SEC Tournament Seeding Projections

3,465 Views | 25 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by Seven Costanza
mikesyracuse1
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This is an interesting take on the SEC tournament projections using kenpom projections and the remaining schedule as of 2/19. Here's how this was put together from KSR.

https://www.on3.com/teams/kentucky-wildcats/news/sec-tournament-projection-kentucky-basketball-double-bye/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAQEuF1leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAo2NjI4NTY4Mzc5AAEeCM1-b_TZ2wTaPPuylqLO3gWQ4OUG_mPbjeK1MT5YLwqSPBWV8UC6I8Z_dV4_aem_NacfKcTAgsanIZ7MA2sbpA


bobinator
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It's going to be a long few days for whoever loses that 8/9 game.
Luke The Drifter
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I have a tiny bit of a dilemma. I am going to be in Nashville for work in March. I am slated to fly home on Thursday the 12th, meaning I can go to day 1 of the SECT. I would love to see the Ags play a game in the SECT...but that means they'd have to finish in the bottom half of the standings. I'd much rather see us as the 8-seed or better and miss the opportunity to see us play in Nashville. Hopefully, I can just go to day 1 in my A&M gear and root like hell against teams I want to see lose.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
CapCityAg89
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Move your flight. Most airlines ended penalties during Covid for all but the very cheapest fares.
Luke The Drifter
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CapCityAg89 said:

Move your flight. Most airlines ended penalties during Covid for all but the very cheapest fares.


I would, but I have to be home for something on that Thursday afternoon.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
CapCityAg89
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Luke The Drifter said:

CapCityAg89 said:

Move your flight. Most airlines ended penalties during Covid for all but the very cheapest fares.


I would, but I have to be home for something on that Thursday afternoon.

Damnit! Priorities man! Kidding. Just don't even think about rooting for the Ags to end up 9. I kinda explained the up side to losing to texas (being able to afford a playoff game) and then it came true AND I couldn't even go.
halfastros81
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SEC tourney seeding is an area where it seems the Bediako thing could be taken into account. Bama getting a double bye seems out of whack to me

If the season ended today it wouldn't make much difference for us in the SEC tourney but it would for Vanderbilt as they'd get the double bye vs Bama.
Zachary Klement
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These are the teams Bama beat during that stretch and those outcomes could have impacts for those teams specifically:
- Mizzou (Bama blew Missouri out, so unlikely Bediako was really a difference maker here)
- Us (we lost by three)
- Auburn (Auburn lost by 4)

But outside of just those teams, they have an impact on the entire league, if you flip the result of our game and the Auburn game, Bama tumbles from second in the standings to tenth right now because of how tightly bunched teams are.
halfastros81
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Yeah , I'm kind of viewing this from the perspective of who gets a double bye and Bama probably wouldn't had Bediako not played . Moving them down to a 10 seed would have a huge impact on their chances to win the tourney since they'd go from double bye to no bye but I wasn't really thinking about the full impact on their seeding . You make a real good point .
bobinator
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I still think it's a pretty wild thought to think we win that game if Bediako doesn't play. He was pretty bad in that game with a -9 +/-. If his minutes go to someone else we probably lose that game even worse than we did.

The team that really has some beef with their outcome is Auburn, but I think all of this is kinda pointless.
Zachary Klement
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Or you can think about it this way:

He had five points.

They won by three points.

Take away his points and we win!

Makes perfect sense to me ;-)
halfastros81
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I don't necessarily think we win if Bediako doesn't play. I just think Bama needs some sort of consequences for doing something that was very unlikely to fly . As it is they basically have no consequences.

As far as SEC tourney seeding goes i don't think there's a dimes worth of differencs between a 1 -4 seed or a 6-9 seed or a 10-16 seed but there is a big difference in 4 vs 5 or 9 vs 10.
bobinator
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I think it would be different if they were noticeably better with him, but they weren't so I don't know how you create a consequence for that. Though I'm sure the selection committee will use it against them if there's an opportunity to, like if it ends up being real close between them and someone else on the seed line.
halfastros81
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So your'e arguing for consequences of action weighed by probable impact on outcome. I'm not. I'm only arguing for consequences of action .

As it is they took a risk and lost and still suffered zero consequences which encourages more of the same.

If i were in charge I'd have told them for conference tourney seeding purposes you lost every game Bediako played in. Now had they won in the 2nd court ruling then of course no consequences for that but everyone i heard talk about it were confident the ruling was going against them.
Topher17
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bobinator said:

I still think it's a pretty wild thought to think we win that game if Bediako doesn't play. He was pretty bad in that game with a -9 +/-. If his minutes go to someone else we probably lose that game even worse than we did.

The team that really has some beef with their outcome is Auburn, but I think all of this is kinda pointless.

I agree it is a pointless exercise, however I will say with the pace of our game they just needed someone to eat minutes for Sherrell. Bediako played 19 minutes. The difference in being eight deep versus seven in that game could have been significant, but we'll never know.

I'll be interested to see if Auburn is right on the cut line how their game is or isn't taken into consideration.
Zachary Klement
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Topher17 said:

bobinator said:

I still think it's a pretty wild thought to think we win that game if Bediako doesn't play. He was pretty bad in that game with a -9 +/-. If his minutes go to someone else we probably lose that game even worse than we did.

The team that really has some beef with their outcome is Auburn, but I think all of this is kinda pointless.

I agree it is a pointless exercise, however I will say with the pace of our game they just needed someone to eat minutes for Sherrell. Bediako played 19 minutes. The difference in being eight deep versus seven in that game could have been significant, but we'll never know.

I'll be interested to see if Auburn is right on the cut line how their game is or isn't taken into consideration.

On a more serious note than my last post, it is also impossible to know the psychological weight of this whole ordeal for them. This may have been a rallying point for Bama and maybe the outside noise brought them together!
bobinator
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I'm just saying the consequence would be easier if there was a more definite outcome. I also don't think the conference can do anything really, it would be up to the NCAA. But I also just don't think the whole thing is as big of a deal as other people seem to. If anything I bet working a guy into the team and practicing with him for three weeks and then losing him anyway was way more trouble than it was worth.
Topher17
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And now without him the entire team, like Coach Oats, must be heartbroken Bediako will be unable to complete his degree! There's no telling how those emotions could impact their play going forward.
halfastros81
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I agree it may have been more destructive than constructive for Bama , and i also agree that it's not a super big deal in the big picture but it's an interesting discussion topic imo.

Why would NCAA have say over SEC tourney seeding tho?
bobinator
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I just mean I don't think the SEC is going to institute any kind of penalty if the NCAA itself doesn't.
halfastros81
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You're probably right but maybe the better question is should the SEC institute some sort of consequential penalty irrespective of what the NCAA does?

I agree they won't. Not worth the trouble altho there are several conference members that may disagree.
bobinator
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If it were football maybe, but in basketball I think they should just defer to the NCAA.
Zachary Klement
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No!!! They're obviously fired up because they're angry that he got the boot. This whole scenario worked in their favor!!
HowdyAgs03
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Updated Projections as of today (2/22):
https://www.on3.com/teams/kentucky-wildcats/news/sec-tournament-projection-wednesday-start-kentucky-basketball/

bobinator
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This is gonna be a wild finish. Texas still plays us, Florida and Arkansas; Arkansas also still plays Florida; Tennessee and Bama still play each other and Tennessee and Vandy still have a game, and Kentucky still plays us, Vandy AND Florida.

Unless Florida drops a game to someone the battle for the 2-9 slots is gonna be insane.
Seven Costanza
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This is another nice tool that can generate conference tournament seeding. You can choose to hand pick the outcomes or let it generate the bracket based Torvik projections (it does say that it is only using the higher ranked team in Torvik in each game, which may mean they are ignoring home court advantage, which would throw this off a bit).

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=mbb

This is with letting it default to Torvik:

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