UK is also the kind of team that by that point in the year might have totally quit. Or if we get an early lead, they're very susceptible to quitting against our annoying (for the opponent) style of play.
Probability of making the dance
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Last: 10 hrs ago by halfastros81
Much better graphic and probably better grouping of games than I did. Love it!
bobinator said:
If we're going to do a "black out" game this season it should be that one so the blue shirts don't stand out as much as they do against Maroon/White. Plus it's the last home of the year, let's get weird with it.
Red, white and blue out so buy your red shirts and white shirts, Aggies.
Bump after beating the horns.
After a week where we lost a game we were expected lose, and picked up a win from the toss-up category, I feel better about putting the odds higher than 50%. Crazy to think about where this team would be sitting had they taken care of business down the stretch in Knoxville…
After a week where we lost a game we were expected lose, and picked up a win from the toss-up category, I feel better about putting the odds higher than 50%. Crazy to think about where this team would be sitting had they taken care of business down the stretch in Knoxville…
Torvik has the odds at 89% now.
Said this in a couple threads but let's dare to dream people. If we can win in Austin and Auburn and essentially tie Tennessee on the road we might not need to worry about bubble math.
Take these next two going into the bye, get Agee in some kind of recovery chamber on the off date, and let's go grab some more wins.
Said this in a couple threads but let's dare to dream people. If we can win in Austin and Auburn and essentially tie Tennessee on the road we might not need to worry about bubble math.
Take these next two going into the bye, get Agee in some kind of recovery chamber on the off date, and let's go grab some more wins.
I feel like the chances are improving every game but we are still going to likely lay some eggs. 5 or 6 more conference wins should do it and it's a lot easier to see that path forward than it was on Jan 1. 3 and maybe 4 of the losses to date are also looking like losses to other tourney teams imo. I think it's in the 60-65 % probability range now.
Thinking this thru a bit more, all 4 losses to date are to teams that are going to make the tourney
Thinking this thru a bit more, all 4 losses to date are to teams that are going to make the tourney
I thought 9-9 to make and 10-8 for sure, but niw i think we might have to shift thise up 1 as SEC does not seem to be as dominant. 10-8 in, 11-7 no question. 9-9 hold your breath.
JJxvi said:
I bet if we make the Final Four we still end up losing!
At first glance I thought your handle was "Jinx" and thought..., well I'm not going to say.
Divining Rod said:
I thought 9-9 to make and 10-8 for sure, but niw i think we might have to shift thise up 1 as SEC does not seem to be as dominant. 10-8 in, 11-7 no question. 9-9 hold your breath.
I'm not so sure. Last year, the SEC was a couple 1 seeds and a bunch of 2-4s. This year, UF might end up a 1 but really those lines just shift down one. SEC is very good but not elite like last year. Still probably 12 tourney quality teams.
This morning's Torvik for SEC teams. Our odds now 90.1%
bobinator said:
Torvik has the odds at 89% now.
Said this in a couple threads but let's dare to dream people. If we can win in Austin and Auburn and essentially tie Tennessee on the road we might not need to worry about bubble math.
Take these next two going into the bye, get Agee in some kind of recovery chamber on the off date, and let's go grab some more wins.
At this point, how can you not start to dream?
The road to the tournament graphic is kind of cringy because we really don't know anymore about our team much less the rest of the conference. There has been some weird games already with a few upsets so the speculation on the rest of the conference is overreaching at this point.
But with our team, they're getting better and I think the biggest difference in our team is they're a mature team with a dynamic offense and defense that is hard to go up against.
Our margin of victory is at 4 points so it would be good if we can blow out one of the next 2 teams we're going to play. We need to show that we can sustain a long lead until the final buzzer. That's the next step.
https://www.jthomanalytics.com/basketball/seed?conf=Southeastern
Another analytics site for discussion. It says we need 10 conference wins to get in, which feels right to me. Also says a 5 seed is our ceiling if we go 14-4 in SEC play.
Another analytics site for discussion. It says we need 10 conference wins to get in, which feels right to me. Also says a 5 seed is our ceiling if we go 14-4 in SEC play.
4-1 after 5 games. As of right now we are sitting at the top of the SEC standings about 30% through the conference schedule. There are 5 ranked SEC teams below us in the standings.
We have 4 more games of the remaining 13 against ranked teams (statistical loss). Away factors in, but we should expect to have a reasonable chance of winning any of those other 9 games. Stealing any game against a remaining ranked team isn't expected, but would be a bonus.
I think it wouldn't be out of the question at THIS MOMENT to think we win 6-7 of those remaining 9 games against unranked teams well below us in conference standings to get us to 10 or 11 conference wins. If we don't, we don't deserve to make the dance as frustrating as it would be.
We have 4 more games of the remaining 13 against ranked teams (statistical loss). Away factors in, but we should expect to have a reasonable chance of winning any of those other 9 games. Stealing any game against a remaining ranked team isn't expected, but would be a bonus.
I think it wouldn't be out of the question at THIS MOMENT to think we win 6-7 of those remaining 9 games against unranked teams well below us in conference standings to get us to 10 or 11 conference wins. If we don't, we don't deserve to make the dance as frustrating as it would be.
I'm pretty darn pleased with how we've played thus far. This team is gritty and plays hard. I also like that we've developed good depth. Bucky was an outstanding hire!
Adam87inSA said:
This morning's Torvik for SEC teams. Our odds now 90.1%
Mississippi State really surprises me down there. Hubbard is so good, it's hard to see them lose so often.
Agree. But I just don't think a 5'9/10" guard can carry a team on his own. 4 always had help I think. MSU is really all about Hubbard.
I was really hoping to make it back to Reed next Saturday but current (subject to huge change) weather forecast shows potential freezing rain on my 2 hour drive. Hopefully that forecast changes, surely USC will make it in since the wintery stuff is more for the night after the game, not before.
Complete Idiot said:
I was really hoping to make it back to Reed next Saturday but current (subject to huge change) weather forecast shows potential freezing rain on my 2 hour drive. Hopefully that forecast changes, surely USC will make it in since the wintery stuff is more for the night after the game, not before.
Yeah same here. I have yet to make it this season for one reason or another.
Joe Lunardi now has us "On The Bubble" as a "Last 4 Byes" team. But in the bracket, we'd be a 10 seed in the South Region with UConn as the 1 seed and Nebraska as the 2. He has us playing No. 7 SMU and then the winner of Nebraska and No. 15 UT-Martin.
I know we already lost to SMU earlier in the season, but I don't think this would be the worst position to be in. This team is getting better and better as they get used to Bucky Ball and each other.
I know we already lost to SMU earlier in the season, but I don't think this would be the worst position to be in. This team is getting better and better as they get used to Bucky Ball and each other.
This may not be the best place to start this convo, maybe should be new thread but I'm curious to hear your comparison of this A& M team to Bucky's Samford team that nearly took Kansas down in the Dance ( did take them down imo but for the refs).
PJYoung said:Complete Idiot said:
I was really hoping to make it back to Reed next Saturday but current (subject to huge change) weather forecast shows potential freezing rain on my 2 hour drive. Hopefully that forecast changes, surely USC will make it in since the wintery stuff is more for the night after the game, not before.
Yeah same here. I have yet to make it this season for one reason or another.
Forecast is getting worse, not better.
I don't get why people pay any attention to Lunardi especially this early. He's constantly changing his projections up to the last minute and there is so much more ball to be played . There isn't a bubble to be on right now, way too many moving parts . I guess his qualifier is "if the season ended today" but it doesn't end today.
This is why I like Torvik. He takes into account all results to date, projects the remainder of season for everyone, and bases his ratings and NCAAT seeding on that.
Is it still preliminary? Sure.
But it's more realistic than "if the season ended today" brackets.
Is it still preliminary? Sure.
But it's more realistic than "if the season ended today" brackets.
This is actually what annoys me most about how Lunardi does it. It's not really "if the season ended today" but it's not really a projection either. It's kind of vibes-based projection.
Which does make sense given that he's having to put out these updates every single day. If you're having to do this stuff every day you're probably subject to what you might call a "need to do something" bias.
Which does make sense given that he's having to put out these updates every single day. If you're having to do this stuff every day you're probably subject to what you might call a "need to do something" bias.
The every day thing is silly as well imo in January. Can see it in late February .
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