Lose the Saturday night game and you need 3 more wins, not 2.
quote:Yep you're correct. Read what I meant, not what I wrote!
Lose the Saturday night game and you need 3 more wins, not 2.
quote:Is this official now?
Kent it is.
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So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.
quote:True. I think a few of the guys are better than they have shown as well it's just the defense has done them no favors.quote:
So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.
If we start 2-0 we have a stable of arms while our opponent is going with their #4. Even with our lack of quality starters we'll have the advantage.
quote:It could be like the 2011 regional where Wacha had to pitch the game 7 (albeit on a Tuesday due to rain). Maybe the rain could help us.
So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.
quote:I agree. Our lineup has rarely been shut down by a #4 pitcher this year, as was the case many times in years past.quote:
So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.
If we start 2-0 we have a stable of arms while our opponent is going with their #4. Even with our lack of quality starters we'll have the advantage.
quote:Yes but getting those first two gives you a huge advantage, just need to win three games. At any point you fall to the losers bracket, need to win four games (at least three in a row) with the last two games with your fourth & fifth best starters.
So you get the first two..you still have to win a third.
quote:assuming we're winning big...tough choice! I say quick hook but a case could be made either way
Better outcome... quick hook Kent after 40-50 pitches or let him go complete?
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Better outcome... quick hook Kent after 40-50 pitches or let him go complete?
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Let's say we're up 8-0 after 4. Do you pull Kent or let him go the distance?
quote:Pull him immediately. At 8-0, against such an inferior opponent, the risk is so much lower at that point, so you yank him.
Let's say we're up 8-0 after 4. Do you pull Kent or let him go the distance?
quote:yep in this scenario I say yank him
Let's say we're up 8-0 after 4. Do you pull Kent or let him go the distance?
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I would take the opposite approach --- let Kent go the distance if he can -- let's say up to 100 pitches. Don't use anyone in the pen if it can be avoided
quote:Given that they have only played 3 teams in the top 100 and in 6 total games, why is it so shocking that they have not won any games against the top 100? All 3 teams they played are regional hosts and two of the games they lost by 1 run. I am not claiming they are world beaters, but this information seems to make people think we can throw anyone we want and have zero fear of losing. I disagree. I do love starting Kent, thats absolutely the right choice.
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/schedule/Texas-Southern
Three wins above RPI 200. Best wins are twice over RPI 133 Houston Baptist. Haven't played an RPI Top 100 team since mid March.
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Post season games are never "give me" games. Ags will have to show up to win this regional. Can't sleep walk through it...
quote:If we don't hit, we can lose with any of our starters on the mound, however, if the offense does their thing, then any starter that can get off the mound giving up fewer than 6 runs can get the win.
Those of you beating the dont overlook TSU drum, I have a question for you. What percent chance do you give us to beat TSU with Kent starting? What percent chance if Martin, Simonds, Larkins, or Vinson?
quote:It's not just about winning. If we start a longshot pitcher and end up using four or five guys significantly to close out TSU, then we've gained very little by not pitching Kent--we'd be counting on him to win the 3rd game with little or no help from the pen.
Those of you beating the dont overlook TSU drum, I have a question for you. What percent chance do you give us to beat TSU with Kent starting? What percent chance if Martin, Simonds, Larkins, or Vinson?
quote:I get what you're saying, but you aren't exactly making it "mathematical" by using made up percentages...
We have no third starter though. Clearly Kent and Long give us best option of beating offensive teams (see Vanderbilt on Saturday). Our best shot to win regional is saving Long and Kent on Saturday and Sunday for Coastal Carolina and/or Cal. Even if we had to use Vinson for 3 or 4 innings tomorrow, we would have fresh arms out of the pen available for Saturday and Sunday. I still believe that if we start any of the other four pitchers that we have a 90% chance of beating TSU at least and would blow them out 3 out of 4 times with no worries about having to use our best pitchers out of the pen. Going back to Math 141 combinations and permutations this option statistically clearly gives us the best option to win the regional. No question. That is why I asked what others thought our percent chance was to make it mathematical.