M didn't drop 7-plus spots. A&M was 21 last week and is our first team out of the Top 25. I would say that's a pretty good spot for a team that's A) .500 in conference and B) has lost 2 of its last 3 series. Obviously, if A&M takes care of business at Arkansas, it will be back in. Also keep an eye on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are surging forward as well (that should be a great series in CS in two weeks). Another team, Kentucky, has also dropped two of its last three series, but the Wildcats have a better body of work right now (though they are very much trending toward). Series wins vs. Texas Tech, Auburn, Georgia (on the road).

dermdoc said:

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Serious question, what do you think the records of Texas, Tech, or UConn would be if they played in the SEC? And since Tech and Texas has horrible records against the SEC, why are they ranked higher than teams from the SEC? Especially in the case of Texas with a lower rpi.

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Derm, you should post that question here too:
https://d1baseball.com/chats/top-25-chat-may-7/

Sorry. I thought it was 18 to out. Wrong ranking.

Although I'd point out Ole Miss at 5 who has lost two of their last four series (neither against a team the caliber of UF) and are only 1 game above .500. Not that they aren't deserving, but that's a sizable delta.

So do you guys forecast in your discussions? Or at least measure against expectations? I fully expected A&M to go 2-2 last week so either they should've stayed the same or not been ranked last week.

dermdoc said:

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Serious question, what do you think the records of Texas, Tech, or UConn would be if they played in the SEC? And since Tech and Texas have horrible records against the SEC, why are they ranked higher than teams from the SEC? Especially in the case of Texas with a lower rpi.

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Texas Tech would be just a hair below someone like Ole Miss/Arkansas for me, and just ahead of A&M. A much much better offensive team than A&M, for instance, but the bullpen is a huge concern for me, and Davis Martin has really struggled as of late. I'm worried about those guys. UCONN would be an interesting one. I've seen about half the American this year, and really like that league. UCONN has a very good one-two punch in Tim Cate (first rounder) and Mason Feole. They've continued to win despite Cate being out for a while.

As to your SEC question, if we ranked teams based on what they did in the midweek, the rankings would look totally different.

Sean98 said:

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W said:

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A&M made the postseason in 2013 and 2014 with losing conference records.

one year it was 13-16; the other 14-16

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Good to know, thanks. I knew it has happened, but I still think it's reasonably rare.

I'm also not saying we're going to get left out. But I think there is a chance we could be depending on what happens the next 2 weeks.

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It's happened every year since at least 2010.

North Carolina was 14-16 in 2010.

Mississippi State was 14-16 in 2011.

Ole Miss was 14-16 in 2012.

Alabama was 14-15, Texas A&M was 13-16 and Miami was 14-16 in 2013.

Kentucky and Texas A&M were 14-16 in 2014.

Auburn was 13-17 in 2015.

Wake Forest was 13-17, Duke was 14-15 and Boston College was 13-15 in 2016.

Texas was 11-12 last year.

Derm on fire in this thread

Kendall Rogers said:

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dermdoc said:

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Serious question, what do you think the records of Texas, Tech, or UConn would be if they played in the SEC? And since Tech and Texas have horrible records against the SEC, why are they ranked higher than teams from the SEC? Especially in the case of Texas with a lower rpi.

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They've continued to win despite Cate being out for a while.

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And actually that helps my case as they would not still be winning against Friday night SEC starters consistently.

Edited to add that I bet at least three SEC pitchers get drafted before Cate.