Trying to figure out the whole conference television deal...ton a questions...

Can the SEC end it's deal with CBS, or could ESPN or another provider buy it? CBS has the best deal in television right now...and from the looks of it, it will be their last...

How much is the current ESPN television deal worth (not the SEC Network, just plain jane ESPN)?

Any rough numbers come out on how much the SEC Network will approximately be worth to each school?

eleventy billion?

CBS deal is about more than just the money.

You want the SEC to tell CBS to take a hike and have CBS go cut a deal with another conference and pick up oh I don’t know say a Big 12 game for national broadcast every Saturday at 2:30 or do you want the SEC to continue to get that exposure and continue to keep the Big 12/B1G/PAC/ACC marginalized in that time slot with regional ABC broadcast.

You want to give up one of the major the exposure advantages we have over these BDF schools in Texas?

I don't. I like the 2:30 tv time slot just the way it is and we are still going to make plenty of tv money with it the way it is. It's a win/win.

[This message has been edited by TGCGT (edited 9/26/2013 3:21a).]

I have read that the CBS 2:30PM Broadcast deal is considered to be seriously undervalued. This deal was a long term contract and still has a few years left. I think it will probably be renegotiated in 5-7 years. Right now CBS is not under any pressure to do anything. I guess we should just try to be happy with the exposure we are getting and hope we get some serious $$$ in the future. I believe that right now most of TV money comes from our Tier 2 Deal with ESPN. If I remember correctly the SEC Network is estimted to provide each SEC School an additional $10 mil/year.

The CBS 2:30 time slot will not be exclusive next year so ESPN could put multiple other SEC games on at that time if they choose to.

Clay Travis really nailed it down. Expect upwards of $50m a year from it.

Having read and heard Clay for years I find him entertaining but I also know he writes to drive hits more than he writes to say what should really be said. When he says 50 million per school it is what SEC schools want to hear and they spread his gospel and pretty soon all the Koolaid drinkers are at Jim Jones level. While my heart belongs to the SEC my brain is still the one reading the documents out there for a real grasp.

The launch of the SEC Network faces some real hurdles

#1 Unlike the PTN (100% owned by the PAC) and the BTN (49% owned by the B1G) the SEC will not own their product
#2 ESPN works for the benefit of Disney shareholders not for the benefit of the SEC
#3 The SEC has product and the B1G has eyeballs and this has not changed
#4 Carriage rate negotiation is a tooth and nail fight and average fans have no idea how brutal it is

With all this said last year the SEC paid out about 20 Million per school and the B1G paid out about 25 Million. To think that either would approach the 50 Million per school number is distant at best. Do the math:

14 B1G schools (with Maryland and Rutgers) x 50 M = 700,000,000 PER YEAR

14 SEC schools (with Texas A&M and Missouri) x 50 M = 700,000,000 PER YEAR

The B1G has population so I can see them getting to 30 or 35 million
The SEC has product so I can see them getting to 30 or 35 million

In all the money discussions folks forget that for every Ohio State or Alabama there are a majority of schools with anchor like drags on revenue and viewer demand. When you start asking yourself if Vanderbilt vs Northwestern games are worth paying their respective schools 50 Million each you should come to a more reasonable decision that this is plain crazy.

If not, don't say you were not made aware of the downside.

"The B1G has population so I can see them getting to 30 or 35 million
The SEC has product so I can see them getting to 30 or 35 million"


Please elaborate on this.

Texas and Florida alone have about 45 million people making up roughly 15% of the US population. The SEC states as a whole account for about 30% of the nations population. Not to mention the growing populations are in the South. The SEC has eyeballs and product, a combination no other conference can match IMO.

Maybe I'm hallucinating, but I thought we already worked this out: we agreed that CBS would pay the same money, but they gave up their 2:30 exclusivity (SEC Network may broadcast a game in that slot, too), and ESPN gets a week or two where they get first pick, IIRC. Having the 2:30 slot available for an SEC Network game was a huge concession by CBS, and will help greatly in selling the channel (which will have basically wall to wall SEC action from 11 a.m. Central until at least 9 p.m. Central, and sometimes later than that).

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Basketball & Chain

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"The B1G has population so I can see them getting to 30 or 35 million
The SEC has product so I can see them getting to 30 or 35 million"

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Please elaborate on this.

Texas and Florida alone have about 45 million people making up roughly 15% of the US population. The SEC states as a whole account for about 30% of the nations population. Not to mention the growing populations are in the South. The SEC has eyeballs and product, a combination no other conference can match IMO.

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Read this Link form ESPN for some basic insight

02 : TX : 25.1 M : SEC/B12 Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Heavy Pro Sports Competition
04 : FL : 18.8 M : SEC/ACC Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Heavy Pro Sports Competition
05 : IL : 12.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
06 : PA : 12.7 M : B1G Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
07 : OH : 11.5 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
08 : MI : 9.9 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
09 : GA : 9.7 M : SEC / ACC Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
11 : NJ : 8.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Heavy Pro Sports Competition
16 : IN : 6.5 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
17 : TN : 6.3 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
18 : MO : 6.0 M : SEC Monopoly : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Strong Pro Sports Competition
19 : MD : 5.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Strong Pro Sports Competition
20 : WI : 5.7 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
21 : MN : 5.3 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
23 : AL : 4.8 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage
24 : SC : 4.6 M : SEC / ACC Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage
25 : LA : 4.5 M : SEC Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
26 : KY : 4.3 M : SEC Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage
30 : IA : 3.0 M : B1G Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
31 : MS : 3.0 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
32 : AR : 2.9 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
37 : NE : 1.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic demand : Ultra Premium Carriage

Think, SEC = population foothills / plains and B1G as population mountain range. Here is a visual link

The biggest SEC states are not states the SEC has a monopoly in, while a single B1G state like OH = 3-4 SEC states. Whataburger may be a great hamburger but they do not have the consumer footprint that Wendy's does so Wendy's can sell more hamburgers to more people. If the SEC (via A&M) had monopoly power in TX the same way the B1G has monopoly power in MI and OH your point would be correct, but alas, they do not. Even in GA (where Georgia dominates Georgia Tech) they must compete for eyeballs. The city of Atlanta is full of alumni from all over the ACC who now live / work in the primary population center in the state.

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twk

Maybe I'm hallucinating, but I thought we already worked this out: we agreed that CBS would pay the same money, but they gave up their 2:30 exclusivity (SEC Network may broadcast a game in that slot, too), and ESPN gets a week or two where they get first pick, IIRC. Having the 2:30 slot available for an SEC Network game was a huge concession by CBS, and will help greatly in selling the channel (which will have basically wall to wall SEC action from 11 a.m. Central until at least 9 p.m. Central, and sometimes later than that).

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CBS demand is inelastic because they are limited in the spots to fill which is why they did not renegotiate with the SEC for a greater value. If you only have 1 game a week and you get first pick why would you pay anymore for 14 teams than you would for 12?

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CBS demand is inelastic because they are limited in the spots to fill which is why they did not renegotiate with the SEC for a greater value. If you only have 1 game a week and you get first pick why would you pay anymore for 14 teams than you would for 12?

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They aren't paying more, but they have given the SEC valuable consideration in giving up exclusivity. Consideration doesn't have to be limited to cash. In this case, needing to sell a network, that 2:30 time slot was more valuable to the SEC than a few million more from CBS would have been.

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02 : TX : 25.1 M : SEC/B12 Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Heavy Pro Sports Competition
04 : FL : 18.8 M : SEC/ACC Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Heavy Pro Sports Competition
05 : IL : 12.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
06 : PA : 12.7 M : B1G Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
07 : OH : 11.5 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
08 : MI : 9.9 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
09 : GA : 9.7 M : SEC / ACC Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
11 : NJ : 8.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Heavy Pro Sports Competition
16 : IN : 6.5 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
17 : TN : 6.3 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
18 : MO : 6.0 M : SEC Monopoly : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Strong Pro Sports Competition
19 : MD : 5.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Strong Pro Sports Competition
20 : WI : 5.7 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
21 : MN : 5.3 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
23 : AL : 4.8 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage
24 : SC : 4.6 M : SEC / ACC Split State : Elastic Demand : Premium Carriage
25 : LA : 4.5 M : SEC Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage : Pro Sports Competition
26 : KY : 4.3 M : SEC Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Ultra Premium Carriage
30 : IA : 3.0 M : B1G Near Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
31 : MS : 3.0 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
32 : AR : 2.9 M : SEC Monopoly : Inelastic Demand : Premium Carriage
37 : NE : 1.8 M : B1G Monopoly : Inelastic demand : Ultra Premium Carriage

Think, SEC = population foothills / plains and B1G as population mountain range. Here is a visual link

The biggest SEC states are not states the SEC has a monopoly in, while a single B1G state like OH = 3-4 SEC states. Whataburger may be a great hamburger but they do not have the consumer footprint that Wendy's does so Wendy's can sell more hamburgers to more people. If the SEC (via A&M) had monopoly power in TX the same way the B1G has monopoly power in MI and OH your point would be correct, but alas, they do not. Even in GA (where Georgia dominates Georgia Tech) they must compete for eyeballs. The city of Atlanta is full of alumni from all over the ACC who now live / work in the primary population center in the state.

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So, when you want to argue in favor of the Big 10, it's (1) a "near monopoly" in PA where you have two major conference schools, Penn State and Pitt, (2) somehow Indiana is a monopoly, with one of the nation's biggest draws, Notre Dame, residing there, (3) Iowa is a near monopoly with Iowa State there. Even now, Ohio State still has to compete with Cincy to some degree (they are still considered a BCS program for a year). And what do pro sports have to do with this really? The major college sports are rarely slotted against professional sports.

I'm sorry but this looks like something a network would throw together as a negotiating tactic, but when you inspect it closely, it's got more holes than the Titanic.

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Basketball & Chain

So, when you want to argue in favor of the Big 10, it's (1) a "near monopoly" in PA where you have two major conference schools, Penn State and Pitt, (2) somehow Indiana is a monopoly, with one of the nation's biggest draws, Notre Dame, residing there, (3) Iowa is a near monopoly with Iowa State there. Even now, Ohio State still has to compete with Cincy to some degree (they are still considered a BCS program for a year). And what do pro sports have to do with this really? The major college sports are rarely slotted against professional sports.

I'm sorry but this looks like something a network would throw together as a negotiating tactic, but when you inspect it closely, it's got more holes than the Titanic.

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a) Penn State has the lions share in PA, Pitt is not close
b) Indiana and Purdue have lions share in the state
c) Notre Dame is a national brand with their biggest viewers in the east coast NOT the state of Indiana
d) Iowa, with the bigger living alumni and better sports history dominates
e) Ohio State owns Ohio. If you are seriously arguing for Cincinnati you have never spent time in Ohio.

It is not a point I am arguing, it is just the reality. Pro sports enter the equation because it gives alternatives for the non alumni in a state to pick a pro team over a college one. The SEC dominates the state of Alabama because the only games in the state are college ones and the 2 primary CFB teams are both in the SEC. Sure Texas is a huge state but the market is so fractured that nobody has true monopoly power. Cincinnati Bearcats don't even own their own city. Bengals and Reds have their fans, Ohio State owns the city in football, Kentucky owns the city in basketball, and even Xavier / Dayton had a chunk because of the A 10. The Big East has already added Xavier and Dayton should be added soon so UC has to feed on the scraps. If Cincinnati was so powerful in the market of southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky they would not be in the AAC right now.

Did you even read the first link or look at the picture in the second link? Chicago is the 3rd largest city in the country and the biggest grouping of B1G alumni outside of the B1G footprint is the east coast. Why do you think they added Rutgers and Maryland? Neither are football brands but lots of alumni from the other 12 B1G schools now live and work in these two states so they can bump carriage rates in MD and NJ from maybe 5 cents to 50 cents or 75 cents. Nebraska had a football brand with no pro competition and a rabid fan base in the state so the BTN could go from 5 cents in NE when the Huskers were in the Big 12 to between a dollar and 2 dollars now they are on the BTN.

This stuff is not hard to understand if you follow markets and states. The longhorns have a brand with the most power inside the state lines of TX. Notre Dame is just the opposite as they draw very little from the state of Indiana and they draw very well outside the borders of the state. Pitt can not fill the stadium they "borrow" for home games and Penn State has the second largest stadium in all of college football at roughly 107 thousand seats.

Viewed as percentages it may look like this :
Penn State 75% vs Pitt 25% in PA
Indiana + Purdue 80% vs Notre Dame 20% in IN
Iowa 70% vs Iowa State 30% in IA
Ohio State 95% vs Cincinnati 5% in OH

ps, the Titanic only had 1 hole (granted it was a really big one)

Kentucky,

The question isn't just eyeballs but whether those eyeballs are / will watch college football on Saturdays. I don't know the answer to that question but it's an important factor.

As for the largest city in that footprint, Chicago has a high volume of domer fans.

http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/2013/09/am-alabama-ratings-point-to-secs-genius-in-importing-the-aggies.html/

Longhorn state

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when you inspect it closely, it's got more holes than the Titanic.

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The KY Mustang signature!

The Titanic only had one meaningful hole.