I quit reading when I saw Big 12 the most prestigious conference...

With ND deal & Orange bowl in playoff, the ACC is safe.

Maryland leaving Didnt mean squat.

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the deadman walking is not the ACC but rather Big12.

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With ND deal & Orange bowl in playoff, the ACC is safe.

Maryland leaving Didnt mean squat.

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I'm not here to beat a drum, but if the ACC doesn't act soon, they'll go the way of the Big East. Maryland left because the league’s television dollars simply aren’t on par with the remaining power conferences. At this point, they would need to bring in Notre Dame and allow them to keep their own football deal in place with NBC. Good luck with that.

The Big 12, on the other hand, is about to bank on some major deals with ESPN and FOX. That gives FSU and Clemson plenty of reason to come knocking. Suddenly the Big 12 doesn't need to stay at 10 teams for larger profit splits because they can renegotiate a larger contract with FL/SC TV markets. Plus it gives the Big 12 enough teams to have a conference title game again if/when we move to a playoff system.

I know a lot of people think the Big 12 is done because 4 schools left and the LHN is failing, but the contract money is there, and its good enough to hold it together (not to mention a strict grant-of-rights agreement that will prevent t.u. or OU from leaving anytime soon). I wouldn't be surprised if the LHN morphed into some sort of conference network with regional options.

Hate to say it, but follow the money: the four conferences with the best payouts will win.

[This message has been edited by Tressels Vest (edited 1/13/2013 1:40a).]

Okay here is a thought...if dumb, please forgive me. Been working midnight shifts.

Anyways, we all acknowledge the LHN is failing and will continue to fail. Not enough programming and viewers. So when ESPN pulls the plug (could be soon, may not happen at all), they will be looking to make a move to match the success and wealth we are about to have. I think they lower their standards and head to either the ACC, BIG or Pac 12. My guess is heading west. OU, Kansas and BYU join them and the ACC survives. They have Louisville coming in to make it 14, with Notre Dame a foot and a half in. Just need to find one more to add. I would guess they would go after Cincinnati or university of Ohio. The question is where does the SEC go? Ok state and west Virginia? Tech? K state? Or would the ACC get uconn and the one not picked (cincy or Ohio) if the sec gets virginia tech and UNC? I just don't know if the ACC is done. The big 12, if it loses OU and Texas, is done.

I can't imagine the SEC ever going after OK State, Tech, or K State.

Besides their relative lack of football prowess, they are not a cultural fit at all And more importantly - they bring NO TV sets to the equation.

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The question is where does the SEC go? Ok state and west Virginia? Tech? K state? Or would the ACC get uconn and the one not picked (cincy or Ohio) if the sec gets virginia tech and UNC? I just don't know if the ACC is done. The big 12, if it loses OU and Texas, is done.

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If the ACC loses UNC, then it's done. I say this, because there is no way UNC leaves the ACC otherwise. The ACC could survive without VT and NCSU, but there is no way the SEC can convince UNC to abandon the ACC if it's still going to be a viable conference.

The "4 conferences" model isn't happening. At least not in the next 9-10 years.

ACC makes $17mm per school a year in new deal.
Big 12 makes $20mm. But if Big 12 adds two schools, that goes down.

NormanAg,

Just like Mizzou isn't a cultural fit in the SEC? I was not saying it was likely that the SEC takes Ok State, West Virginia, Tech or K-State, just maybe take a look at them as they consider their options. If the SEC can't pull Virginia Tech and either UVA, NC State, UNC or Duke like they probably want to, those three (Ok State, West Virginia, Tech or K-State) are probably the best options for expansion if OU, Kansas and Texas are picked up. I seriously doubt the SEC would consider Tulane, Memphis, Arkansas State, Southern Miss, Houston, UAB, Troy, UCF, and USF because of exactly what you point out...no TV viewers and therefore less dollars to spread around more schools.

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Virginia/VT


Not necessarily a package deal. If UVA goes to the B1G (as I expect) VT comes over to the SEC (and hopefully becomes A&M's new permanent rival).

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I'm hoping the permanent "rival" bs goes away.

It won't. A few big rivalries in the SEC would fall off if the permanent rival is ditched.

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Big 12 makes $20mm. But if Big 12 adds two schools, that goes down.

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Not if those two schools are FSU and Clemson. There are 5,186,900 cable households in Florida and roughly a million in South Carolina. That's an entirely new market with a strong following that would require the network deal to be renegotiated... with a much higher payout.

For the record, the Big 12 paid a per-school average of $82.7 million in total athletic revenue in 2011-12. The ACC paid $69.4 million.

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Just like Mizzou isn't a cultural fit in the SEC?

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Spent much time in Missouri? I have - Missouri south of I-70 (St Louis to KC) IS a cultural fit for the SEC.

That's because that part of the state is Mizzurah...and yes, they are a cultural fit.

We saw what the BDF schedules looked like this year with their new teams. It was rather uninspiring. I imagine after a decade or more of this that the bigger programs will be looking for greener pastures. Outside of tu and OU there isn't a football program in that conference that the rest of the country gives a damn about. The ACC has the advantage of being on the east coast. The BDF spreads over a bunch of plains states with small #s of tv sets(excluding Texas). It's a regional conference and they were grossly overpaid in their most recent tv deal.

Adding 2 schools won't cause an immediate renegotiation in the contract. Which is why it's not happening now.

What is your believed date as to when this becomes reality?

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What is your believed date as to when this becomes reality?

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Weeks? Months? Years? It's hard to say when the next domino will fall, but I do believe these 3 things: (1) further realignment is inevitable, (2) it will happen sooner than later, and (3) Maryland's fate in court will predict the next wave.

All eyes are on Maryland's court battle with the ACC right now. If they get out without an exit fee, I think we'll start hearing rumors of Georgia Tech + 1 NC/VA school leaving for the B1G.

What a chicken**** copout

You are so sure it's happening, so when?

I've said not until after current playoff deal is done.

Wede01, some FIFY's on your post

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Maryland's departure as a founding member of the ACC is extremely significant because it proves that being the b*tch in the All Carolina Conference is no fun.

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The Big Ten will believe they are the most powerful and wealthy conference in the nation, the Big 12 will be the most pretentious in football, and the SEC will be the kicking a$$ and taking names

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Now on your post
Nebraska has been trying to get in the B1G for a century and on at least the third try they succeeded so good for them
Colorado has been a PAC like school for at least a generation so real big surprise there
A&M was in the pre SEC 100 years ago so they are just going back to where they were
Missouri to the SEC was the only real shocker but that was probably because the B1G thought they were better than the Tigers. Hopefully the Tigers will prosper in the SEC and be Michael Corleone and will "visit them soon" for some payback.

As for Slive signing the deal with the B12 I think it was a basic response to 2 issues :

#1) Negated the value of the Rose Bowl in future BCS structures overnight
#2) Paid Swofford back for not supporting last year when he said he would. I still feel the original "Champions Bowl" was to have been an ACC vs SEC deal as ESPN owned both and would have no need to allow FOX a piece of the action.

On the North Carolina and Virginia deal I agree getting those markets would be attractive but neither state has a bona fide football school. Therefore, I can see these possible scenarios to get the SEC to 16 :

#1 add UNC and Oklahoma = brand sweep
#2 add UNC and Virginia = academic sweep
#3 add UNC and Virginia Tech = market sweep

The problem is with each additional addition it means more cost and less incremental value. Look at the history of realignment and what it meant based on value

8 teams = regional teams
12 teams = bonus money from CCG (about 2 million extra per school) which means you have more revenue and fewer mouths
16 teams = 2 divisions or 4 pods and workable "playoffs"

After that you really think about the value of the remaining teams against the value of existing teams.

Alabama with a national franchise and 100,000 seating is worth more than Duke with terrible football and 30,000 seating. If academics really mattered then the B1G would be adding Harvard and Yale but they are not. At a certain point you have the laws of diminishing returns and more teams just waters down the product. Past say 4 conferences of 16 you are really looking at just 2 conferences of 24 (48 teams) or 32 (64 teams) and everybody else is just outside the upscale food join eating "wish sandwiches" from the other side of the glass.

Now on to your realignments

1. Big Ten adds Ga Tech, Virginia, and possibly UNC and Duke. All are AAU schools with a high reputation in research and academia. It would also give Delaney a continuous market from Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Ohio, Pittsburgh, and New York all the way through DC, Raleigh, and Atlanta.

Georgia owns GA and the SEC dominates the alumni base of Atlanta followed by the ACC. Making an island in another countries territory is never a good idea and I am old enough to remember the Berlin Airlift. Georgia Tech may look good in the B1G on paper but ask the guys at the corner store playing checkers and you get a feeling it will be a long term failure.

I can see Duke as addition #15 and possibly UVA as #16 as both are private schools (yeah technically UVA is public but if you spent any time there you know the real score) and have less southern loyalty. I think UNC to the B1G is a pipe dream the way the B1G dreams of adding tu to the fold. No matter how much the B1G may covet these schools they will not get them. Gollum lost "precious" to a Hobbit and got burned in fire. Buffalo Bill got shot for what he coveted and the Bible take the issue so seriously it made the Top 10 in the pre Letterman days.


2. Big XII adds Clemson and FSU, instantly legitimizing it’s football prowess again, and I don’t think they stop there. This might be a stretch, but with the demise of the ACC, I can see bids for Notre Dame and BYU to follow, allowing those schools to retain their current TV rights while giving them a BCS conference to play in (it will be vital to belong to one of the four BCS conferences as we move toward a playoff system). Though hard to swallow, if this happened, the Big 12 would become the ultimate football conference with the two most renown programs plus OU, FSU, BYU, and Clemson. What recruit would turn down an opportunity to play those teams?

Seriously, when was the last time Clemson was relevant? The Fridge is at least AARP age and is probably fast approaching drawing those Social Security checks. With 2 decades in the SEC the Cocks have moved from the back seat to the drivers seat in the state of SC and why would you want #2 if you are trying to be #1? tu never plays well with others and Bowden is gone from Tallahassee so what is the true future of FSU? Adding these 2 teams does not fix the issue of ditching the old teams. Until this happens the B12 will be a former shell of the past with 3 top schools in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and tu. FSU + Clemson < Nebraska by itself.

3. SEC adds NC State and Va Tech, expanding their dominance to all the southern states and the valuable DC market. UNC and UVA would be the preferred choice, but I think they won’t be persuaded once the Big Ten moves south. The SEC would, therefore, retain the position of being the most homogeneous, stable conference, with the potential to add Pitt and Cincinatti for additional media coverage.

I get tired of folks always seeing the SEC adding the #2 schools and frankly it perplexes me. Right now the SEC is the belle of the ball and you have her dancing with the wallflowers instead of the serious suitors? Slive taking sloppy seconds from Delany seems like utter foolishness and the folks usually spouting this are B1G alumni who have never been to the south for a football game. Sure they had to make lemonade from lemons back when they added Arkansas and South Carolina but that was when they were much weaker and did not have unbroken string of MNC's that is nearing a decade.

Think about that for a second! We are fast entering an age where kids will not have a conscious thought of a MNC won by a team not from the SEC. What is less obvious is the SEC is dominating all the other major sports as well (maybe not hockey but who watches hockey anymore?) so why do folks assume Slive will just roll over and not take the best of the best this go round? This is the S - E - C by god and try to keep that at the front of your mind before acting like we will sit around for the scraps this time. I said in the adds past 12 Slive would concentrate on academics and he added 2 AAU schools. My guess is if 16 is the next number they will be top brands, academic schools, and solid markets. Call me skeptical if the SEC adds NCST and VT after adding A&M and Missouri.

I appreciate you took the time to post but the SEC is for winners and your scenarios for the SEC need to be viewed from strength and not weakness. Slive may look old and slow but don't let that lull you into thinking he will will just lay down and die when he is on the verge of cementing his legacy. I have said on here many times I would love VT in the SEC but I am old school and this is the modern age of business and commerce. If the SEC goes to 16 I fully expect and out of the park home run.

The dumb thing about the scenario where FSU and Clemson go Big XII, while the Big Ten gets GT, UVA, UNC, and the SEC gets VT and NCSU is that, effectively, you would have the SEC facilitating the Big Ten's raid of the ACC by providing a soft landing for the #2 state schools in Virginia and North Carolina. That makes no sense at all.

The first question isn't who the SEC would take, but rather, does the SEC have enough stroke to block the Big Ten from taking the most desirable targets without making a move? The SEC is happy at 14 for now--adding any more schools in the short term would be a huge headache, especially with an SEC Network deal on the verge of being announced. The last thing Slive and company want is to have to start those negotiations over because the conference has added members. The SEC is also in no hurry to go to a pod scheduling system and have to pick at the scabs around the cross division rival issue.

If I'm Slive, it's not a matter of simply picking who I want form the SEC, but also, when I want them. I don't just want to decide that it's going to be North Carolina and UVA (just as an example)--I want to decide when they make that move, and to keep the Big Ten waiting on the sidelines until I'm ready.

UNC is the key piece. If the Big Ten doesn't get the Tar Heels, they either end up putting Georgia Tech out on an island, or they have to look no further south than Virginia (and if the Big Ten was really going to get UVA, why the hell didn't they move with Maryland? Adding Rutgers was clearly a back up move.) UNC wants to keep the ACC going, but, if it blows up, they will also want three other things: (1) to make sure that they move with similar academic schools (even if they move to the less academically prestigious SEC, the move will be easier to swallow if they take another academic heavyweight with them; (2) to keep the rivalry with Duke intact, if possible; and, (3) to find a soft landing spot for NCSU, so as to keep the political heat off them. The best way for this to happen is probably to sit back and wait until most of the current TV contracts are near their expiration, then for UNC to go to the SEC with either UVA or Duke (the one school that the SEC would likely make an exception for with regard to taking more than a single school per state), and to have the Big XII work with the SEC by further blowing up the ACC, taking six schools to turn the Big XII into a 16 team league (FSU, Clemson, NCSU, Miami, Virginia Tech and probably Pitt) with a strong east coast presence, then leave the Big Ten to take UVA and GT, or whatever northeastern ACC school they desire. If you get eight schools leaving the ACC, the remaining schools may have to dissolve the conference to find new homes, which would eliminate any exit fee issues.

[This message has been edited by twk (edited 1/18/2013 9:34a).]

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It won't. A few big rivalries in the SEC would fall off if the permanent rival is ditched.

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Well considering most of the "rivalry" games are anything but rivalries, make the schedule work and if those schools complain about a tough schedule too bad. They choose their path.

If the SEC goes to 16, I just can't see a way in which both the 8 game schedule and two division philosophy survive. Something has to give. The most logical solution is a 4 team, 4 pod system. However, NCAA rules would have to be altered to allow such as a system and a conference title game.

In other words, permanent rivals may not be going away but actually increasing.

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However, NCAA rules would have to be altered to allow such as a system and a conference title game

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No, you wouldn't have to change the rules--that's the whole point of a pod system--you rotate pods to change the composition of divisions every year, but you still have two divisions so as to comply with NCAA rules.

What you're calling a pod system is actually four divisions--that WOULD require a rule change, which is why it won't happen unless everyone else finds themself in teh same predicament.

Tilley, you wouldn't know a rivalry if it *****-slapped you in the face. Alabama and Tennesee is pretty big, same with Georgia and South Carolina. Florida and LSU is always big. Sure, not on the scale of Ohio State and Michigan, Alabama and Auburn, Texas and Oklahoma, but those 3 games above are typically big games.

I like how your seem to know so much about me. I'm a Florida fan and LSU is not a rivalry game. Auburn who Florida has played more than most teams in the SEC was done away with for us so we could add sc and arky. lsu/Florida may be a big game but it isn't a rivalry.

Please tell me more about my team though

[This message has been edited by tilley (edited 1/20/2013 11:16p).]

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I like how your seem to know so much about me. I'm a Florida fan and LSU is not a rivalry game. Auburn who Florida has played more than most teams in the SEC was done away with for us so we could add sc and arky. lsu/Florida may be a big game but it isn't a rivalry.

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This is correct. Ask any LSU fan if they consider UF a "rival", and they will tell you no. But it is a big game. This is why LSU is upset with the SEC permanent rival system.

TAMU/LSU is a bigger "rivalry" than LSU/UF. I'm fairly certain that LSU has played both Arkansas and TAMU more than they have played either UF or Auburn.

This is one of the reasons why us coming to the SEC made so much sense. Other than tu and Baylor, Arkansas and LSU have more history with us than any of the XII schools. We rarely played OU or OSU before the XII was formed. And the north schools? At the time Arkansas left the SWC, we had played them more than we had played Tech.

tu is the only true rival we left in the XII. And not playing them is their decision. If they ever restart this game, then we will be playing all our longtime rivals!