Anyone but St. Louis in the Atlantic 10 too.

lol got me on the edit.

It may just take one. It's not just mid majors either . Suppose for example Auburn catches fire and wins the SEC tourney or Baylor does the same and wins the B12 tourney. That could potentially knock a bubble team like us to the NIT.

Bob beat me to it but same idea albeit his is much more specific .

halfastros81 said:

---

It may just take one. It's not just mid majors either . Suppose for example Auburn catches fire and wins the SEC tourney or Baylor does the same and wins the B12 tourney. That could potentially knock a bubble team like us to the NIT.

---

It's pretty rare for the major conferences to produce a bid stealer considering how deep the at larges go there. Bobinator hit on the most likely one in the Big East.

Pretty rare is not never tho. We need to win the next 2 to feel confident imo.

I think one in the next two will be sufficient, but you're right that a bunch of unlikely shenanigans could upend the calculations.

The conferences have also juked their tournament formats to protect their top teams which makes it more unlikely than it used to be. There's usually at least one or two though.

It's kind of what makes a bubble watch hard right now though.

I think VCU, Santa Clara, New Mexico and SDSU are all basically in the same boat where right now they're technically on the bubble, but none of their remaining games are going to help them much (and Santa Clara is done) compared to all of the major conference teams.

I'm not sure any of those teams has a chance unless they win their conference tournaments or at least make the finals and lose to the lock team. Any loss would be devastating and most of the wins aren't going to help them any.

VCU and New Mexico maybe. If VCU wins at Dayton they'll at least have a shot and New Mexico plays at Utah State, which could give them a shot if all of the big conference bubble teams immediately lose in their tournaments.

Champagne bubbly

Devils advocate, does a loss to LSU unwind anything from tonight?

Puts us back where we were coming into today

If "in" means Dayton or better, then the only way we are OUT is if we lose to LSU, lose first game of SECT and there are something like four or more bid stealers coming out of conference tournaments, and other bubble teams below us get on a heater.

In that sense, we are not yet a 100.0% lock, but we are close.

Torvik has us at the top of "Last Four Byes" this morning and he is either assuming we beat LSU or are favored to do so. We would have to drop 4 spots to be in Dayton and 8 spots to be an NIT team.

nm

Beating Kentucky at home is not a signature win this year. But we have stacked several pretty good wins.

By WAB our three biggest wins are @Georgia, @Texas, @Auburn.

I won't be comfortable until we beat LSU Saturday.

Muy said:

---

t - cam said:

---

Devils advocate, does a loss to LSU unwind anything from tonight?

---

We got our signature win last night.

I say the Ags are firmly in now, regardless of LSU. But let's whip LSU because we hate them.

---

Still don't have a great win. Kentuckys brand is cool and all but everyone that pays attention knows they are a hot mess this year by their standards.

halfastros81 said:

---

I won't be comfortable until we beat LSU Saturday.

---

Agreed.

Saw a number of people last night claiming "We're in!" and I won't truly agree until we take care of business on Saturday. Lose Saturday and we open ourselves up to some scenarios that could get worrisome.
Good news is we are going to take care of business.

bobinator said:

---

Beating Kentucky at home is not a signature win this year. But we have stacked several pretty good wins.

By WAB our three biggest wins are @Georgia, @Texas, @Auburn.

---

All four games mentioned felt really big at the time to me.

Topher17 said:

---

halfastros81 said:

---

I won't be comfortable until we beat LSU Saturday.

---

Agreed.

Saw a number of people last night claiming "We're in!" and I won't truly agree until we take care of business on Saturday. Lose Saturday and we open ourselves up to some scenarios that could get worrisome.
Good news is we are going to take care of business.

---

While true I think we are currently something like 90% or better even if we lose at LSU.

Oh for sure. I'd even throw the away Oklahoma game in there which looks better and better all the time.

I was just meaning from a selection committee "big win" standpoint. None of our wins are like Ohio State beating Purdue the other day in the "one big win" sense, but we have like four or five very good wins.