Field of 68 is doing their show today so felt like a good time to kick this off and track throughout the year.
Already open:
Oregon - Dana Altman (retired) - Tony Stubblefield seems extremely unlikely to keep this job
These dudes have work to do this season:
Penny Hardaway - Memphis
Mike Boynton - Michigan - Similar to Stubblefield but has a much better roster to potentially win his way to the job
Steve Forbes - Wake Forest
Jeff Capel - Pitt
Porter Moser - Oklahoma
Maybe, but also does anyone care enough?
Micah Shrewsberry - Notre Dame
Mike Young - Virginia Tech
Tad Boyle - Colorado
Fans might want to fire them, but likely saved by their buyouts no matter what happens:
Ed Cooley - Georgetown
Mike Rhoades - Penn State - His buyout isn't all that high but Penn State's AD seems opposed to spending any money on basketball that he doesn't absolutely have to spend
Lamont Paris - South Carolina - This one is kind of hard to predict. If Shane Beamer has saved himself, then Paris is probably more in the crosshairs. Paris has a semi-high buyout because he signed an extension in 2024 for some reason. So SC is on the hook for at least $10M+.
Buzz Williams - Maryland - It's hard to envision this season, which looks fairly promising to Maryland, going so far off the rails that he actually gets fired, but this does feel like it's teetering on the track already. They'd owe him like $20M+ though on top of going through a football coaching search so it seems incredibly unlikely.
Have reasons to be optimistic going into the season, but if things go south could turn toxic in a hurry:
Mark Pope - Kentucky
Retirement watch: (in order of likelihood)
Bill Self - Kansas - I have Self on retiring-during-the-season watch
Rick Barnes - Tennessee
Mark Few - Gonzaga
Kelvin Sampson - Houston
Tom Izzo - Michigan State
Keep an eye on this guys this season to jump up if they have another good year:
Josh Schertz - Saint Louis
Bob Richey - Furman
Eric Olen - New Mexico
Takayo Siddle - UNC Wilmington
Flynn Clayman - High Point
Tony Skinn - George Mason
High major coaches that will be talked about if elite jobs open:
Mark Byington - Vanderbilt - This feels extremely unlikely because he just signed a new deal this spring and since Vandy is private we have no idea what the details are of that new contract but I've seen him mentioned by people.
Nate Oats - Alabama - I think Oats is almost contract prohibitive unless a school with deep pockets wants to just make a huge splash. Does Oregon fit that bill? Maybe? Kansas is Self retires?
Ross Hodge - West Virginia
Bucky McMillan - Texas A&M - Might as well and prepare for this now, if we're good, his name is going to get floated out there because of our national perception as a program and because his contract isn't worth that much (yet). I know everyone hates locking ourselves into big contracts with huge buyouts, but if we exceed expectations this year Trev is going to have a decision to make here.
Already open:
Oregon - Dana Altman (retired) - Tony Stubblefield seems extremely unlikely to keep this job
These dudes have work to do this season:
Penny Hardaway - Memphis
Mike Boynton - Michigan - Similar to Stubblefield but has a much better roster to potentially win his way to the job
Steve Forbes - Wake Forest
Jeff Capel - Pitt
Porter Moser - Oklahoma
Maybe, but also does anyone care enough?
Micah Shrewsberry - Notre Dame
Mike Young - Virginia Tech
Tad Boyle - Colorado
Fans might want to fire them, but likely saved by their buyouts no matter what happens:
Ed Cooley - Georgetown
Mike Rhoades - Penn State - His buyout isn't all that high but Penn State's AD seems opposed to spending any money on basketball that he doesn't absolutely have to spend
Lamont Paris - South Carolina - This one is kind of hard to predict. If Shane Beamer has saved himself, then Paris is probably more in the crosshairs. Paris has a semi-high buyout because he signed an extension in 2024 for some reason. So SC is on the hook for at least $10M+.
Buzz Williams - Maryland - It's hard to envision this season, which looks fairly promising to Maryland, going so far off the rails that he actually gets fired, but this does feel like it's teetering on the track already. They'd owe him like $20M+ though on top of going through a football coaching search so it seems incredibly unlikely.
Have reasons to be optimistic going into the season, but if things go south could turn toxic in a hurry:
Mark Pope - Kentucky
Retirement watch: (in order of likelihood)
Bill Self - Kansas - I have Self on retiring-during-the-season watch
Rick Barnes - Tennessee
Mark Few - Gonzaga
Kelvin Sampson - Houston
Tom Izzo - Michigan State
Keep an eye on this guys this season to jump up if they have another good year:
Josh Schertz - Saint Louis
Bob Richey - Furman
Eric Olen - New Mexico
Takayo Siddle - UNC Wilmington
Flynn Clayman - High Point
Tony Skinn - George Mason
High major coaches that will be talked about if elite jobs open:
Mark Byington - Vanderbilt - This feels extremely unlikely because he just signed a new deal this spring and since Vandy is private we have no idea what the details are of that new contract but I've seen him mentioned by people.
Nate Oats - Alabama - I think Oats is almost contract prohibitive unless a school with deep pockets wants to just make a huge splash. Does Oregon fit that bill? Maybe? Kansas is Self retires?
Ross Hodge - West Virginia
Bucky McMillan - Texas A&M - Might as well and prepare for this now, if we're good, his name is going to get floated out there because of our national perception as a program and because his contract isn't worth that much (yet). I know everyone hates locking ourselves into big contracts with huge buyouts, but if we exceed expectations this year Trev is going to have a decision to make here.
