I think adding a team from Virginia and North Carolina make the most sense.

Does the SEC even need to expand to 16? If so, then I guess I would choose UNC and UVa.

FSU and Oklahomo

Depends on your goals. For money, Virginia & UNC make the most sense. To increase football prestige (and assuming you drop the reputed 'black ball' deal), add two out of OU, OK State, FSU, Texas, VA Tech.

Add Clemson and either FSU or VT to the SEC East.

Move Mizzou and Tennessee to the SEC West.

No more Big 12 in the SEC. Plus, I don't think OU can change conference without bringin OSU with them.

It may not bring more $$$$ to the SEC, but the most SEC like fan bases not in the SEC are FSU and Clemson.

I've compared stats on the 39 FBS schools not in the SEC that are in current SEC states plus North Carolina, Virginia and Oklahoma (states the B1G is not currently in, either).

The first factor I looked at was Fan Base Size, based on the Nate Silver research from the fall of 2011.

Vanderbilt is the smallest fan base in the SEC at 379,975 fans. The SEC should not take a school with a smaller fan base than Vandy, so that eliminates(in descending order): TCU (370, 459 fans), Southern Miss, East Carolina, Arkansas St., Louisville, UAB, Memphis, Baylor, North Texas, LA Monroe, La Tech, FIU, MTSU, SMU, LA Lafayette, Wake Forest, FAU, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, Tulane, Houston and finally, WKU at 70,821 fans.

The average SEC fan base is 1,190,783 fans. I would use caution when considering these following schools who would bring down the SEC average(again, in descending order): North Carolina (958,965), Texas Tech, Virginia, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Duke, South Florida, UCF, North Carolina State, Troy (381,102).

These schools would increase the average fan base in the SEC(descending, again): Texas (2,250,310), Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami, Oklahoma (1,201,587).

[This message has been edited by Agustus Caesar (edited 11/30/2012 11:54a).]

[This message has been edited by Agustus Caesar (edited 11/30/2012 12:00p).]

The second factor, and maybe most important when combined with fan base, was potential new television markets when the SEC network launches in 2014.

North Carolina is first at 3,132,013 households to potentially have dish/cable.
Virginia comes in at 2,699,173 households.
Finally, Oklahoma at 1,342,293 households.

From this perspective, the best targets are: North Carolina, Duke, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech,Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.

The third factor I looked at was football winning percentage.

The worst all time SEC team is Mississippi State, ranked 97th out of 120 with a percentage of .482.
These teams fall below that percentage, and should not be considered: Memphis, Arkansas St., FAU, UAB, LA Monroe, Tulane, Rice, UTEP, Wake Forest, FIU.

The average SEC team would be ranked 42nd all time in winning percentage. The following teams would hurt that winning tradition: North Carolina, Texas Tech, Virginia, Oklahoma St, Duke, UCF, North Carolina St, Troy, TCU, East Carolina, Louisville, Baylor, North Texas, La Tech, SMU, La Lafayette, Tulsa, Houston.

These schools have winning tradition that would improve the SEC long and short term: Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virgina Tech, Miami, Oklahoma, Florida St.

4 outliers, are USF, Southern Miss, MTSU, and WKU. they have racked up impressive winning percentages either against weak competition or a small sampling of games in FBS.

[This message has been edited by Agustus Caesar (edited 11/30/2012 12:07p).]

The Fourth and final factor I considered was academic ranking as published by US News and World Report. Maybe not the best, but a good ranking for this exercise.

The schools did not receive a public ranking (that I could find) and should not be considered: Troy, Southern Miss, Arkansas St., Memphis, North Texas, LA Monroe, FIU, MTSU, La Lafayette, FAU, UTEP, WKU.

The lowest ranked SEC school is Mississippi St at 160. These following schools rank below that and should not receive consideration, either: Texas Tech (165), USF, UCF, Houston, East Carolina, La Tech.

The SEC average ranking is 99. These schools would bring down the ranking and should be considered with caution: Oklahoma (101), North Carolina St, Oklahoma St, UAB, Louisville.

Here is the list of schools that would improve the SECs academic reputation: Duke, Rice, Virginia, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami, Texas, Tulane, SMU, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Baylor, Tulsa, TCU, Florida St.

Putting it all together, there are 16 top schools.

The lowest tier includes: Oklahoma St, Tulsa, and East Carolina. Tulsa is eliminated owing to its small fan base, and East Carolina is eliminated due to its small fan base and low academic standing. Oklahoma St survives as the lowest tier option.

The third tier of schools the SEC should consider includes two seemingly opposites: Florida State and Wake Forest. Wake Forest scores high because of new TV markets, unfortunately, their fan base is miniscule and their football tradition is non-existent; they should not be seriously considered. Florida State, on the other hand, has everything going for it except it will not increase TV revenue for the conference. I would suggest against considering FSU.

The second tier consists of a large group: North Carolina St, Virginia, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Miami, Texas, and Clemson. The last four will not add TV markets, but only one is too dick to be able to overcome that, Texas. I do not see them ever being offered and SEC invite. The other three, with their large fan bases, winning tradition, and academics may pull and invite even thought they would not greatly expand revenue for the conference. North Carolina State, Virginia, and Oklahoma, in that order, are the best candidates from this second tier.

The top tier of candidates, by all factors, is Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech.

The best of theses candidates is Va Tech:
1,325,282 fans, 2,699,173 households in VA, 22nd all time in winning percentage, US News rank of 72nd.

North Carolina almost doubles Duke's football fan base, and is 42 spots ahead of them in winning percentage. Their academics and TVs are a push.

I feel the SEC should stay at 14 teams until one of two scenarios happens:
1. the B1G or Big XII attempts to get a North Carolina or Virginia school
or
2. two or more conferences get to 16 teams.

The next two should be Va Tech and North Carolina.
Next on the list, if either school is unavailabe should be: North Carolina State, Virginia, Duke, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma St.

Dude, there's no word limit on posts. Why on earth did you break a single argument/point into half a dozen posts?

Great analysis, Caesar. My picks would be Va Tech and NC. Looks like the data you found support those picks.

maybe

im just

a selfish

post-padder

Exactly the same conclusion Clay Travis (OKTC) came up with. Well played!

Oops, Clay said NC state because UNC and Duke would never split...

I would go with Duke and Va Tech

Va Tech brings a good football team and a great alumni base/TV footprint

Duke brings more credibility to the SEC basketball market and gives solid competition to Kentucky to establish more basketball parity. They also look like a football program on the upswing and bring the NC market as well as strong academics. I choose them as the total package over UNC or NC State.

They said we would never split either.

14 is plenty.

Va Tech and UNC, its not really even debatable. The real question is what you do if Va Tech only joins with UVA or UNC only joins with NC St or Duke. I think geographically you have to go with North Carolina in that scenario (plus NC St or Duke are better candidates than UVA in just about any aspect).

Agree, 14 is plenty.

Wouldn't mind just staying at 14.

If adding 2, in no particular order:
Florida State
Clemson
North Carolina
VT

The SEC would prefer to stick at 14, probably at least through the current TV contract. It's not impossible that a move will be made, but it's not preferable.

If a move is made, it will be to add one school in North Carolina, and one in Virginia. The first, non-negotiable criteria for adding a school is whether or not it will expand the cable footprint. The SEC isn't likely to get backed in to a corner where they add a school that does not satisfy this criteria.

UNC would be target #1 on the draft board, and probably would influence target #2 from Virginia. You're more likely to get UNC if UVA is the other team invited, than if Virginia Tech is the other school.

UVA has to be the Big Ten's #1 priority right now, but the fact that they couldn't get UVA to come with Maryland should tell you a lot about UVA's intentions to preserve the ACC. They also have to be mindful that if they leave the ACC for the Big Ten, an SEC invite for Virginia Tech is all but certain (SEC will not cede Virginia to Big Ten). UNC is in somewhat the same position--if they went to the Big Ten (which will only happen if UVA goes, unless Big Ten suddenly breaks its self-imposed rule of only taking contiguous states) with NC State getting an SEC invite, but that probably isn't as threatening to UNC as the prospect of Va Tech in the SEC is to UVA.

The academic crowd at both UVA and UNC would probably push for the Big Ten, but the the fan base probably wouldn't feel the same way, particularly at UNC, where the t-shirt fans (read voters) are very much southerners (NC is the home of NASCAR, after all).

So, if you're Mike Slive, and you would like to stay at 14, but you don't want the Big Ten encroaching on your next expansion area by snagging the best two schools available in those states, and you know those schools don't want to leave the ACC, all you have to do, IMO, is tell the folks at UNC and UVA that you're happy at 14, you know they want to stay in the ACC, and you hope that works out for them; but, if it doesn't, they will have a home in the SEC. However, if they go to the Big Ten, instead, that will force the SEC to offer their instate rivals.

I think that if faced with such a scenario, UNC and UVA would be content to soldier on in the ACC until it starts to look absolutely hopeless. By that point in time, I would think that the prospect of putting their rivals in the strongest conference in the country might be enough to persuade them that they can't afford to pass on an SEC invite.

[This message has been edited by twk (edited 11/30/2012 6:50p).]

If it were up to me, UNC & VaTech.

It has to be UNC. I'm not sure who #2 would. I kind if want FSU or Clemson but UF and USC probably wouldn't be good with that. That leaves a Virginia school as the most likely target. I do not want OU, tu, or OSU. Is it weird I want UH to be considered?

#1 UNC + UVA
#2 NCST + VT
#3 OU + KU

Duke is a non starter because....

#1 No live fans (their "fans" are TV only fair weather types)
#2 Small private school in the age of big state schools
#3 Northern school in a southern state
#4 No football product
#5 Basketball beyond Coach K is not assured
#6 Nasty fans who don't really seem to understand sports

Yes, they are a great academic school but Tulane or Georgia Tech would get back in the SEC before Duke and that will not happen.

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Is it weird I want UH to be considered?

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Yes. they bring nothing to the table. no fans, no additional tv sets, no football prestige, no academic prestige.

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Agree, 14 is plenty.

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^
This.
We are fine @14.
However, I know that the pursuit of the almighty $$ will overrule my and others thinking about this matter.