19 days to Selection Sunday. Time to summon our collective will power and focus some negative energy on our enemies. This is mostly focused on games that will impact us:
Texas A&M projected seed: 9
Torvik TourneyCast odds: 97.3%
Current bubble status: Right now the consensus on bracket matrix is that the true bubble, being those teams that could go either way, is just four teams. TCU, New Mexico, USC and Ohio State. Of 112 brackets on bracket matrix (updated yesterday) everyone else appears in at least 103 of them or fewer than nine of them.
Tuesday: February 24: (projected seed), team we're for in bold
(11) Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan - 5:30 - ESPN+ - I'm going to go ahead and project Miami of Ohio as in at this point. I think the bubble has softened enough that they can survive one loss. Probably not two though.
(7) NC State at (4) Virginia - 6 - ACC Network - Probably doesn't matter but NC State has a tricky game left at Notre Dame and a game against Duke. Could get dicey.
Cincinnati at (4) Texas Tech - 6 - ESPN2 - This doesn't matter for us because Cincinnati would need to win out which is very unlikely but it's an interesting game because people are ready to drop Texas Tech after losing Toppin for the season, but as long as they continue to look pretty good without him, I don't think they can drop them too far. Everyone prematurely dropping over the weekend was ridiculous. Wait for the data to come in and see if Tech looks like a completely different team without him rather than just guessing.
(7) St. Louis at Dayton - 6 - ESPN+ - St. Louis is likely fine even if they lose one game, but they have two games left they could reasonably lose and this is the first one.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State - 6 - CBSSN - Call this the "low bubble," but neither of these teams are quite out of the race yet. They currently sit 59 and 60 in the NET WAB. Oklahoma State has bigger opportunities left if they get hot, but West Virginia has an easier schedule to manage without doing anything crazy. They'd need the bubble come back to them a bit, but it's possible.
Northwestern at (10) Indiana - 6 - FS1 - This is probably too much to hope for, bigger game for Indiana is Sunday's home against Michigan State. If they drop that one they might need to win at Ohio State in their finale.
(7) Kentucky at South Carolina - 6 - SEC Network - Kentucky has been a guy yelling at his buddies to 'git him' on the perimeter of the fight but now they're running the risk of being pulled into the fray. They should win this one, but one bad night in Columbia and suddenly Kentucky is staring down a stretch of Vandy, @ A&M, and Florida and they'll need to win at least one of them. (Spoiler alert: it's Vandy, you can never count on them to win a game you want them to.)
(5) Tennessee at (11) Missouri - 8 - SEC Network - This one is actually pretty close, but I think in most universes it's better for us if Tennessee goes ahead and wins this game. A Tennessee loss here really opens the door for us to grab one of the top four seeds in the SEC Tournament, but it's probably a safer play to not let Mizzou jump up the seed list.
Arizona State at (11) TCU - 8 - CBSSN - TCU is livin' on a prayer right now and a loss here might do them in.
(8) Miami at Florida State - 8 - ACC Network - The 'Noles have been doing their part to float our metrics, let's keep it going.
(10) Auburn at Oklahoma - 8 - ESPNU
(9) UCF at (6) BYU - 10 - ESPN2 - UCF is unlikely to fall all the way out but if we can win a couple games they're a catchable team
(11) New Mexico at Nevada - 10 - CBSSN - New Mexico is living life right on the edge. If they don't get this one they're probably going to need some help to stay in the field.
(B-out) USC at (11) UCLA - 10 - FS1 - BUBBLE GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE DAY - We don't care who wins this one, we just want the same team to win the next one when they play again in two weeks. A cross town rivalry to be one of the last teams in the tournament, this is the stuff that college basketball dreams are made of!
Texas A&M projected seed: 9
Torvik TourneyCast odds: 97.3%
Current bubble status: Right now the consensus on bracket matrix is that the true bubble, being those teams that could go either way, is just four teams. TCU, New Mexico, USC and Ohio State. Of 112 brackets on bracket matrix (updated yesterday) everyone else appears in at least 103 of them or fewer than nine of them.
Tuesday: February 24: (projected seed), team we're for in bold
(11) Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan - 5:30 - ESPN+ - I'm going to go ahead and project Miami of Ohio as in at this point. I think the bubble has softened enough that they can survive one loss. Probably not two though.
(7) NC State at (4) Virginia - 6 - ACC Network - Probably doesn't matter but NC State has a tricky game left at Notre Dame and a game against Duke. Could get dicey.
Cincinnati at (4) Texas Tech - 6 - ESPN2 - This doesn't matter for us because Cincinnati would need to win out which is very unlikely but it's an interesting game because people are ready to drop Texas Tech after losing Toppin for the season, but as long as they continue to look pretty good without him, I don't think they can drop them too far. Everyone prematurely dropping over the weekend was ridiculous. Wait for the data to come in and see if Tech looks like a completely different team without him rather than just guessing.
(7) St. Louis at Dayton - 6 - ESPN+ - St. Louis is likely fine even if they lose one game, but they have two games left they could reasonably lose and this is the first one.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State - 6 - CBSSN - Call this the "low bubble," but neither of these teams are quite out of the race yet. They currently sit 59 and 60 in the NET WAB. Oklahoma State has bigger opportunities left if they get hot, but West Virginia has an easier schedule to manage without doing anything crazy. They'd need the bubble come back to them a bit, but it's possible.
Northwestern at (10) Indiana - 6 - FS1 - This is probably too much to hope for, bigger game for Indiana is Sunday's home against Michigan State. If they drop that one they might need to win at Ohio State in their finale.
(7) Kentucky at South Carolina - 6 - SEC Network - Kentucky has been a guy yelling at his buddies to 'git him' on the perimeter of the fight but now they're running the risk of being pulled into the fray. They should win this one, but one bad night in Columbia and suddenly Kentucky is staring down a stretch of Vandy, @ A&M, and Florida and they'll need to win at least one of them. (Spoiler alert: it's Vandy, you can never count on them to win a game you want them to.)
(5) Tennessee at (11) Missouri - 8 - SEC Network - This one is actually pretty close, but I think in most universes it's better for us if Tennessee goes ahead and wins this game. A Tennessee loss here really opens the door for us to grab one of the top four seeds in the SEC Tournament, but it's probably a safer play to not let Mizzou jump up the seed list.
Arizona State at (11) TCU - 8 - CBSSN - TCU is livin' on a prayer right now and a loss here might do them in.
(8) Miami at Florida State - 8 - ACC Network - The 'Noles have been doing their part to float our metrics, let's keep it going.
(10) Auburn at Oklahoma - 8 - ESPNU
(9) UCF at (6) BYU - 10 - ESPN2 - UCF is unlikely to fall all the way out but if we can win a couple games they're a catchable team
(11) New Mexico at Nevada - 10 - CBSSN - New Mexico is living life right on the edge. If they don't get this one they're probably going to need some help to stay in the field.
(B-out) USC at (11) UCLA - 10 - FS1 - BUBBLE GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE DAY - We don't care who wins this one, we just want the same team to win the next one when they play again in two weeks. A cross town rivalry to be one of the last teams in the tournament, this is the stuff that college basketball dreams are made of!