6 or 7 seed, don't care, as it will be the particular matchup that matters more.

2 vs 3 seed- may be a big difference this year. There are some great 2s.

On other hand, I don't want the challenge of playing our 3rd game in 5 days for a S16 spot.

Tough call. I think a 10. have to go 2-0 instead of 3-0.



[ 11 seed means we'll play another 11, then two days later a 6 seed, then two days later a 3 seed.

10 seed means we play a 7 seed, then two days later a 2 seed]

This year the 11 is probably more preferable (if we avoid Dayton however!) to avoid Florida and UH. Remember, a 2nd round matchup with another SEC team is not against bracketing rules as long as it's not OU, tu, LSU. I also don't think there's a drastic drop off from the 6 seeds to 7 seeds.

With that said, the key is we still need to avoid Dayton. If a win over LSU plus a small run in Nashville consequently bumps us to a 9 seed, so be it. I'd rather that be the fate then risk being right on the cut line. (edit to add) Also everyone points straight to the 1 seed but doesn't bother looking at the difference between the 6 seed and 8 seeds in the 1st round. Now there I do think there is a decent drop off, Colleyville even considers the bubble starting with some of the 8 seeds.

Doesnt 11 mean we're in Dayton?

This year is tracking like there will be 1 AQ, 2 play-in's (L4 in) and the last at-large bubble team. If there is a bid stealer, then yes it will mean Dayton. My post is pointing at that last at-large spot that avoids Dayton.

Divining Rod said:

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[ 11 seed means we'll play another 11, then two days later a 6 seed, then two days later a 3 seed.

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Not all 11 seeds play in the play in games.

There's a couple of things here.

- They will try to avoid any regular season rematches if they can, it's just that priority is given to teams you play twice. Last year there were some potential SEC second round games, which is highly unusual, but there were also 14 SEC teams in the field.

- One thing to remember is that conference champions can't be in the play-in games. This matters for Miami of Ohio and potentially Santa Clara.

- Right now it's tracking that the play-in games will be 11 seeds, but if there are some bid stealers or some other shenanigans they don't necessarily have to be. In the 2024 Tournament the play-in games were 10 seeds.

MarcAg said:

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If we beat LSU, I don't think we will be an 11 seed

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Yes, because believe it or not, that would be another Q1 win.

Agree, I've been on this wagon for a long time. The First Four should be the last 8 at-large teams in the field.

But that's just level one.

Level two is the NCAA should force regular brackets on the conference tournaments, and then leave it up to each conference on if they want their regular season champion to get the automatic bid or their tournament champion.

It's absolutely stupid that some of these leagues have like five byes in their tournaments just to protect the better teams.

I feel like generally the lower seed is better .

Interestingly, the historic odds of winning the first game as a 10 or 11 (not counting the first four) are exactly the same, but your odds of winning your second game are a little better as an 11 (which makes sense.)

I'd have thought the historic numbers would be tilted at least slightly towards the 10 seeds.

Play-in sucks for travel, because it pushes back the available time to book airfare. Greenville is kind of my preference for site, so I'm hoping for that.

Texas can have the 10 seed, OKC, and UH in the 2nd round.

MarcAg said:

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If we beat LSU, I don't think we will be an 11 seed

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OTOH, I think if we lose that, we're out. Call it BAS, but I think the Committee finds a way to leave us out if we end up losing 8 of our last 11 (if we lost 1st game in SEC), even though they say how you finish is not supposed to be factored in this year.

Ya, I think a bad loss could create a swing against us. I'm not a tin foil type, but I don't feel like we've been treated well by the committee recently.

Quote:

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A&M is the type of narrative that's fun. Plucky new young coach and exciting style.

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Yeah, almost as fun as our team a few years back that had the mid-season swoon, then did a 180, became the hottest team in America, and finally ran out of gas in the championship game of the SEC.

that fun team got to sit out the NCAA. But I DO agree with you- this is the kind of team the NCAA should love to showcase in their Big Dance. And WHAT a backstory!

I think people kind of overrate how "screwed" we got in 2022. We had a good argument, but it wasn't exactly an airtight case.

Had we gotten in we were going to be like the last or next to last team in.

SMU getting left out was probably even more egregious. No chance they get left out now under that same scenario. Rutgers had a WAB of like 70 and SMU's was 37 but this was pre-WAB.

Give me the 11. You get a 6 then likely a 3. If you're a 10 and survive the 7 seed, you're rewarded with a Florida, Illinois, Sparty or Houston type matchup. All would be nightmares (UF we already know).

The Collective said:

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Play-in sucks for travel, because it pushes back the available time to book airfare. Greenville is kind of my preference for site, so I'm hoping for that.

Texas can have the 10 seed, OKC, and UH in the 2nd round.

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As someone who lives in DFW I would much prefer OKC, I know the committee will put us or tu there and would prefer to be able to go

I just want to get in and try to win a game

This season has been a success no matter what happens at lsu or with tourney seeding

But it would be a huge success if we got in and a monumental success if we actually won a game

This is a little inside baseball maybe but's an extremely good bet that the 2-15/7-10 pod that contains Houston is going to be there so that 10 seed spot is definitely in play.

The other pod that's there is going to depend on the seed order of Nebraska, Iowa State and Texas Tech behind Illinois.

Illinois is going to the claim a spot in St. Louis, so Texas Tech is going to need to finish ahead of either Iowa State or Nebraska or they're going to get kicked out west to San Diego.

But whoever ends up there is likely a 6-11/3-14 pod so that 11 seed is potentially in play also. It's probably more likely that it would be us or Texas if the 3 is Texas Tech than if it's Nebraska or especially if it's Iowa State.

Iowa St. would also go to St. Louis though, no? Unless you're yielding a spot there for like Kansas or Purdue?

11 would be better in my opinion due to getting the grouping of Nebraska, Tech, Illinois, Gonzaga, as a potential 2nd round matchup.

I actually think we're more likely to be an 11 than a 10 even if we beat LSU. Mostly due to having lost H2H's against other's projected in our area such as SMU and UCF, and splitting vs Texas.

Either way will be more than happy just to be in.

Yeah that's what I'm saying.

Houston and Illinois are taking a spot in OKC and St. Louis, so then after that it just depends on the seed order. So say it's (leaving out all other teams)

- Tech
- Iowa St.
- Nebraska

Tech would go first and get OKC, Iowa St. second to St. Louis and Nebraska gets sent out west. But if it's:

- Nebraska
- Iowa State
- Tech

Now Nebraska goes first and is in St. Louis, Iowa State is next and gets OKC, and Tech gets kicked out west to San Diego. In this scenario the committee is less likely to put us or Texas there as an 11 because it would set up a potential scenario where the lower seeded team is closer to home than the protected seed in the second round.

Now there are some scenarios where this has happened, last year there was a pod where 1 seed Auburn could have been playing 8-seed Louisville in Lexington, so it's not completely impossible, but they try to avoid that when possible. But Texas Tech is closer to OKC than either us or Texas so them being there makes it more likely that one of us is there too. If Kansas jumps any of these teams on the seed list the same applies to them as Texas Tech. They wouldn't protect Kansas as much as Iowa State or Nebraska because it's closer to OKC.

This is also not even taking into account the potential 6 seed which is also a factor.

Divining Rod said:

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Quote:

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A&M is the type of narrative that's fun. Plucky new young coach and exciting style.

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Yeah, almost as fun as our team a few years back that had the mid-season swoon, then did a 180, became the hottest team in America, and finally ran out of gas in the championship game of the SEC.

that fun team got to sit out the NCAA. But I DO agree with you- this is the kind of team the NCAA should love to showcase in their Big Dance. And WHAT a backstory!

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Dude. Nobody wanted to see us brick shots and rebound while forcing a ton of fouls.

Being an 11 means we are probably sweating the selection show and have a possibility of getting sent to Dayton

I'll take the 10

Using this season as an example if we lose to LSU we are probably an 11 and that is giving the committee the chance to Scr** you over

Conferences can already pick which team is their auto bid. Theres nothing stopping them other than some tournament ticket sales and the ESPN money (which is almost solely for the championship game in small conferences). So really they are kinda having their cake and eating it too, by making sure the best team makes the title game for TV and also not have it be meaningless. Forcing them into the old style wont change their decision, a meaningless title game doesn't make them any extra money because ESPN would never broadcast it.. Teams like us benefit from (mid majors+) changing their bracket to minimize bid thieves

bobinator said:

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I think people kind of overrate how "screwed" we got in 2022. We had a good argument, but it wasn't exactly an airtight case.

Had we gotten in we were going to be like the last or next to last team in.

SMU getting left out was probably even more egregious. No chance they get left out now under that same scenario. Rutgers had a WAB of like 70 and SMU's was 37 but this was pre-WAB.

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Shut your mouf

dp

halfastros81 said:

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I feel like generally the lower seed is better .

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Anything worse than 8 or 9 is preferable. Data shows 8 & 9 advance to the sweet 16 LESS often than the 10, 11, or 12 seeds.

Iv'e heard that before and have no doubt it's true . Play well vs LSU and in the SEC tourney and the chips are going to fall where they fall . I don't know that it's even possible but I'd love to see us play well enough over the next week and a half to get a single digit seed . Irrespective of seeding we'll run into really good teams no later than the round of 32.