Interesting week!

A common problem with doing this on here is that fans always suffer from a bit of what I saw another poster refer to as "main character syndrome." We tend to only focus on how what we're doing is impacting things, and not at what everyone else is doing.

Well that's going to be the theme of this week's seed watch. While we didn't really do a lot to change our projection, some other teams did to change theirs, so we've got some new teams in the mix and some teams dropping out. Let's get into it.

Note: Remember that if you want a look at things as they are now, then ColleyvilleAg's bubble watch is better, this is designed to accompany that as a projection. If there's a team that looks out of place here, it's probably because of their future schedule.

Second note: This week I happened to agree with Torvik's seed projections so these teams are just in projected seed order with some notes along the way. This also helps me keep my personal feelings on some of these teams out of the mix on the actual seed list (but I will note my opinions where they differ from the projections.)

Tier 1 - Way out front

1 - 1 Auburn (24-2, 12-1) | Resume avg: 1 | Quality avg. 2.3
Tourneycast projection: 1.1
Up next: Georgia (W -17)
Remaining: Ole Miss (W -14), at Kentucky (W -5), at Texas A&M (W -5), Alabama (W -10)
Projected record: 28-3, 16.2

1 - 2 - Duke (23-3, 15-1) | Resume avg: 6 | Quality avg: 1.7
Tourneycast projection: 1.4
Up next: Illinois (W -7) - Neutral site game
Remaining: at Miami (W -21), Florida State (W -22), Wake Forest (W -18), at North Carolina (W -10)
Proejcted record: 27-4, 19-1

These two aren't worth worrying about.

Tier 2 - Not as far out front

1 -3 | Alabama (21-5, 10-3) | Resume avg: 2 | Quality avg: 6.7
Tourneycast projection: 1.6
Up next: Kentucky (W -9)
Remaining: Mississippi State (W -10), at Tennessee (L +4), Florida (W -2), at Auburn (L -10)
Projected record: 24-7, 13-5

1 - 4 | Florida (23-3, 10-3) | Resume avg: 3 | Quality avg: 4.7
Tourneycast projection: 1.6
Up next: at LSU (W -10)
Remaining: at Georgia (W -6), Texas A&M (W -9), at Alabama (L +2), Ole Miss (W -11)
Projected record: 27-4, 14-4

2 - 5 | Tennesseee (21-5, 8-5) | Resume avg: 4.7 | Quality avg: 4.7
Tourneycast projection: 1.8
Up next: at Texas A&M (Toss up)
Remaining: at LSU (W - 8), Alabama (W -4), at Ole Miss (W -1), South Carolina (W -16)
Projected record: 24-7, 11-7 (Note here: the projected record is not necessarily the sum of the predictions. If you have a 55% chance of winning three individual games, you're favored in each one, but the odds are also that you'll lose one of them. In this case, Torvik likes Tennessee to drop two of these games)

2 - 6 | Houston (22-4, 14-1) | Resume avg: 6 | Quality avg: 2
Tourneycast projection: 1.9
Up next: Iowa State (W -10)
Remaining: at Texas Tech (W -3), Cincinnati (W -15), Kansas (W -12), at Baylor (W -7)
Projected record: 26-5, 18-2

This group is TIGHT. And also highlights why there's value in projecting these things out. Alabama probably has at least two more losses coming, but they probably don't matter. The reason is Alabama's much higher overall strength of schedule and their remaining strength of schedule compared to the others.

To catch anyone in this group, we're going to have to significantly outplay our projection. Whether that's beating Tennessee by a significant margin or upsetting Auburn or Florida.

Tier 3 - Badgers Only

2 - 7 | Wisconsin (21-5, 11-4) | Resume avg: 8 | Quality avg: 11.7
Tourneycast projection: 2.7
Up next: Oregon (W -11)
Remaining: Washington (W -19), at Michigan State (L +2), at Minnesota (W -7), Penn State (W -16)
Projected record: 25-6, 15-5

What a week for the Badgers. A convincing road win at Purdue and a home annihilation of Illinois have them jumping way up the list this week. The game at Michigan State is their only chance to improve their numbers much, and with only one other road game left it's unlikely their numbers fall much either. Their hopes of rising just depend on whether or not other teams hit their projections.

Tier 4 - Royal Rumble

2 - 8 | Kentucky (18-8, 7-6) | Resume avg: 12.7 | Quality avg: 16.3
Tourneycast projection: 2.9
Up next: at Alabama (L +9)
Remaining: at Oklahoma (W -4), Auburn (L +5), LSU (W -14), at Missouri (L +7)
Projected record: 20-11, 9-9

2 - 9 | Arizona (18-8, 12-3) | Resume avg: 19.7 | Quality avg: 7.7
Tourneycast projection: 3.1
Up next: BYU (W -7)
Remaining: Utah (W -15), at Iowa State (L +3), Arizona State (W -14), at Kansas (L -1)
Projected record: 21-10, 15-5


3 - 10 | Michigan State (21-5, 12-3) | Resume avg: 13 | Quality avg: 14.3
Tourneycast projection: 3.2
Up next: at Michigan (L +4)
Remaining: at Maryland (L +4), Wisconsin (W -2), at Iowa (W -5), Michigan (W -4)
Projected record: 24-7, 15-5

3 - 11 | Missouri (20-6, 9-4) | Resume avg: 13.7 | Quality avg: 17.3
Tourneycast projection: 3.4
Up next: at Arkansas (W -4)
Remaining: South Carolina (W -17), at Vanderbilt (W -3), at Oklahoma (W -6), Kentucky (W -7)
Projected record: 24-7, 13-5

3 - 12 | Iowa State (21-5, 11-4) | Resume avg: 13.3 | Quality avg: 9
Tourneycast projection: 3.6
Up next: at Houston (L +10)
Remaining: at Oklahoma State (W -9), Arizona (W -3), BYU (W -3), at Kansas State (W -4)
Projected record: 24-7, 14-6

4 - 13 | Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4) | Resume avg: 7.7 | Quality avg: 19.3
Tourneycast projection: 3.7
Up next: Tennessee (Toss up)
Remaining: Vandy (W -8), at Florida (L +9), Auburn (L +5), LSU (W -4)
Projected record: 22-9, 11-7

• Pausing for a second to talk about where we're at because this is a significant "fall" from last week, but it gives me a chance to talk about why this stuff is complicated. People like simple, but there's a lot of moving parts to this deal. This group of teams is bunched VERY tightly together, and small changes in the underlying data can make pretty big differences on the seed list. Both Wisconsin and Michigan State defeated both Illinois and Purdue, greatly strengthening their own numbers, but also weakening Purdue's, which in turn weaken ours. Texas Tech then also loses a game in which they were favored by 7.5 at TCU, hurting their numbers and ours. Combine that with us underperforming the projection at Mississippi State, and this is what you get. Remember, it's not just if you win or lose, it's how you win or lose. The downstream impacts of opponent wins and losses don't matter as much in conference games because we've played both teams (like Missouri beating Alabama.) Also remember this is a projection, not an "as it is now", we would be 5-6 spots higher on that. Obviously it's hard to overstate how big Saturday's game against Tennessee is here.

4 - 14 | Texas Tech (20-6, 11-4) | Resume avg: 21.3 | Quality avg: 9
Tourneycast projection: 3.8
Up next: West Virginia (W -9)
Remaining: Houston (L +3), at Kansas (L +1), Colorado (W -18), at Arizona State (W -6)
Projected record: 23-8 (14-6)

4 - 15 | Purdue (19-8, 11-5) | Resume avg: 14.3 | Quality avg: 12.3
Tourneycast projection: 3.9
Up next: at Indiana (W -5)
Remaining: UCLA (W -6), Rutgers (W -15), at Illinois (L +3)
Projected record: 22-9, 14-6

4 - 16 | Michigan (20-5, 12-2) | Resume avg: 9.7 | Quality avg: 21.7
Tourneycast projection: 4.1
Up next: Michigan State (W -4)
Remaining: at Nebraska (W -2), Rutgers (W -13), Illinois (W -3), Maryland (W -3), at Michigan State (L +4)

A few things to look for here:

• Kentucky has an injury problem that could really hurt them in these next few games, especially this next one against Alabama. If Butler and Robinson don't play I'd guess they get absolutely housed by Alabama which would be significant. I think Torvik's model is overshooting on Kentucky anyway.
• I'm skeptical that Michigan State can meet their projection, but I've been skeptical of them all season and they keep winning so what can you do.
• If Arizona really does lose to Iowa State and Kansas I don't think their projected seed holds.
• Missouri is suddenly in great shape after beating Alabama last night, though I think their upcoming schedule is potentially some quicksand. They're likely favored in all five remaining games, but four of them are tricky games. I'd almost rather have a schedule like Auburn or we have.

The next group:

5 - 17 | Maryland (20-6, 10-5) | Resume avg: 24 | Quality avg: 15
Tourneycast projection: 4.4
Up next: USC (W -10)
Remaining: Michigan State (W -4), at Penn State (W -6), at Michigan (L +3), Northwestern (W -12)

5 - 18 | St. John's (23-4, 14-2) | Resume avg: 14.7 | Quality avg: 17
Tourneycast projection: 4.6
Up next: UCONN (W -7)
Remaining: at Butler (W -5), Seton Hall (W -23), at Marquette (L +1)

Weekend viewing guide: (projected seed), team we're for in bold

Thursday - 2/20
USC at Maryland (5) - 7:30 - FS1

Friday - 2/21
Marquette (5) at Villanova - 6:00 - FS1
Michigan State (3) at Michigan (4) - 7:00 - FOX

• We want one of these teams to smoke the other one and win the next matchup at the end of the season, but which one doesn't matter.

Saturday - 2/22
Tennessee (2) at Texas A&M (3) - 11 AM - ESPN

• About as big as games get. This is the second top ten home matchup in school history following the earlier game this season against Alabama.

Oregon (7) at Wisconsin (2) - 11 AM - FOX
West Virginia at Texas Tech (4) - 12 PM - ESPN+
Mississippi State (6) at Oklahoma (B-out) - 12 PM - SECN

• Doesn't really matter, but we played Oklahoma twice

***Seed watch game of the week***
Iowa State (4) vs Houston (1) - 1 PM - ESPN -

• We can change our minds here if we annihilate Tennessee, but much more likely that we're for Houston here.

Georgia (B - out) at Auburn (1) - 3 PM - ESPN

• We're not going to catch Auburn so this doesn't matter but an (extremely unlikely) win here puts Georgia back in the field

***Seed watch game of the week Pt. 2***
Kentucky (3) at Alabama (1) - 5 PM - ESPN -

• This is another one where maybe we flip if we convincingly beat Tennessee because another Alabama loss brings them back to us in the conference standings. I'm also not overly worried about Kentucky if we beat Tennessee.

Florida (1) at LSU - 5 PM - SECN
Duke (1) at Illinois (6) - 7 PM - FOX

• More worried about Illinois catching us if they win that worrying about catching Duke

Missouri (2) at Arkansas (B out) - 7 PM - ESPN
BYU (9) at Arizona - 9 PM - ESPN

Sunday 2/23
UCONN (8) at St. Johns (5) - 11 AM - FOX
Purdue (4) at Indiana (B out) - 12:30 PM - CBS

Monday 2/24
Michigan (4) at Nebraska - 7 PM - FS1
Houston (1) at Texas Tech (4) - 8 PM - ESPN

• If Iowa State beats Houston and we beat Tennessee I might change my mind here.

Great stuff, thanks! Kentucky is the only team on that list that just seems way out of place based on their metrics and projected record, yet the Tourneycast has them at a 3.1 seed. Finishing at 20-11 and 9-9 in conference and being the top 3 seed with projected resume and quality averages over 12 feels INSANE.

I cant fathom them being ahead of us or Zona based on those projections, and even above Iowa State and Tech seems wild (although ISU and Tech have really bad NCSOS).

What am I missing here as it pertains to Kentucky?

Cool stuff. Where are you getting your tourney cast projection numbers from? When I go to the below link I'm seeing different numbers than you, as well as different ranks.

https://barttorvik.com/tourneycast.php

Yeah that's why I said I think the model is overshooting on Kentucky also, but they do have some nice things in their pocket already. They beat Duke and they beat Tennessee twice. No bad losses and the loss at Clemson keeps getting better.

I just have a hard time imagining the committee giving a three seed to a team that's 9-9 in their own league, no matter how good the league is. But we'll see if they can pull off an upset or at least keep the Bama, Auburn and Missouri games close.

Also look out for Oklahoma here. I think that's potentially a good style matchup for the Sooners if they haven't completely given up already.

Torvik might have run the simulations again since I pulled the numbers earlier, takes a bit of time to put all this together, but let me update.

Edit: Updated. Now I think it's REALLY overshooting Kentucky's chances.

bobinator said:

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Torvik might have run the simulations again since I pulled the numbers earlier, takes a bit of time to put all this together, but let me update.

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No worries. Just was wondering if there was another page I wasn't looking at.

bobinator said:

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Torvik might have run the simulations again since I pulled the numbers earlier, takes a bit of time to put all this together, but let me update.

Edit: Updated. Now I think it's REALLY overshooting Kentucky's chances.

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That was quick! Okay that's in line with what I was seeing.

Why does the T-Ranketology page show different ranks than the TourneyCast page? Is the T-Ranketology more of a calculated average, while TourneyCast is based on simulations (10k as the page mentions)?

E.g. T-Rank has A&M as the 12th team, but TourneyCast has them as the 13th. I'm guessing if the simulations were run again, it could show A&M somewhere in the range of maybe 11th-13th? Just so happens this set of simulations put them at 13th?

This week I asked google gemini to use the seed watch text to inspire a western style landscape drawing and here's what it spit out:



Extremely deep. The seed watch is like predicting the shifting sands of the desert. While you can see and plan your path forward, you can't predict what the sands will do beneath your feet. In the distance is the promise of the NCAA Tournament looms, but you're not quite out of danger yet.

Yeah, T-ranketology is the current projection of each team, tourneycast uses a bunch of simulations of the remaining games of the season.

Nice bobinator! I updated my projection as well. I tend to overvalue Houston based on your prediction and Colleyville's.

1 seeds:
Auburn
Duke
Houston
Alabama

2 seeds:
Florida
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Arizona

3 seeds:
Purdue
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Michigan

4 seeds:
Michigan State
Kentucky
St. John's
Texas Tech

5 seeds:
Kansas
Mississippi State
Marquette
Missouri

6 seeds:
Louisville
Ole Miss
Maryland
Illinois

7 seeds:
Clemson
Oregon
Creighton
Baylor

8 seeds:
UCLA
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's
Ohio State

9 seeds:
BYU
UConn
Memphis
West Virginia

10 seeds:
Utah State
New Mexico
North Carolina
Nebraska

11 seeds:
VCU
Texas

Last 4 in:
SMU
Vanderbilt
Arkansas
San Diego State

First 4 Out:
Georgia
Wake Forest
Indiana
Oklahoma

If North Carolina makes the field then congress needs to ban the NCAA from expanding it.

That is a team that flat out sucks.

Related: South Carolina picks up their first SEC win this weekend

bobinator said:

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If North Carolina makes the field then congress needs to ban the NCAA from expanding it.

That is a team that flat out sucks.

Related: South Carolina picks up their first SEC win this weekend

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Yeah, I agree. I don't understand how my model keeps them in the field. I just think the bubble is extremely weak this year.

The last few years have taught us that the committee will adjust your seed by at least one line if you either scheduled a great non conference schedule or a terrible non conference schedule. We got maybe a 2 seed bump last year for it when everyone had us on the bubble.

Yeah, as we close in on Selection Sunday I'm going to throw in some things I consider human elements that aren't captured in these numbers but that we might be able to predict.

Like I think Tech, Missouri and Maryland could get killed for their non-con scheduling if they end up tightly bunched with other teams.

There's also some new wildcards. How much does the committee like the NCAA's own 'WAB' metric? You've got some teams with a fairly large delta between their WAB ranking and their actual NET ranking. We're one (6 vs 16) but Mississippi State is a really big one (10 vs 26.) And then some the other way (Arizona is 18 vs 9 and Duke is 8 vs 2).

Good stuff. Thanks!

Clearly, the game this Saturday at Reed looms large.

Protect our home court and we will be back as a solid 3... and knocking on the 2 door.

If we can beat Vandy at home after that and then somehow ALSO pull off the upset in Gainesville then we will break through that door and be back in to the 2-seed room...

But, first things first...

BTHO Tennessee!!!

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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Good stuff. Thanks!

Clearly, the game this Saturday at Reed looms large.

Protect our home court and we will be back as a solid 3... and knocking on the 2 door.

If we can beat Vandy at home after that and then somehow ALSO pull off the upset in Gainesville then we will break through that door and be back in to the 2-seed room...

But, first things first...

BTHO Tennessee!!!

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For the record, most of the guys I follow that do bracketology have held the Aggies in the 2 seed line after last nights loss.

so what all this means is there is a hell of a lot of basketball left. you would think 85% of the way through the season there wouldn't be so much undecided but there really is especially for sec teams.

t - cam said:

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Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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Good stuff. Thanks!

Clearly, the game this Saturday at Reed looms large.

Protect our home court and we will be back as a solid 3... and knocking on the 2 door.

If we can beat Vandy at home after that and then somehow ALSO pull off the upset in Gainesville then we will break through that door and be back in to the 2-seed room...

But, first things first...

BTHO Tennessee!!!

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For the record, most of the guys I follow that do bracketology have held the Aggies in the 2 seed line after last nights loss.

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As they should be. It's just one bad loss.

But we're also staring down the possibility of 3 more losses in the next 2 weeks. I think that's a difference in seeding based on this week and those (like above) projecting the end seeding.

great stuff

Yep. Tuesday's result didn't change our current resume much, but it did have a decent impact on our projection because adding in that data impacted our projected results against the remaining high level opponents.

That's why I felt like it was worth it for the board to have both. You can use the Seed Watch to kind of look at results and see if they're above or below the projections and the Bubble Watch to see current resumes. Like if Alabama beats Kentucky by 9, that's exactly what's projected so it's not going to change the outlook for either team much.

I agree that if the tournament were today we would still be a 2 seed. We're just really strong in the resume metrics. But our projection right now is worse than that not so much because our resume metrics are going to go down, but others are going to go up.

AgLA06 said:

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t - cam said:

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Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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Good stuff. Thanks!

Clearly, the game this Saturday at Reed looms large.

Protect our home court and we will be back as a solid 3... and knocking on the 2 door.

If we can beat Vandy at home after that and then somehow ALSO pull off the upset in Gainesville then we will break through that door and be back in to the 2-seed room...

But, first things first...

BTHO Tennessee!!!

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For the record, most of the guys I follow that do bracketology have held the Aggies in the 2 seed line after last nights loss.

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As they should be. It's just one bad loss.

But we're also staring down the possibility of 3 more losses in the next 2 weeks. I think that's a difference in seeding based on this week and those (like above) projecting the end seeding.

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Yep

I'm thinking we'll need to ho at least 3-2 down the stretch to be a 2/3 seed

Go 2-3 and I think we're slipping to a 4

So basically beat vs vandy, lsu and one of Tennessee, Auburn or Florida and I think we're a 3 at worst

We'll know soon enough if Houston is worthy of a #1 seed when they play against Iowa St.

Quote:

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I'm thinking we'll need to ho at least 3-2 down the stretch to be a 2/3 seed

Go 2-3 and I think we're slipping to a 4

So basically beat vs vandy, lsu and one of Tennessee, Auburn or Florida and I think we're a 3 at worst

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2-3 vs 3-2 isn't as important as how those games go. 2-3 but we lose to Tennessee, Florida and Auburn all in very close games? Still a chance at a 3.

3-2 with a very close win over Tennessee, but we only beat Vandy by a couple and squeak out a win against LSU and get absolutely hammered by Auburn and Florida? Could be a 4.

Keeping the game against Florida close is as important as beating Tennessee if we want to stay a 3 or better.

NyAggie said:

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AgLA06 said:

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t - cam said:

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Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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Good stuff. Thanks!

Clearly, the game this Saturday at Reed looms large.

Protect our home court and we will be back as a solid 3... and knocking on the 2 door.

If we can beat Vandy at home after that and then somehow ALSO pull off the upset in Gainesville then we will break through that door and be back in to the 2-seed room...

But, first things first...

BTHO Tennessee!!!

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For the record, most of the guys I follow that do bracketology have held the Aggies in the 2 seed line after last nights loss.

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As they should be. It's just one bad loss.

But we're also staring down the possibility of 3 more losses in the next 2 weeks. I think that's a difference in seeding based on this week and those (like above) projecting the end seeding.

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Yep

I'm thinking we'll need to ho at least 3-2 down the stretch to be a 2/3 seed

Go 2-3 and I think we're slipping to a 4

So basically beat vs vandy, lsu and one of Tennessee, Auburn or Florida and I think we're a 3 at worst

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All the more reason to go 2-0 at home these next two games - getting one high end win and one "shouldn't lose" in the books...

GrayMatter said:

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We'll know soon enough if Houston is worthy of a #1 seed when they play against Iowa St.

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This is kind of what I'm talking about, based on the current projections, even if they beat Iowa State by ten points, it doesn't change the projection much, but Iowa State even playing that game close would hurt Houston.

An absolutely massive game for all sorts of teams is that Houston/Tech game in Lubbock on Monday.

Is the committee going to release the top 16 every Saturday now? Or was that a one time thing?

I think they just do it the once.

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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NyAggie said:

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AgLA06 said:

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t - cam said:

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Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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Good stuff. Thanks!

Clearly, the game this Saturday at Reed looms large.

Protect our home court and we will be back as a solid 3... and knocking on the 2 door.

If we can beat Vandy at home after that and then somehow ALSO pull off the upset in Gainesville then we will break through that door and be back in to the 2-seed room...

But, first things first...

BTHO Tennessee!!!

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For the record, most of the guys I follow that do bracketology have held the Aggies in the 2 seed line after last nights loss.

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As they should be. It's just one bad loss.

But we're also staring down the possibility of 3 more losses in the next 2 weeks. I think that's a difference in seeding based on this week and those (like above) projecting the end seeding.

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Yep

I'm thinking we'll need to ho at least 3-2 down the stretch to be a 2/3 seed

Go 2-3 and I think we're slipping to a 4

So basically beat vs vandy, lsu and one of Tennessee, Auburn or Florida and I think we're a 3 at worst

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All the more reason to go 2-0 at home these next two games - getting one high end win and one "shouldn't lose" in the books...

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Yep

That's what I'm thinking. Get tgst Tennessee win a d then the vandy win and you're out yourself in a pretty good spot

I don't think it's a stretch to say that this weeks game against Tennessee is for at least a seed line difference come selection Sunday.

Chances of a 3 seed still? Or most likely a 4?

Can only lose one more and be a 3 I think, though that's a massive oversimplification. Obviously depends on a lot of other teams because those seed lines are crowded

What is the record of teams after they play A&M?

Mississippi State down by 8 with 318 seconds left to... let me check the score sheet...Oklahoma.

I kinda liked that matchup for Oklahoma anyway though

3-1 I think could still give you a shot at the 2 line. Wisconsin and Michigan have already lost this weekend and Iowa St is likely too as well. I'd be surprised to see UK win today. That's a lot of the teams around us taking losses.
MSU likely moves up solidly with the win over Michigan and we'll see what Mizzou does tonight in Fayetteville.

Yeah it's not impossible I just think it's unlikely.