Hypothetical: Leaving the SEC

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Maroon Dawn
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9:49a, 5/24/17
AG
Remember, this is hypothetical but it's also not impossible

We've heard that the B1G, PAC and SEC are positioning themselves to carve up the B12 here at the end of its GOR. Word is the Cal game convinced UT that the west coast is just too far away so they are basically out. The B1G only wants KU/OU/UT which is smart.

HOWEVER word is that the SEC strategy is to lure in OU by offering OSU, a move the B1G won't match and will put tremendous political pressure on OU to accept the SEC offer. Having both Okie schools would hurt us and our schedule a lot. They'd take our recruits and replace Auburn and Bama on the schedule. But Recently I've heard that they want to combine this with a similar strategy to lure in UT by offering Texas Tech to force UTs hand politically to join the Texoma 4 with A&M in the SEC (again I know how it sounds but it's a smart political move)

So here then is the question: If we are facing being put into a SEC West pod of

A&M
tu
tceh
OU
OSU
MU

....then my question would be, do we really want to stay in the SEC after such a massive disrespectful move that takes away every reason we even joined in the first place?

I'm not sure we're we'd even go as an alternative but I would not want to stay in the SEC under those circumstances
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DeepEastTxAg
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1:30a, 5/27/17
AG
Also, word is that A&M has an agreement with UF, UGA, UK, and USC to vote to block any additions from their respective states. Not gonna happen.
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aggiejim70
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In reply to DeepEastTxAg • 9:40a, 5/27/17
AG
DeepEastTxAg said:
Also, word is that A&M has an agreement with UF, UGA, UK, and USC to vote to block any additions from their respective states. Not gonna happen.
On top of that, I kinda doubt Arkie or Mizzou want anything to do with having t.u. in the SEC. Just for the sake of discussion, let's go back to the OP and say the two Okie schools go to the SEC. Wonder if OU would want to go through the SEC schedule and still play t.u. every year.

I'm not too worried about the sips, they'll be OK. They'll form a new conference ....them, TCU, UofH, Rice, tech,
SMU, UTEP, UTSA, Texas State, Tulane, Tulsa, Iowa State, K-State, New Mexico State, and they'll probably hold their nose and get Baylor. All the teams in the league will be beholding to them and they can call all the shots
The person that is not willing to fight and die, if need be, for his country has no right to life.

James Earl Rudder '32
January 31, 1945
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MaxPower
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7:12p, 5/28/17
Okie is the only real possibility. tu is too much headache and no other chicken little conference programs are worth a crap. For OU, they would have to find a way to unchain themselves from okie lite.

The other program will no doubt come from North Carolina or Virginia. I think the conference would prefer both programs come from the east.
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dog
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In reply to MaxPower • 9:57p, 5/29/17
AG
MaxPower said:
Okie is the only real possibility. tu is too much headache and no other chicken little conference programs are worth a crap. For OU, they would have to find a way to unchain themselves from okie lite.

The other program will no doubt come from North Carolina or Virginia. I think the conference would prefer both programs come from the east.
Don't think LSU, Ark or Mizzou would vote for OU. A&M obviously not.
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 5:54a, 6/2/17
AG
Maroon Dawn said:
Remember, this is hypothetical but it's also not impossible

We've heard that the B1G, PAC and SEC are positioning themselves to carve up the B12 here at the end of its GOR. Word is the Cal game convinced UT that the west coast is just too far away so they are basically out. The B1G only wants KU/OU/UT which is smart.

HOWEVER word is that the SEC strategy is to lure in OU by offering OSU, a move the B1G won't match and will put tremendous political pressure on OU to accept the SEC offer. Having both Okie schools would hurt us and our schedule a lot. They'd take our recruits and replace Auburn and Bama on the schedule. But Recently I've heard that they want to combine this with a similar strategy to lure in UT by offering Texas Tech to force UTs hand politically to join the Texoma 4 with A&M in the SEC (again I know how it sounds but it's a smart political move)

So here then is the question: If we are facing being put into a SEC West pod of

A&M
tu
tceh
OU
OSU
MU

....then my question would be, do we really want to stay in the SEC after such a massive disrespectful move that takes away every reason we even joined in the first place?

I'm not sure we're we'd even go as an alternative but I would not want to stay in the SEC under those circumstances


Those are not what I would call solid sources or references, not do I believe they have any basis in reality

Also, your scenarios, while not impossible, are not going to happen.. not a chance
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BESCo91
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12:49p, 6/2/17
AG
tu will never be admitted to the SEC ..... ever.

Way too many 'No' votes:
- The A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou contingent.
- The Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky contingent.

The only Big12 school that concerns me regarding possible admittance to the SEC at some future date is OU.
- The A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou contingent would all still vote 'No', but that may not be enough.
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dog
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In reply to BESCo91 • 2:51p, 6/2/17
AG
BESCo91 said:
tu will never be admitted to the SEC ..... ever.

Way too many 'No' votes:
- The A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou contingent.
- The Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky contingent.

The only Big12 school that concerns me regarding possible admittance to the SEC at some future date is OU.
- The A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou contingent would all still vote 'No', but that may not be enough.
Those 4 votes would be enough to keep OU out. Takes 75% vote to admit a new member.
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BESCo91
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In reply to dog • 2:58p, 6/2/17
AG
dog said:
BESCo91 said:
tu will never be admitted to the SEC ..... ever.

Way too many 'No' votes:
- The A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou contingent.
- The Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky contingent.

The only Big12 school that concerns me regarding possible admittance to the SEC at some future date is OU.
- The A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Mizzou contingent would all still vote 'No', but that may not be enough.
Those 4 votes would be enough to keep OU out. Takes 75% vote to admit a new member.
I know that's the current rule .... but rules can be changed and pressure can be exerted .... that's all I am saying.
Believe me, I hope that the 75% never changes!

Who knows, maybe the 'only one SEC school in my state' faction would join and vote 'No' against OU as well .... in order to have a big favor owed to them should they need it someday.

Personally, I don't think the SEC or B1G has any interest expanding whatsoever ..... even when/if the Big12 implodes.
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wbt5845
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 6:32p, 6/3/17
AG
How I can tell you've been listening to a sip....

Maroon Dawn said:
We've heard that the B1G, PAC and SEC are positioning themselves to carve up the B12 here at the end of its GOR. Word is the Cal game convinced UT that the west coast is just too far away so they are basically out. The B1G only wants KU/OU/UT which is smart.


Maroon Dawn said:
Recently I've heard that they want to combine this with a similar strategy to lure in UT by offering Texas Tech to force UTs hand politically to join the Texoma 4 with A&M in the SEC (again I know how it sounds but it's a smart political move)


I'll ask you the same thing I ask everyone who spins these fantastical scenarios - what monetary motive could there be for the SEC in adding OU, OSU or Texas? OU and OSU do not deliver enough eyeballs to justify an additional division of revenue. The SEC already gets full carriage rate in Texas for SEC Network so there's no monetary increase in Tier III rights.

So would Texas joining allow the SEC to renegotiate the Tier I and II rights? Why would it? Those rates are based off viewership numbers and the SEC already owns most Texas and national markets. So no increase in viewership means no renegotiation of Tier I and II rights. Hence it makes no sense to split the pie further.

One cannot simply say "gee it's Texas they bring a lot of money". They don't. The economic case is not there so it will not happen.
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MaroonMack
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In reply to wbt5845 • 12:03p, 6/15/17
wbt5845 said:
I'll ask you the same thing I ask everyone who spins these fantastical scenarios - what monetary motive could there be for the SEC in adding OU, OSU or Texas? OU and OSU do not deliver enough eyeballs to justify an additional division of revenue. The SEC already gets full carriage rate in Texas for SEC Network so there's no monetary increase in Tier III rights.

So would Texas joining allow the SEC to renegotiate the Tier I and II rights? Why would it? Those rates are based off viewership numbers and the SEC already owns most Texas and national markets. So no increase in viewership means no renegotiation of Tier I and II rights. Hence it makes no sense to split the pie further.

One cannot simply say "gee it's Texas they bring a lot of money". They don't. The economic case is not there so it will not happen.
If cord-cutting continues and ESPN loses it's chokehold on media rights (or parent company Disney isn't willing to let the Worldwide Leader spend billions defensively to keep rights away from competitors), then there may be a different model than was in place in previous rounds of expansion. It's possible that Google or Amazon could get into broadcasting sports by the time the grant of rights expires - that might change the game.

In an environment where the SEC Network "tax," the premium that ESPN charges cable users within the conference footprint above what it changes in other states, isn't viable, then it seems quite possible that the next round of conference realignment could hinge on big brands. Even if they suck, t.u. and O.U. are big brands - and a conference than can guarantee games between either of those teams and other big brands like Florida, Alabama or LSU would still be valuable, especially in a world where the total dollars in the pie are significantly less than what is available now due to cord-cutting.

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Snap E Tom
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In reply to BESCo91 • 3:50p, 6/26/17
BESCo91 said:
I know that's the current rule .... but rules can be changed and pressure can be exerted .... that's all I am saying.
Believe me, I hope that the 75% never changes!

Did you ever read RollTide on OR? Yes, there's a 75% rule, but the SEC doesn't really follow it. They like to do things by consensus, which means in practice, it's 100%.
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dog
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In reply to aggiejim70 • 1:26p, 6/28/17
AG
aggiejim70 said:
DeepEastTxAg said:
Also, word is that A&M has an agreement with UF, UGA, UK, and USC to vote to block any additions from their respective states. Not gonna happen.
On top of that, I kinda doubt Arkie or Mizzou want anything to do with having t.u. in the SEC. Just for the sake of discussion, let's go back to the OP and say the two Okie schools go to the SEC. Wonder if OU would want to go through the SEC schedule and still play t.u. every year.

I'm not too worried about the sips, they'll be OK. They'll form a new conference ....them, TCU, UofH, Rice, tech,
SMU, UTEP, UTSA, Texas State, Tulane, Tulsa, Iowa State, K-State, New Mexico State, and they'll probably hold their nose and get Baylor. All the teams in the league will be beholding to them and they can call all the shots
LSU can be added to the "no" list.
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Maroon Dawn
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9:49a, 7/5/17
AG
I notice nobody actually answered the question posed and instead focused on why the proposed scenario couldn't happen.

But it still stands

HYPOTHETICALLY

IF

The SEC took a bunch of B12 schools to get Sip and goon and stuck us into essentially a new B12 division

Then:

Would your preference be that we stayed put in the SEC or tried our luck elsewhere (and if so where)
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Spyderman
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4:12p, 7/8/17
AG
but I would not want to stay in the SEC under those circumstances
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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7:20p, 7/11/17
AG
under the OPs scenario where would we go though? i'm not sure any other conference makes sense for us tbh.

any higher up at A&M that is ok or allows OU or Texas into the SEC should be fired on the damn spot. if that person isn't fighting tooth and nail, and makin deals to keep those 2 out then they aren't doing their job. period.

A&M's best bet imho is pushing for 2 more schools to be added. But not two football rich schools. 2 schools rich in either basketball and/or academics. Name schools that bring one of those 2 elements to the conference but that can deliver the Ags a fairly comfortable win on the gridiron most years. which schools those are can be a completely separate discussion.

add those 2 schools, go to four 4 team divisions within the conference with maybe A&M, Mizzou, LSU, and Arky in one division, play your own division annually, and then play 2 teams from the other 3 divisions annually rotating. yes that would give us 9 conference games but it would remove having to play Bama every single year, and it would remove having to play the Bama LSU combo annually. and lets face it, its going to take a little bit of luck to not only catch both those programs in down years at the same time, but then to also have an up year going on our end too (putting us in the SEC title game).

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bamaoldtimer
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In reply to MaroonMack • 8:18a, 9/17/17
Your strategic outlook is spot on. The way content will be delivered in the coming years will dictate realignment. The SEC will be renegotiating its CBS agreement, In the early 20's. CBS will compete with some very deep pockets for prime time tier one games. It will in my opinion be an historical contract, making the SEC schools the envy of college football. You are absolutely correct that Google, Amazon, Fox, NBC and who knows else will fight for these Tier one rights. Cord cutting will continue and the current satellite and cable providers will have to change their business model. The internet streaming world will continue to attract cable and satellite customers but only in a limited capacity. You will still need high speed internet service in your home and cable currently, is the fastest method. However, there is a new potentially game changing delivery system being developed by intellsat and kymeta. This system will enable high speed internet over satellite without the need for a parabolic antenna This flat, pizza shaped antenna can be mounted on you roof, inside your car, on your boat, airplane, etc. This technology is being developed currently and will be fully deployed by the mid 20's. This will allow anyone to broadcast content and stream in high definition, I believe at a comprtitive rate. What does this mean for realignment? As fans, we will buy content that we want. I may still pay $125 per month, but it will be alacarte, and what I want to watch. Content will be the driving factor. Leagues will want to deliver compelling content to the networks. Espn etc will be forced to bid against others with much equal or deeper pockets. Buying equipment and hiring personnel to broadcast games will be easy for companies like Amazon, google etc., or anyone else with deep pockets. Conferences will want members with eyeball draw. Texas, Oklahoma, etc bring that appeal. So, keep an open mind for the future. There will be enormous money thrown at the SEC when our tv agreements come up in the future.
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McInnis80
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12:59p, 9/19/17
In a dream world, the SEC would love to have UNC and UVa. in the league. It would give the SEC the two top state schools in the South and two large states, plus DC. But I doubt they would leave the ACC due to GOR issues as well as political issues of not wanting to be tied to the schools from Mississippi and Alabama as well as UNC being the top dog in the ACC. Also there are other issues with Virginia Tech and especially with NC State (same board) and Duke. As the Big 10, ACC and SEC are learning, it is difficult to schedule 14 or 15 teams. Think about doing it for 16. The Oklahoma schools don't bring enough money to justify 2 more slices of the pie. Texas would bring a lot, but with no increased SEC Network fees, would they be worth the pain to get the money? The Mississippi schools would be worried that Texas would start to either run them off or give them a smaller piece of the pie since they are not Texas. Ole Miss is probably still mad that their game in Austin was moved to the LHN.

The leagues which need to make a move are the Big 10 due to population trends in the Mid West and the Pac 12 due to lack of exposure west of the Rockies. Texas would be a good fit academically in the Big 10 but I can't see how professors at Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan would feel about having Oklahoma in the club.
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Agsuffering@bulaw
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12:17p, 10/3/17
OP, you have been a really good poster from what I have read. My disposition towards you is respectful.

But I would really question whatever street that word came from. tech and okie lite would probably eat more than they produced. I would question the B1G wanting Kansas for the same reason.


And to answer your question, we would be screwed under that hypothetical. We would have to stay and say goodbye to our advantage.
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DM44
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8:43p, 10/6/17
I would not disregard the PAC completely. The PAC12 and Big12 are the weakest conferences of the five.
After the LHN dies, they could combine into a 'Western Conference' and have a 16 team conference with West/East divisions. TV would love having games between tu/USC, OU/Oregon, etc.

The original PAC would get more exposure nationwide. This conference would satisfy the Oklahoma Legislature in not causing Oklahoma State to be left behind. Plus, tu could still feel like they are the big dog in this east division.

East

Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
Colorado
OU
Okla. State
Texas Tech
tu

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TX AG 88
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11:45p, 10/6/17
AG
Why anyone bumps this thread is beyond me. Let it die, please.
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huisachel
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12:59p, 12/3/18
SEC should go after KU for the basketball and Rice for the academics and a week off. Rice is losing lots of money now and SEC membership would cure that. It would give SEC schools Houston games and recruiting chances. And Rice could recruit better. They would still be a 2-10 program but a much better one
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Canyon99
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In reply to huisachel • 8:18a, 12/4/18
huisachel said:
SEC should go after KU for the basketball and Rice for the academics and a week off. Rice is losing lots of money now and SEC membership would cure that. It would give SEC schools Houston games and recruiting chances. And Rice could recruit better. They would still be a 2-10 program but a much better one


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pinche gringo
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In reply to TX AG 88 • 8:02p, 1/2/19
AG
TX AG 88 said:
Why anyone bumps this thread is beyond me. Let it die, please.
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Kill Switch
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3:45p, 1/30/19
I could actually see LSU and Arkansas leaving to join a new conference before i see tu and OU joining the SEC. Those two (tu and OU) are afraid of competition and I am starting to get the feeling that LSU and Arkansas are tired of losing to Bama and would think that if they join a conference with OU and tu they would be equal to the SEC in quality and an easier path to the playoffs. Probably be a decent money making conference as well.
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STACKED
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5:46p, 1/30/19
This thread is gross
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Phil*D-1*77
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10:14a, 2/21/19
Out of the mentioned Teams, Oklahoma might work. I do not believe SEC would add OK State.

I REALLY do not believe SEC would take tu - they bring too many problems.

If it ain't broke, don't . . . .
PhilB*D-1-'77
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APHIS AG
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8:19p, 2/23/19
The SEC was built by consensus. If only one of the SEC schools would have voted "nay" to our admittance, we would have never been invited.

The SEC knows all about t.u. They also know that OU really brings nothing to the table TV wise, which is where the money is.

If the SEC expands, I see ACC schools as possible targets.
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