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For all Division I championships, except men's and women's basketball, any team that is located less than 400 miles from the site of competition will be required to drive.

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That is from the NCAA travel policy document for 2016, so it looks like everyone is wrong. It does mention that the mileage is 350 for basketball only (who knows why they make it different)

Knowing our luck, we'll be paired with LSU.

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Knowing our luck, we'll be paired with LSU.

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I'm pretty sure we can't be paired with another SEC team and could only match up with a conference team if they were to win a regional as a non host

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LSU will be in the conversation for national seed.

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I don't think they will. I think the committee will evaluate the NS prospects of these schools, likely in something close to this order, before even getting to LSU:

(assume A&M, Florida, Miami, Louisville and MSU locked)

tech
Coastal
NC State
Virginia
South Carolina
Ole Miss

I really think the committee is going to try and put at least 2 non-ACC/SEC teams in the National Seed category. If they don't, I think the last 4 listed will be next. However, I don't know if the tournaments would change anything. That's my caveat.

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Texas Tceh is a lock. They aren't in the SEC or ACC and that's enough this year. Their resume is poor compared to the rest of field with literally no games against the rest of the candidates or locks and seven losses against the 100+ RPI teams. They'll get one because they won a weak BDF, not because they had a great season.
Coastal is a good candidate but again their biggest selling point is not being in the SEC or ACC. Several teams in those leagues have better resumes. Coastal has two impressive wins, at UNC and a neutral win over UVA. The second weakest resume on this list, just above Tceh.
NC State does not have a NS resume, particularly being from the ACC. This is a host but not a national seed. They are 15-13 in ACC play and 3-7 in their last 10.
Virginia I think the Cavs are the 3rd ACC team.
South Carolina has the weakest resume of the non-locks from the SEC. Series losses to Clemson, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Kentucky and A&M isn't a great resume. Their good series win is at Ole Miss which is very impressive but really not enough to overcome five series losses. Again this is a host, not a national seed.
Ole Miss has the strongest resume on this list. A series wins over #1 Louisville and #9 LSU are good and the only series losses are to South Carolina, Mississippi State and A&M. Head to head aside this is a better resume than SC. This is the 4th SEC team if there are four. Biggest knock is being in a state that's already getting a national seed. Florida and Texas are getting two each but will they give two to Mississippi?
LSU wasn't on your list, in fact your list was made to argue against the Tigers. Series losses to Bama, A&M, MSU and OM would seem to support that notion so I won't argue they deserve one but series wins against Vanderbilt and the Florida are going to bring them into the discussion. They have a better resume than does NC State, Coastal and Texas Tceh.

I'm thinking

A&M
Florida
Miami
Louisville
MSU
Tceh
UVA
Ole Miss/South Carolina

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LSU will be in the conversation for national seed.

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I don't think they will. I think the committee will evaluate the NS prospects of these schools, likely in something close to this order, before even getting to LSU:

(assume A&M, Florida, Miami, Louisville and MSU locked)

tech
Coastal
NC State
Virginia
South Carolina
Ole Miss

I really think the committee is going to try and put at least 2 non-ACC/SEC teams in the National Seed category. If they don't, I think the last 4 listed will be next. However, I don't know if the tournaments would change anything. That's my caveat.

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Texas Tceh is a lock. They aren't in the SEC or ACC and that's enough this year. Their resume is poor compared to the rest of field with literally no games against the rest of the candidates or locks and seven losses against the 100+ RPI teams. They'll get one because they won a weak BDF, not because they had a great season.
Coastal is a good candidate but again their biggest selling point is not being in the SEC or ACC. Several teams in those leagues have better resumes. Coastal has two impressive wins, at UNC and a neutral win over UVA. The second weakest resume on this list, just above Tceh.
NC State does not have a NS resume, particularly being from the ACC. This is a host but not a national seed. They are 15-13 in ACC play and 3-7 in their last 10.
Virginia I think the Cavs are the 3rd ACC team.
South Carolina has the weakest resume of the non-locks from the SEC. Series losses to Clemson, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Kentucky and A&M isn't a great resume. Their good series win is at Ole Miss which is very impressive but really not enough to overcome five series losses. Again this is a host, not a national seed.
Ole Miss has the strongest resume on this list. A series wins over #1 Louisville and #9 LSU are good and the only series losses are to South Carolina, Mississippi State and A&M. Head to head aside this is a better resume than SC. This is the 4th SEC team if there are four. Biggest knock is being in a state that's already getting a national seed. Florida and Texas are getting two each but will they give two to Mississippi?
LSU wasn't on your list, in fact your list was made to argue against the Tigers. Series losses to Bama, A&M, MSU and OM would seem to support that notion so I won't argue they deserve one but series wins against Vanderbilt and the Florida are going to bring them into the discussion. They have a better resume than does NC State, Coastal and Texas Tceh.

I'm thinking

A&M
Florida
Miami
Louisville
MSU
Tceh
UVA
Ole Miss/South Carolina

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The SEC tournament may shuffle this around a little bit, but I think you are correct with the SEC getting 4 NS. Whether Ole Miss or SC get a national seed may come down to which one does better this weekend. The only place I disagree with you is Coastal Carolina and UVA. They are separated by 1 in RPI, and I think the committee will lean towards giving it to a non-SEC/ACC team. Now, if UVA goes on a tear and wins the ACC tourney, then it may be a different story.

Right now, I have:

1. A&M
2. UL
3. Florida
4. Miami
5. MSU
6. Tceh
7. Ole Miss/SC
8. Coastal Carolina

I wouldn't argue with any of that. The crazy thing is that the ACC has the higher conference RPI of the two so for them to only get 2 NS while the SEC gets four I think is a tough sell. That actually makes me think we might see OM/SC bumped for UVA. Reading one of the other threads after I posted that I actually think SC has the weakest resume in the SEC with only one great series win and five series losses.

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I wouldn't argue with any of that. The crazy thing is that the ACC has the higher conference RPI of the two so for them to only get 2 NS while the SEC gets four I think is a tough sell. That actually makes me think we might see OM/SC bumped for UVA. Reading one of the other threads after I posted that I actually think SC has the weakest resume in the SEC with only one great series win and five series losses.

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Good point - they may give UVA the nod over Ole Miss/SC and end up with 3 from each conference. Then add in Tceh and Coastal to make 8. I'm just glad the Ags took care of business against SC and Ole Miss, so we're not in the debate for the 7/8 seed. That's where we were last year (apparently) and ended up on the short end of the stick (thanks again Hyman).

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NC State does not have a NS resume, particularly being from the ACC. This is a host but not a national seed. They are 15-13 in ACC play and 3-7 in their last 10.

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They probably don't have one compared to some SEC schools, but I'm suggesting that I don't think the committee is going to put more than 6 SEC/ACC teams. Right now, I think most of us agree there are 5 for sure: A&M, Miami, Florida, Louisville, and MSU. I think tech and Coastal make up the non-cartel teams, so that leaves UVa and NCState -- and the margin between the 2 is much closer than you might think. NCState has a better RPI, better SOS, better series record, and better 26-50 record and a head to head series win. Meanwhile, they have about the same 1-25 and 51-100 record, only slightly worse overall record, and only slightly worse conference series record.

The last 10 you speak of was a single loss in a series win vs. Duke, sweeps by Louisville and Clemson (one national seed and another host), and a single loss in a series win vs. UNC. Of those losses, 2 were by 1 run and 2 were by 2 runs. They may not be playing as well as they were, but it isn't like they've completely tanked.

Virginia has gone 9-1 against baseball powerhouses Virginia Tech, Pitt, as well as a series win vs. a good Georgia Tech team (who NC State also won a series against). They also lost their series to NC State (at UVa), lost the series to Louisville and didn't play Clemson.

If you want to add all that up and STILL put Virginia ahead of NC State, that's fine. But my point is that you can't say NC State doesn't have the resume for a national seed but Virginia does. They are both, at worst, extremely close.

If you want to compare these 2 to Ole Miss and South Carolina, go for it. I just don't think we will see more than 3 NS from each conference.