I wouldn't call UCLA a lock yet, especially after losing to Minnesota yesterday. I'd throw their game against Nebraska on there and make the UCLA v USC game a tbd.

Thank you.

Yeah I still think the loser of the game is toast and the winner isn't necessarily in the clear.

Also missing one tonight.

Duke at NC State

If NC State drops this one they're definitely in the danger zone. They probably still make it as long as they beat Stanford on Saturday but Stanford just beat the brakes off of SMU so I don't think that's an absolute lock.

Stanford coming east makes that one tough to hope for, but drop both and they're definitely feeling very nervous.

It is wild how large the bubble is this year, but it isn't deep at all. Most of the teams considered on the bubble will get a bid, with like ~4-5 hopeful teams getting left out. The bubble just extends from teams almost on the 8 line to all the way out at this point with just a week to go.

Yeah, I've also seen too many throw out general things like "win one in the SEC Tournament" but how the seeds for these tournaments shake out is going to make a huge difference.

Like right now NC State would have to play Stanford again before they played anyone that could help them.

If we're the 9 seed or worse we're going to be playing a first game that doesn't help us at all.

bobinator said:

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Also missing one tonight.

Duke at NC State

If NC State drops this one they're definitely in the danger zone. They probably still make it as long as they beat Stanford on Saturday but Stanford just beat the brakes off of SMU so I don't think that's an absolute lock.

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My guy T3 has NC State very safely in the field.

Written version of today's seed list. pic.twitter.com/OBQKKVVgW2

— T3™️ (@T3Bracketology) March 2, 2026

They're safely in the field right now, but they're definitely not a lock to get in. Would be if they beat Duke, but really everyone from the 8 line back is one bad loss from being right in the mix.

They're probably fine as long as they beat Stanford, but still, might as well hope they lose this one because if they do lose to Stanford then they'll suddenly be in real trouble.

I know the NET WAB isn't the end all be-all, but again last year the top 42 teams all made it and the worst team that made it was #49 (which they were functionally more like #47 because of some auto-bids).

NC State is already #39, a loss tonight would likely drop them to #41 at roughly 1.08, a loss to Stanford would put them all the way back into Auburn territory at roughly #47-#48 depending on other outcomes.

Their in that tier of teams that's in like "don't screw it up" territory. They're in as long as they win the games they're fairly heavy favorites in.

YIKES...

A&M Sitting at 44.

Sure seems like we better win both UK and LSU.

Does a UK Loss and LSU Win get us to 42 or higher?

I wouldn't think so, as they both will go with the odds (UK Loss expected) (LSU win expected) so seems like they would cancel each other out.

Yeah, that's how tight this group is right now, win both of those and we probably jump up about 8 spots. Kentucky is gonna be worth about .4 and LSU about .5, so all of a sudden you'd be sitting at roughly 37th.

I haven't watched UK since Jan, do you think we can win the way we have been playing?

I never had a good feeling about tu, all week. Just seems like we are in a funk, and not sure we are gonna get out of it. I don't know if the book is out how to defend us, dead legs, or what the issue is. But I have little confidence we can get back to Jan form.

Kentucky is a very strange team this year. They'll look brilliant one game like they did against Vandy but a week before that lost games to Auburn and a home game against Georgia.

The big concern is they are another big and athletic team. Basically everyone they put on the court is gonna be 6-5 or bigger.

I think we certainly CAN beat them, but we need some kind of vibe change-up. Whether that's changing the starting lineup just to do it or what, I dunno, but we need some kind of spark.

I think it is time to sit Dominguez at least to start the game.

Having him run around for 10 minutes and guarding full court, can't be great for his shot.

I would start Dibba at the 4 or if Zach has a good week of practice, then give him the start at the 4.

At least Zach would give us another tall guy out there.

We just have too many guys that are inconsistent.

We have at least 4 guys that could give you 2-20 points on even given night, with no warning either way whatsoever.

Dominguez, Pop, Griffen, Zach

A question for someone who knows:

I know a lot of people put faith in the conference tournaments as a way in but it seems like in recent years the committee simply doesn't care how you do, only if you win and therefore have to have a seat.

Is that the sense you get as well?

Because that means we can not rely on the SECT to get in (barring actually winning it) and have to make the last few opportunities here count

I think it's more complicated than that. Games CAN matter, but they matter a lot less than they used to. They also need to be the right kinds of games.

NC State didn't get that win at least, keeps them in play.

"didn't get that win" is a bit of an understatement. They were demolished!

Depends on the team. Texas A&M can make a deep run in Nashville and get sent to the NIT

"Someone" can win a couple of games and go from completely unworthy, straight to Dayton

If a certain top four seed wouldn't have lost to them in the conference tournament they probably don't make it.

Here's the deal for me with the conference tournaments:

1) You have to already be in the conversation when these folks meet midweek: If you win a couple of big games and are trying to jump like 15 spots on the seed list, it's probably not going to happen. You have to at least be a team they're already monitoring.

2) The number of wins isn't important, it's who you beat: I've seen people say stuff like "win one in the SECT and we should be okay" or whatever. It depends on who that one is. If we're the the 9 seed and that first game is against South Carolina than it does next to nothing for us. You need to beat a team that matters.

3) The later in the week it is, the less it's going to matter: This has been pretty consistently true the last several years, where the results on Saturday and Sunday do not matter as much as the days before, especially the Sunday games. By Saturday night they've more or less locked this thing in.

Added UCLA, Cincinnati, and West Virginia games to the schedule today based off of Lunardis new bracketology.

It's wild that West Virginia is still in the mix. I had them on a seed watch thread a few weeks ago as a team to keep an eye on because their schedule was pretty favorable but then they go and lose three straight games including a Quad 3 loss to Utah and yet they're still here.

bobinator said:

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It's wild that West Virginia is still in the mix. I had them on a seed watch thread a few weeks ago as a team to keep an eye on because their schedule was pretty favorable but then they go and lose three straight games including a Quad 3 loss to Utah and yet they're still here.

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Is it bc the bubble is that small?

The bubble is actually huge, it's just that most of the teams on it project to make the field.

Assuming by bubble we just mean teams who can still play their win in or out, there's just a ton of teams who could still play their way out but not many that can play their way in without a lot of help.

Just kind of a weird season. There's more "very good" teams than usual.

There's teams that are probably 5-10 spots out that we have to keep talking about because they're theoretically close to the cut line but I don't know how many of them are practically close.

I think there's a decent chance we go into next week with a bubble of like five teams.